Check out our tips and predictions for the 2024 AFL Grand Final

Nearly seven months after the season kicked off with its latest fixturing quirk, ‘Opening Round’, we are down to just two teams. The Swans, two years after being pumped by the Cats in the 2022 Grand Final, return for their second shot at the flag in three years, while the Lions will attempt to atone for their own Grand Final defeat, theirs having come just 12 months ago and by less than a kick. The two have taken extremely different paths to the last Saturday in September, both during the home and away season and in the finals, but that all counts for nought come the bounce. Four quarters and 120 minutes will determine the fates of these two teams, so let’s dive right in and take a look at how the 2024 AFL Grand Final is shaping up.

AFL 2024 Grand Final Prediction

No one would begrudge either of these two teams being in the Grand Final. Certainly there have been other teams which would be worthy participants on the AFL’s biggest day, but there is a case to be made that these have been the best teams in the league for the longest periods this year, even if one of them didn’t even make the top four. Because while the Lions fell short of earning the double chance, they were only half a game behind the Power in 2nd and had a superior percentage to all of those three teams immediately above them, and having started off 0-3 they did well just to get that close. Last year’s runners-up started the season slowly and with four of their starting 22 going down with ACL injuries, appeared for some time to be up against it to even get close to repeating their efforts from last year. But they eased into the season nicely, overcoming those injuries and setting up their season with just one loss from 13 games through the middle-latter stages of the year. It was always going to be tough for them to get through to the Grand Final from outside the top four, and it proved to be exactly that, but here they are. Following a comfortable win over the Blues in the Elimination Final, they have done things the hard way over the past fortnight, but the character of this team has been evident in that time. After overcoming a 44-point deficit against the Giants in the semi, they played out one of the more extraordinary games of the season against the Cats last week, but ended up ten points ahead when the final siren sounded after a final few minutes filled with pivotal moments.

For the Swans, it has all been a little more straightforward. That’s not to say they haven’t had their issues this year – five losses in six games nearing the finals threatened to cost them top spot on the ladder, which they had appeared to have sewn up months out from the finals. But though they didn’t quite return to their sizzling best, they recaptured their winning form just when they needed to and still ended up a couple of games clear. They can thank their first 14 games of the year for that, a period during which they lost just one game while no other team was really putting their hand up as a clear second best, meaning that for much of the season the Swans have held the mantle of comfortable Premiership favourite. But like with the Lions, the Giants threatened to spoil their plans when they took a hefty lead late in the third quarter. Also like the Lions, however, the Swans stormed home and snatched victory from the jaws of defeat with two goals in the dying minutes to win by six points, booking a home Preliminary Final in which any team in the league was going to find it very difficult to beat them. So it proved for the Power. Port came into that Preliminary Final on the back of a stirring semi-final win against the Hawks and having won eight on the trot against the Bloods, but Sydney flexed its collective muscle to win that game by seven goals and book the Grand Final spot which they have appeared destined to occupy for much of the season.

There is so much to like about both of these teams. The Swans’ clear one-wood is in the midfield, where Isaac Heeney, Errol Gulden and Chad Warner form one of the most potent 1-2-3 punches in footy, each of them bringing vastly different strengths to the table. They might not have a standout tall forward, but in Joel Amartey, Logan McDonald and Hayden McLean they have enough, while the likes of Tom Papley and veteran Luke Parker provide plenty up forward for them too, and down back they have an experienced group led by the likes of Tom McCartin, Dane Rampe and Jake Lloyd, with Nick Blakey causing plenty of damage with his run and penetration.

The Lions, meanwhile, arguably don’t have as dominant a section of the park as what the Swans boast in the midfield, but what they do have is incredible balance and a lot of match-winners. There’s Lachie Neale, Hugh McCluggage and Josh Dunkley in the middle; Joe Daniher, Charlie Cameron and the much-underrated Callum Ah Chee up forward; Harris Andrews and Brandon Starcevich down back; and perhaps the biggest match-winner of them all, former number one pick Cam Rayner in the midst of clearly the best season of his career and on the back of a phenomenal, game-changing second half against the Cats.

The Lions have had the wood over the Swans in recent times, winning five of the last six games between the two, but that really doesn’t count for much. For the first time, these two long-standing clubs which relocated interstate a few decades ago will face off at the MCG on Grand Final Day, removing any home ground advantage – not that it’s been all that significant in games between the two recently anyway. They have met just once this year, in Brisbane, and it was one of the better games of the season, the home team ending up victorious by just two points. It’s very easy to envision a similarly tight result this weekend.

Both of these teams have unfinished business having suffered Grand Final losses in the past three years, and both of them have plenty of players capable of turning the game in the blink of an eye. The Swans have been the best team in the league at their best this year, but the Lions’ best has been not too far off the pace, and they have played a couple of very, very high-quality games over the past fortnight. We say it every year, but this shapes up as a belter of a Grand Final. It will be hard to top last year’s, but this could very easily go close, and it’s tough to imagine either of these sides winning this one by much. It will be tough, it will be physical, and it will very possibly go down to the wire, and as it so often does this Grand Final will likely come down to who can take their moments. It’s hard to imagine the likes of Heeney and Warner shirking the bright lights, while Rayner’s love for the big moments is becoming increasingly clear and Daniher’s credentials in big games is growing by the year. I’m picking this one to be tight at quarter time, tight at half-time and tight at three-quarter time, and in a pulsating final quarter, the Lions can do what they couldn’t last year and have their noses in front when the final siren for the year goes.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Lions to win	$2.10
	Cam Rayner to win the Norm Smith Medal	$26.00
	Either team by 15 points or less	$2.70

Predicted Squads

Sydney Swans: FB: Dane Rampe, Tom McCartin, Nick Blakey HB: Jake Lloyd, Lewis Melican, Oliver Florent C: Justin McInerney, Chad Warner, Errol Gulden HF: Luke Parker, Logan McDonald, James Jordon FF: Tom Papley, Joel Amartey, Will Hayward FO: Brodie Grundy, Isaac Heeney, James Rowbottom I/C: Matthew Roberts, Callum Mills, Hayden McLean, Harry Cunningham, Braeden Campbell

Brisbane Lions: FB: Dayne Zorko, Harris Andrews, Brandon Starcevich HB: Darcy Wilmot, Jack Payne, Ryan Lester C: Jaspa Fletcher, Hugh McCluggage, Jarrod Berry HF: Cameron Rayner, Joe Daniher, Zac Bailey FF: Charlie Cameron, Eric Hipwood, Kai Lohmann FO: Darcy Fort, Josh Dunkley, Lachie Neale I/C: Callum Ah Chee, Will Ashcroft, Logan Morris, Noah Answerth, Conor McKenna

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