AFL 2024 Season Winner Betting Preview – Odds, Tips & Predictions

After an extraordinary semi-final weekend, just four teams remain in the race for the 2024 AFL Premiership, and none of them would be an undeserving winner in a fortnight’s time. The Swans and the Cats are the best placed having won their Qualifying Finals and secured home Preliminary Finals as a result, both of which will be against interstate teams, but given the Swans are playing a team which has beaten them eight times in a row and the Cats might be facing the most in-form team in the league, neither of them is even close to a guarantee just to get to the Grand Final. Below, we will take an in-depth look at all four teams left in the Premiership race, and try to discern which among them offers the best value to win it all.

Updated: 19 September, 2024

It’s been an interesting season for the Swans, but after all their ups and downs of the past few months, they find themselves with a home Preliminary Final and as a relatively short-priced favourite to win the flag. For the first three or four months of the year, of course, they were clearly the best team in the league, with Isaac Heeney, Errol Gulden and Chad Warner leading the way as one of the most diverse and talented trios in the league. But with top spot seemingly locked up months out from the end of the home and away season, they suddenly fell in a heap. It started with a couple of close losses for which they could clearly be forgiven, but some more legitimate cracks began to show when the Bulldogs beat them by 39 points to make it four losses in five weeks. But those cracks were blown wide open the next week against the Port Adelaide side they will play in the Preliminary Final. The Power put on an extraordinary show against the team which most believed was streets ahead of any other in the league, booting the first 71 (!!) points of the game before ultimately running out 112-point winners in perhaps the best display of the season. The Swans looked set to fall to a sixth loss in seven weeks the next round against the Pies, but they stormed home in the last to win by three points, and they haven’t lost since. Despite that winning form, however, it’s safe to say that they are far from the unstoppable force they were over the first 14 weeks of the season. They beat the Bombers and the Crows to secure top spot, while in their Qualifying Final appeared destined for defeat against their cross-town rivals in the Giants. But they stormed home in the last, as they did against the Magpies, led by a dominant match from Heeney and a brilliant last quarter from Warner, and two goals in the last couple of minutes of the game saw them grab a famous six-point win. That saw them avoid what would have been a very difficult semi-final against the Lions, and gives them instead a home prelim against the Power. 

They are relatively comfortable favourites for that game, but they cannot afford to take it lightly – nor will they be, given the Power have beaten them an incredible eight times in a row. Of course, that doesn’t necessarily count for much in this particular game, but it will be no doubt in the back of their collective minds, particularly if things are tight late in the game. Still, they deserve to be favourites, and if they do salute will head down to the MCG for the second Grand Final in three years – potentially against the team that beat them so convincingly in the last one. The biggest thing in the Swans favour is that their best footy this year has been the best footy, and if they can find it they will be really tough to beat. But it’s also worth noting that they haven’t really played at that level for a few months. They deserve to be Premiership favourites, but they are perhaps a little shorter than they should be.

• What brings them here? The Swans have been brilliant all year, bouncing back from a disappointing 2023 after making the Grand Final in 2022, though things have been more of a slog for them over the latter stages of the season than they were early on.
• What has changed? The Swans had a number of significant retirements, none more so than Lance Franklin, who was joined in hanging up the boots by Tom Hickey and Paddy McCartin. Dylan Stephens was traded to the Kangaroos, but the Swans picked up a couple of big names in Taylor Adams and Brodie Grundy, as well as James Jordon and Joel Hamling.
• Injury update: The biggest concern for the Swans is captain Callum Mills, who injured his hamstring at training following Sydney’s Qualifying Final win. He will miss the Preliminary Final, and appears to be 50-50 to play in the Grand Final if they get there.

Bet on the Swans to win the AFL Premiership @ $2.40 with PlayUp 

Few people had the Cats right up there in Premiership favouritism for most of the year – they were right in amongst the raft of teams sitting behind the Swans throughout the season. But in an incredibly tight finish to the home and away season, they snuck into the top four to secure what loomed as a difficult game on the road against the Power. As it turned out, it wasn’t so difficult at all. The Cats entered that game as underdogs, but instead systematically dismantled the team which finished 2nd on the ladder. It was an incredible display from Chris Scott’s men, who ran out 84-point winners in what was the best performance of the finals to date. This is a team in an interesting transition period, with some of their old hands – namely Jeremy Cameron, Tom Stewart and Mark Blicavs – still right among their most pivotal players, but a newer brigade led by the likes of Max Holmes, the Henry brothers, Tyson Stengle and many more also playing pivotal roles. Courtesy of that dominant win, they will not have to leave Victoria again this season, with a home Preliminary Final, while the Grand Final, should they make it, will obviously be at the MCG.

As always they will have to play their Preliminary Final in Melbourne rather than Geelong, but given they are playing the Lions they will still have a fairly significant home ground advantage. Unfortunately for them, the Lions have arguably been the best team in the league over the second half of the year and will enter the game riding a wave of momentum following an extraordinary come from behind victory against the Giants. That is going to be an extremely difficult clash for the Cats, as will a potential Grand Final matchup with either a Swans team which has been better than anyone throughout the entirety of the year, or a Power team that would have just beaten that team if they are in the Grand Final. Many would have seen the Cats as a good team, but not necessarily good enough entering the finals – the quintessential Preliminary Final team that they have been for so long. But that performance against the Power could not possibly have been more impressive. If they play that way for the next fortnight, it’s very difficult to see how anybody will beat them, but so little separates all of the remaining teams that it is difficult to see them being able to win in such a convincing manner again. Still, the Cats are well and truly in the mix, and are the only team left that will be playing a potential Grand Final in their home state. A second Grand Final win in third years seems like an incredible prospect given they have certainly not been a dominant team in that time, but they are right in with a chance of doing that. They don’t look like the best value in this market, but it would be no surprise to see them win the flag.

• What brings them here? The Cats crept into the top four just at the end of the season, while their incredible Qualifying Final performance gave their Premiership credentials a massive, massive boost.
• What has changed? The Cats lost Norm Smith Medalist Isaac Smith to retirement while Jonathan Ceglar also hung up the boots, and Esava Ratugolea was traded to the Power. They didn’t acquire any major names, with their ins all via the drafts. 
• Injury update: Tom Stewart should be fine to return for the Preliminary Final after missing the Qualifying Final through illness, while Gary Rohan looks unlikely to be available again this year after he suffered a fractured skull.
  

Bet on the Cats to win the AFL Premiership @ $3.75 with UniBet

After the heartbreak of last year’s Grand Final, the Lions took a little while to get going in season 2024. Once they did, however, they have looked every bit the team that got to within a kick of winning last year’s Premiership. Once we hit May, they flicked a switch, losing just once in 13 games to put themselves in a great position to secure a double chance. Unfortunately, a Round 22 loss to the Giants was followed by a one-point defeat to the Magpies the next week, and as a result they fell just short of the top four. Indicative of how tight the ladder was, the Lions were just half a game in arrears or Port in 2nd, and with a far superior percentage, but with three teams sitting on 15-8 they ended up in 5th and needing to go the long way round to go one better than last year. But they are well on their way to doing just that. They handled their business at home against the Blues in the Elimination Final with relative ease, though their clash with the Giants the next week was not nearly as straightforward. Down by 44 points in the third quarter their season seemed all but finished, but five quick goals and an incredible last quarter – Joe Daniher the hero with two fantastic goals in the dying minutes – saw them snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. They now enter the Preliminary Final with their tails up, and given how dangerous this side is at the best of times, with the wave of momentum they are riding they are going to be really tough to beat.

Of course, if they’re to win the flag they will have to do so with two consecutive wins in Melbourne, the first of which will need to come against the Cats in the Preliminary Final. Given how Geelong played in their Qualifying Final, when they beat the Power by 84 points in Adelaide, that will not be easy. But there is a strong argument to be made that, despite the fact that the Cats finished higher than the Lions and despite their incredible performance in their last game, the Lions have been the superior team all year. The Cats have plenty of experience, but equally there is a lot of youth in their side, while the Lions, though not an old team, have been in the Premiership mix for years. If it were not for their poor start to the year they would have comfortably finished top four, and having gone so close last year they clearly have it in them to go all the way. Further aiding the Lions is that if they do beat the Cats, they will not be suffering from any home ground disadvantage in the Grand Final, given they will play either the Swans or the Lions. They enter this game against the Cats as the slight underdogs and if they play the Swans should they get to the Grand Final they will likely be slight underdogs again, but part of the reason this Lions side is viewed as below those teams is simply that they have had to take the long route having not finished top four. But however they got there, Brisbane is in the Preliminary Final, and have proved that their best footy is as good as anyone’s. There is no reason to think that they are not right up there with the best chances to win the flag out of these four, and as the third favourite they might just be the best value.

• What brings them here? The Lions started the season slowly after making last year’s Grand Final, but since those opening rounds they have rarely lost and have looked lethal at their best.
• What has changed? Jack Gunston and Daniel Rich retired, while their ins included Tom Doedee from Adelaide and Brandon Ryan from Hawthorn.
• Injury update: The Lions haven’t been at full strength all year as a result of a quartet of ACL injuries suffered earlier this year, and if they’re to win the flag will have to do so without Keidean Coleman, Lincoln McCarthy, Darcy Gardiner and Tom Doedee. 

Bet on the Lions to win the AFL Premiership @ $4.00 with PlayUp

I said earlier that it’s difficult to separate the four Preliminary Finalists, but the bookies seem happy to have the Power sitting right at the back of the pack – and by some way, too. Port fans could probably feel aggrieved at that given that they finished in 2nd, though there is no doubt that their performance in their Qualifying Final against the Cats has played a big role in the way that they were perceived. Overall in their two finals to date they have an aggregate of -81, but still they have managed to work their way into the prelims. Of course, that came about courtesy of a thrilling game against the Hawks in which they snatched victory by just three points, and while it could be argued that beating the team that finished 7th, in Adelaide no less, doesn’t bode particularly well for their Premiership chances, the Hawks’ boundless enthusiasm had seen them virtually unbeatable for the last few months. The Power played a hell of a lot better in that game than they did the week prior, thanks in no small part to a much improved showing from their extremely talented midfield, but they will need to improve even further if they are to give themselves a chance of making it through to the Grand Final.

Zak Butters, Connor Rozee and Jason Horne-Francis might be a wildly talented midfield trio, but they will have their work cut out against the likes of Errol Gulden, Isaac Heeney and Chad Warner, with Brodie Grundy putting the ball down their collective throats no less. But while the visitors will head to Sydney as the clear underdogs, they have history on their side. Incredibly, they have beaten the Swans in eight consecutive meetings, and of course, it was they who put the sword to the Premiership favourites a few weeks ago when they won by 112 points in a remarkable display. Of course, history is just that, but there is no doubt that record will give them some sort of mental boost, and if they can knock off the Swans in Sydney then they are obviously every chance of taking out this year’s Premiership. The Power are far from a perfect team, but they have a hell of a lot of talent in their midfield, plenty of nice pieces up forward and have been one of the best defensive teams in the league all year. They probably deserve to be ranked last out of these four remaining teams in no small part due to the fact that they have to face the Swans in Sydney in their Preliminary Final, but they do look a little bit over the odds. From a pure value perspective, they are not the worst bet by any means at $9, even if they do seem like the most unlikely team to win the flag from here.

• What brings them here?  The Power were under plenty of pressure a few months ago, but a strong back half of the season and a tight semi-final win have seen them work their way into the final four.
• What has changed? The Power did a bit last off-season, bringing in Esava Ratugolea, Brandon Zerk-Thatcher, Ivan Soldo and Jordon Sweet. Xavier Duursma was traded to the Bombers, while Tom Jonas and Scott Lycett retired.  
• Injury update: Port don’t exactly have a full list to choose from, with each of Sam Powell-Pepper, Trent McKenzie and Jeremy Finlayson unavailable for the rest of the season through injury, and Dan Houston through suspension. Todd Marshall is out with concussion for the prelim, but if they win through to the Grand Final could be available, and likewise Kane Farrell.

Bet on the Power to win the AFL Premiership @ $9.00 with PlayUp

It’s set to be an intriguing two weeks to round out what has been a phenomenally close season, and it’s no surprise that it is pretty difficult to pick a winner. The odds for the Premiership market are fair in terms of their order, but the Swans do look a little short and the Power a little long. Sydney, at their best, is going to be extremely difficult to beat, but they are gettable and at just over $2 needing to beat two very good teams they are hard to justify backing. The Power, meanwhile, are going to need to play out of their skins to win the flag, but are pretty juicy at $9. Sitting in the middle, however, the best value looks like the Lions. There is a good argument to be made that they have been the best team in the league since around two months into the season, and even though they didn’t finish top four, they were right on the heels of those teams that did and are in the Preliminary Finals regardless of how they got there. They have to travel both weeks to win, but they are more than good enough to do it and could easily be shorter odds than they currently are. No one would begrudge them winning a flag after last year’s heartbreak, and it would be no surprise to see them do exactly that.