AFL 2024 Top 8 Betting Preview - Odds & Expert Predictions

With just a week to go in what has been one of the tightest AFL seasons in recent memories, there are ten teams to fit into eight spots and still five different teams that could potentially miss out on September action. Last year’s reigning Premiers are hanging on by a thread and will need a hell of a lot to go right in Round 24 to jump into the top eight, but above them there is very little likely to separate the teams vying for 8th position. Below, we take a look at the five teams who could still either make or miss the finals with one week to go in the 2024 season. 

After starting 0-5 and seemingly destined for another year in the bottom four, the Hawks have been arguably the best team in the league – something nobody could have predicted after that start. As exciting a team to watch as any, the young Hawks have lost just three games after the first seven weeks of the season, and two of those losses were by two points or less. Given that poor start, it took them a long time to actually work their way into the top eight despite the fact that they were winning every week, but they have got there just in the nick of time and would now have to endure a monumental meltdown to fall out. It is still possible; if they lose in Round 24, all it would take is for the Dockers to beat the Power, and the Blues to either beat the Saints or lose but make up around 1% on the Hawks, for Hawthorn to fall to 9th. Fortunately for the Hawks, however, they take on the 17th placed Kangaroos fresh off a 96-point loss to the Western Bulldogs in Round 24. The Roos have been really competitive at times this season, but they have still won just three games all year and will be dreaming of the off-season. Even if the Hawks lose that game they will still be odds on to make the finals – though there will be a very real chance that they drop out – but it’s really hard to imagine any result in that game other than a big Hawthorn win. At $1.01 there is absolutely no point in backing the Hawks to make the finals, but they will almost certainly be playing in September. 

• What brings them here? The Hawks have been phenomenal after the first month or two of the season, with their high octane game style proving extremely hard for virtually every opponent they have come across to stop. 
  
• What has changed? The Hawks traded Tyler Brockman, Jacob Koschitzke and Brandon Ryan in the off-season, but brought in plenty. Massimo D’Ambrosio has been one of the pick-ups of the year coming over from the Bombers, Mabior Chol another after he was picked up from the Suns, while Jack Ginnivan has been a pivotal part of their talented young forward line after being traded from the Magpies. Calsher Dear and Nick Watson have been quality pick-ups from the draft. 
  
• Injury report. Mitch Lewis won’t play again this year after doing his ACL, joining James Blanck, who did the same at the beginning of the season. Will Day has a collarbone injury that he should be able to return from in the finals, while Changkuoth Jiath has a nagging calf injury but should be available for finals. 

Bet on the Hawks to make the finals @ $1.01 with PlayUp

If you need an example of just how tight this AFL season is, look no further than the Bulldogs. After a really strong couple of months, they were second favourites for the Premiership just three or four weeks out from finals, even as they sat on the precipice of the top eight. But one bad loss to the Crows in Round 22 means that they won’t finish top four barring a miracle, and will have to do it the hard way if they’re to win the flag – though that’s not a notion they’re entirely unfamiliar with given they did it in 2016, and made the Grand Final from outside the top four in 2021. First things first, however, they have to actually make the finals. Heading into the final round of the season in 6th, they are benefited by a really strong percentage, but with only half a game separating them from the Dockers in 9th the prospect of them missing finals is still very much in play. Of course, the Bulldogs’ destiny is in their own hands; if they win in Round 24 they are guaranteed a spot in September, but their task is not an easy one. They take on a red-hot Giants team which has won seven consecutive games, a game which could realistically go either way. If the Dogs end up losing that, they will miss the finals if the Hawks beat the Kangaroos – which they almost certainly will – the Blues beat the Saints, and the Dockers beat the Power. That means that four different results need to go the wrong way for the Dogs to miss the finals – including them losing themselves – which is unlikely, but individually each of those results is very possible. The Dogs have been playing really good footy for a long time, deserve to play finals and are a good chance of beating the Giants to guarantee a finals spot, but at such short odds they’re definitely not worth backing to make the eight. 

• What brings them here? Seemingly headed for another topsy turvy year, the Dogs have hit form over the back half of the year and rarely put in a bad performance, though in such a tight year it’s still not been enough to get them all that far up the ladder. 
  
• What has changed? The Dogs didn’t lose too much over the off-season, with Jordon Sweet traded and Josh Bruce retiring – aside from that, every other loss was a delisting. They picked up Lachie Bramble, Nick Coffield and James Harmes, while Ryley Sanders was picked with number 6 in the draft. 
  
• Injury report. Bailey Smith has not and will not play all season, while Jason Johannisen is in a race against time to return from a long-term calf injury but should be available for finals. Rhylee West should be back for finals from a jaw injury too, while Tim English has missed a couple of games late in the season but will be around for finals. 

Bet on the Bulldogs to make the top eight @ $1.06 with PlayUp

After seemingly establishing themselves as the second best team in the league a few short weeks ago, the Blues would not have been expecting to find themselves fighting for a finals spot entering the last round of the home and away season. But that’s exactly where they are at. They lost five out of six games starting with a defeat to the Giants, only beating the Kangaroos in that time, and in the last of those losses suffered an incredible number of injuries to important players. That left them short-handed in a must-win Round 23 clash with the Eagles in Perth, but their leaders responded emphatically to record a 65-point victory and leave their destiny in their own hands heading into the final round. Entering Round 24 they sat in 8th spot, level with the Hawks and Dogs for wins but with an inferior percentage, and half a game ahead of the Dockers. With a game against the Saints to come in Round 24, they can secure their finals spot with a win, but if they lose then they will likely miss the finals if the Dockers beat the Power. Their game against the Saints looms as an interesting one. The Blues are a far better team, but have been in poor form and will still be without a host of their best players. The Saints, meanwhile, have been playing some of their best footy of the year in recent weeks with nothing much to play for, and are more than capable of playing spoiler. The situation is simple; the Blues miss the finals if they lose and the Dockers win, and almost certainly make it otherwise. They will be expecting to beat the Saints while the Dockers’ game looks like a 50/50 prospect, so a $1.25 price for the Blues to make the finals seems about right. But once again, with a fair bit of uncertainty surrounding the last round, it’s probably not worth a punt on the Blues at those odds. 

• What brings them here? The Blues looked like they had locked up a finals spot weeks ago, but a bunch of losses in quick succession have seen them battling for a spot in the lower reaches of the eight. 
  
• What has changed? Ed Curnow retired after last season, while Paddy Dow and Zac Fisher were both traded. Elijah Hollands was traded in from the Suns, while Orazio Fantasia was picked up as a delisted free agent. 
  
• Injury report. Where to start? Entering the final round the Blues have 19 players on their injury list. Charlie Curnow, Harry McKay, Jack Martin, Mitch McGovern, Orazio Fantasia, Adam Saad, Tom De Koning and Adam Cerra to name a few are racing against time to get back for the last round or at least the finals, if they make it. Sam Docherty and Jack Silvagni have both been out for the year for a long time with knee injuries. 

Bet on the Blues to make the top eight @ $1.25 with PlayUp

If the Dockers miss the finals, it will be a massive disappointment given that they have at various times this year shown themselves to be every bit a Premiership contender – entering the last round of the year, however, it is more likely than not that they will. Close losses are going to come back to bite Freo; they endured a couple of them earlier in the season, while the three consecutive losses between Rounds 21 and 23 all came by 11 points or less, shovelling them from a seemingly probably top four finish to 9th spot with a week to go. They play the last game of Round 24, and it is very possible that their fate will already be decided by that point. To have any chance of jumping inside the top eight, they most likely need one of the Bulldogs, Hawks, or Blues to lose – they could also theoretically take the Lions’ spot, but that would take a massive turnaround in percentage. Unfortunately for Freo, the Hawks will almost certainly win, though it is very plausible for both the Dogs or Blues to go down. That alone won’t be enough though; if any of those teams does go down, the Dockers will then need to win their Sunday night clash against the 2nd placed Power. Clearly that won’t be easy given the form Port Adelaide have been in, but the gap between those two teams is realistically pretty minimal and a hell of a lot less than their respective ladder positions would suggest, so at Optus Stadium, if a finals spot is there for the taking then the Dockers will fancy themselves a good chance. There is a fair bit that needs to go their way in Round 24 and unfortunately their fate is not in their own hands, but at longer odds they look like a decent bet. 

• What brings them here? The Dockers have looked set to play finals for most of the year, but three consecutive losses right when they could not afford them have put their backs against the wall. 
  
• What has changed? The Dockers traded out Lachie Schultz and Liam Henry, while they brought in Jeremy Sharp from the Gold Coast. 
  
• Injury report. Alex Pearce and Josh Treacy will both be out until the finals if the Dockers get there, while Sean Darcy is a test for their last game of the home and away season. 

Bet on the Dockers to make the top eight @ $2.65 with PlayUp

Despite their bad start to the season, it’s hard to fathom that the Magpies will almost certainly miss the finals given where they were just a few short weeks ago. They fought back beautifully from a 0-3 start and seemed destined to finish in the top four and once again have a crack at the Premiership, but they have fallen off a cliff and have basically been out of contention for the past couple of weeks. A stunning one-point win over the Lions in Round 23 kept them mathematically in the hunt heading into the final round, but a hell of a lot needs to go right and even that won’t likely be enough. They are a full game and more than 10% outside of the final eight with one game to go, meaning that not only do they need the results themselves to go right, they also need to make up around 200 points on either the Blues or the Hawks. Given the Hawks are playing the Kangaroos, that won’t happen with them, so they’re reliant on the Blues getting absolutely pumped (as well as the Dockers losing), and then the Pies themselves smacking the Demons likely be well in excess of 100 points. Mathematically it is possible, but in reality, it is not going to happen. The reigning Premiers, for the second time in a row, are going to miss the finals.  

• What brings them here? The Magpies lost four games on the trot starting with an 11-point defeat to the Suns in Round 17, and have not been able to make their way back into the eight since.  
  
• What has changed? The Magpies lost Taylor Adams and Jack Ginnivan to trades, while Lachie Schultz joined the fray. 
  
• Injury report. Jordan De Goey and Harvey Harrison have been out for the year for a few weeks, and Tom Mitchell for a long time. Brody Mihocek also won’t play again this year barring a miracle run by the Pies, nor will Ash Johnson. 

Bet on the Magpies to make the top eight @ $41.00 with PlayUp 

With only one round to go in the season, it’s no great surprise that it’s difficult to find all that much value in this market, but by the process of elimination there is one clear standout. The Magpies are not going to play finals, and each of the Hawks, Bulldogs and Blues are too short to back given it’s still realistic that they miss out. That leaves the Dockers. Clearly they do need a lot to go right in the final round, but all of the outcomes that they need are individually very much on the cards, and at comfortably in excess of $2.00 they are clearly the pick here if you’re going to bet on this market.