Manchester United boss Erik ten Hag said after his club’s Manchester Derby loss last week that he didn’t think the gap between Man United and Man City was that big. The scoreline and underlying stats say otherwise.
The Red Devils lost 3-1 and had just one shot on target against the Cityzens. They should have an easier time of things against Sean Dyche’s Everton at home, but it could be a difficult fixture if Man United’s attack is as toothless as it was against City.
Everton have allowed just 19 goals away from home this season. Only Arsenal, Liverpool, and Man City have allowed fewer. Man United should still have enough to get the win here, but we don’t expect a lot of goals. Betting the under is the best bet for this match.
Man Utd: Onana; Dalot, Varane, Maguire, Lindelof; Casemiro, Mainoo, McTominay; Fernandes, Rashford, Garnacho
Everton: Pickford; Godfrey, Tarkowski, Branthwaite, Mykolenko; Harrison, Onana, Garner, McNeil; Doucoure; Calvert-Lewin
Crystal Palace’s new manager Oliver Glasner got a real taste of what the Premier League is all about last week when Palace lost 3-1 to Ange Postecoglou and his Tottenham side. On paper, playing Luton Town this week should be easier for the Eagles, but the Hatters have caused bigger sides problems all season.
Luton Town almost held Aston Villa to a 2-2 draw last week. An 89th-minute winner from Lucas Digne cost them that result, but it was a strong showing from the Hatters.
Palace lost 2-1 to Luton back in November at Kenilworth Road. The Eagles out possessed and outshot Luton in that match, but they missed two clear chances.
Glasner’s Eagles have been more on the front foot than Roy Hodgson’s and the midfield seems to be more involved in the attack. We’d be surprised if Palace miss out again against Luton this season. They should win this one.
Crystal Palace: Johnstone; Ward, Andersen, Richards; Munoz, Wharton, Lerma, Mitchell; Ayew, Mateta, Eze
Luton Town: Kaminski; Burke, Mengi, Bell; Kabore, Clark, Barkley, Doughty; Townsend, Morris, Chong
Wolves and Fulham’s successes this season have largely flown under the radar, but they’ve quietly been two of the most impressive teams in the Premier League this season. Fulham beat Brighton 3-0 last week, while Wolves lost 0-3 to Newcastle.
Fulham are 12th in the table, just one point behind Chelsea, and have one of the best home records in the league. Wolves are in 10th and within reach of the European spots. Key to both of these teams’ successes is having dynamic forwards along with a defensively solid midfield and back line.
If there’s any match that will end in a draw in EPL Matchweek 28, it would be this one. With that being said, over the course of the season, Fulham have been dreadful away from home, so picking Wolves would not be a bad shout here either.
| Bookmaker | Tip | Odds |
 | Draw No Bet - WOLVES | $1.82 |
 | UNDER .25 Goals | $1.85 |
 | Double Chance 1 - Wolves WIN or DRAW | $1.47 |
Wolves: Sa; Kilman, Dawson, Toti; Semedo, Lemina, Doyle, Ait-Nouri; Sarabia, Neto, Bellegarde
Fulham: Leno; Castagne, Tosin, Bassey, Robinson; Reed, Palhinha; Wilson, Pereora, Iwobi; Muniz
Arsenal are third in the Premier League and have won three of their last four Premier League matches by five goals or more, including their 6-0 battering of Sheffield United last week.
Brentford are in 15th and have won just one of their last five matches. It’s no wonder then why the soccer betting sites have made the Gunners such big favourites here. We think this could be trickier than the betting sites are making it out to be though.
Thomas Frank’s Brentford side have been very unlucky since getting Ivan Toney back from injury. They should be higher in the table than they are now. We know the Bees are giant killers who play defensively solid soccer and that these sides can cause Arsenal problems. Just look at the last time these two teams played. Arsenal won the match by a 1-0 scoreline. The Porto loss in the Champions League is another example.
The Bees probably won’t win on Sunday, but we like their chances of keeping things close.
Arsenal: Raya; White, Saliba, Gabriel, Kiwior; Odegaard, Jorginho, Rice; Saka, Havertz, Trossard
Brentford: Flekken; Jorgensen, Ajer, Collins; Roerslev, Onyeka, Norgaard, Janelt, Reguilon; Toney, Wissa
Liverpool vs. Man City is the big game of EPL Matchweek 28, but this one might be the second biggest. An Aston Villa win here would make them favourites to finish in the top four and to secure Champions League soccer next season. If Tottenham win, they’ll be just two points out of the fourth spot.
Both teams are coming into this huge match on strong runs of form. Tottenham have won three out of their last five and just dispatched Crystal Palace 3-1. Villa have won three straight and most recently took down Luton Town 3-2 thanks to an 89th-minute goal from Lucas Digne.
Villa’s dominance at home to start the season has tailed off a bit and Tottenham’s inconsistency has levelled out a bit too as well. Spurs have not been shut out since mid-December. Villa have similarly scored in every match since January 15. This one has a high scoring draw written all over it.
| Bookmaker | Tip | Odds |
| Double Chance 1 - Aston Villa WIN or DRAW | $1.50 |
| OVER 3.5 Goals | $1.95 |
| Double Chance 1 - Aston Villa WIN or DRAW | $1.51 |
Aston Villa: Martinez; Cash, Konsa, Lenglet, Moreno; Bailey, McGinn, Luiz, Diaby; Tielemans; Watkins
Tottenham: Vicario; Emerson, Romero, Van de Ven, Udogie; Bissoma, Bentancur; Kulusevski, Maddison, Werner; Son
Brighton’s chances of qualifying for European football for the second straight season are getting smaller and smaller every week. The Seagulls have won just one of their last four matches and were handily beaten 0-3 by Fulham in Matchweek 27.
Forest are on a worse run of form than Brighton, having won just one of their last five matches, but they have looked better than record shows. The Reds nearly got a 0-0 draw against Liverpool last week and recently beat West Ham 2-0.
With all of Brighton’s injuries, this could be a match Nottingham Forest gets a result in. The Seagulls are also playing against Roma in the Europa League on Thursday. Brighton struggled earlier in the season dealing with squad rotation during the Europa League group stage, so we expect more of the same here.
We like Nottingham Forest’s chances of getting at least a draw here.
| Bookmaker | Tip | Odds |
| Double Chance 2 - Nottm Forest WIN or DRAW | $2.12 |
| Both Teams To Score - YES | $1.60 |
| Double Chance 2 - Nottm Forest WIN or DRAW | $2.15 |
Brighton: Verbruggen; Veltman, Dunk, Van Hecke, Estupinan; Baleba, Gross; Lamptey,Enciso, Adingra; Ferguson
Nottm Forest: Sels; Williams, Omobamidele, Murillo, Toffolo; Dominguez, Yates; Origi, Gibbs-White, Hudson-Odoi; Elanga
Burley’s 0-2 loss to Bournemouth last week all but guaranteed that the Clarets will be going back down to the Championship this season. West Ham, on the other hand, took care of Everton at Goodison Park and took one step closer to securing European soccer for themselves next season.
When these two teams played on November 26, West Ham came away with a 2-1 win at Turf Moor. We have no reason to think the Hammers won’t get another win. If anything, we think they might run up the score on the Clarets. West Ham have scored seven goals in their last two matches.
The only thing that might hold the Hammers back is their Europa League tie. David Moyes and his West Ham side will face off against Freiburg just three days before they take on Burnley.
West Ham: Areola; Coufal, Mavropanos, Zouma, Emerson; Soucek, Alvarez; Kudus, Ward-Prowse, Paqueta; Bowen
Burnley: Trafford; Assignon, O’Shea, Esteve, Taylor; Vitinho, Berge, Cullen, Odobert; Fofana, Rodriguez
Liverpool vs. Manchester City this week could be a potential title-decider. A Liverpool win would give the Reds breathing room at the top of the table over the title favourites Man City. If City win, they’d leapfrog Liverpool and likely finish the season on top. A draw opens up the title race to Arsenal, who are just two points behind Liverpool at time of writing.
The betting sites have Man City as favourites here. It’s hard not to agree with them. Liverpool have so many injuries. Trent Alexander-Arnold, Diogo Jota, Alisson, Ryan Gravenberch, Curtis Jones, and Joel Matip will all miss the Liverpool vs. Manchester City match. Mohamed Salah’s lingering muscle injury could also see him miss this week’s big game.
“Klopp’s kids” may be able to handle themselves against sides like Chelsea and Nottingham Forest, but expecting them to get the job done against Man City is a whole other thing. City should come away from this match as winners and Premier League title favourites
| Bookmaker | Tip | Odds |
| Draw No Bet - MAN CITY | $1.68 |
| UNDER 3.5 Goals | $1.60 |
| Anytime Goalscorer - Erling Haaland | $1.85 |
Liverpool: Kelleher; Bradley, Konate, Van Dijk, Robertson; Mac Allister, Gomez, Clark; Elliott, Gakpo, Diaz
Man City: Ederson; Walker, Dias, Ake; Rodri, Stones; Foden, Silva, De Bruyne, Doku; Haaland
Chelsea’s season to forget rumbled on last week with a 2-2 draw against Brentford. The Blues were again disorganised at the back, giving away their 1-0 lead in the 50th minute against Brentford. A late goal from Axel Disasi salvaged a draw for Chelsea, but it was not a convincing result.
One of the only teams with a more inconsistent back line than Chelsea is Newcastle. The Magpies have given up multiple goals in four of their last five Premier League matches, including a 4-4 draw at home against Luton Town.
The betting sites have Chelsea as huge favourites here, but we’re not so certain it will be a win for the Blues. We simply can’t trust them. Instead, we think betting on goals is the best bet here.
Chelsea: Petrovic; Gusto, Disasi, Chalobah, Colwill, Chilwell; Fernandez, Caicedo, Gallagher; Palmer, Jackson
Newcastle: Dubravka; Livramento, Schar, Botman, Burn; Longstaff, Guimaraes, Willock; Almiron, Isak, Gordon
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