With 36 points, Everton are safe from relegation this season. The Toffees have won three matches on the bounce after their disastrous 6-0 defeat to Chelsea. The betting sites don’t think they can make it four. Everton are slight underdogs, according to the betting odds. We agree with those odds.
Everton are a better team than Luton Town. The underlying metrics back this up too with them having a far better xG differential over the season. However, now that Everton are safe, we think it’s very likely they will take things easy in this match. Luton are not a side you want to take things easy against.
It’s been a poor season for the Hatters, but they have overperformed expectations all season long, especially at home. Luton have one of the biggest points per match differences between home and away in the league. We think Kenilworth Road will make the difference on Saturday and Luton will get the win.
Luton: Kaminski; Burke, Mengi, Osho; Hashioka, Lokonga, Barkley, Doughty; Clark, Morris, Chong
Everton: Pickford; Godfrey, Tarkowski, Branthwaite, Young; Harrison, Gueye, Garner, McNeil; Doucoure, Calvert-Lewin
Bournemouth hammered their South Coast rivals Brighton 3-0 last week. Meanwhile, Arsenal almost blew a 3-0 lead to their rivals, Tottenham, in the North London Derby before eventually coming away with a 3-2 win. The Gunners should have an easier time of things this week.
Arsenal are on an eight-match unbeaten streak against the Cherries. They battered Bournemouth 4-0 in the reverse fixture back in September. The Cherries have grown leaps and bounds since then, but so have Arsenal. The Gunners have the best attack and defence in the league. They’ve kept a clean sheet in six of their last seven matches. Bournemouth have never kept a clean sheet against Arsenal, and haven’t really been tested recently.
We’re expecting Arsenal to win by at least two goals here.
| Bookmaker | Tip | Odds |
 | OVER 3.5 Goal | $1.88 |
 | Arsenal To Score OVER 2.5 Goals | $1.83 |
 | Both Teams To Score - YES | $1.82 |
Arsenal: Raya; White, Saliba, Gabriel, Zinchenko; Odegaard, Jorginho, Rice; Saka, Havertz, Trossard
Bournemouth: Travers; Smith, Senesi, Kelly, Ouattara; Semenyo, Christie, Cook, Kluivert; Unal, Solanke
Despite their 1-0 loss to Everton last week, Brentford secured their safety thanks to results elsewhere. Their London rivals, Fulham, have seemingly been safe for months, but are on a bit of a slide recently. The Cottagers have won just one of their last five matches, dropping points to Sheffield United and Nottingham Forest during that stretch.
This match is set to be your typical run-of-the-mill, late-season match between two teams who are ‘on the beach’ already. Brentford will have the advantage though playing at home. Fulham have won just three away matches this season. To Brentford once this season too. The Bees won the reverse fixture 3-0 in August.
Our pick for this one is a draw. If one team is going to win, though, it will be Brentford.
| Bookmaker | Tip | Odds |
| Both Teams To Score - YES | $1.53 |
| Both Teams To Score - YES | $1.55 |
| Draw No Bet - Brentford | $1.52 |
Brentford: Flekken; Ajer, Collins, Pinnock, Reguilon; Jensen, Norgaard, Janelt; Mbeumo, Toney, Wissa
Fulham: Leno; Castagne, Diop, Bassey, Robinson; Lukic, Palhinha; De Cordova-Reid, Pereira, Iwobi; Muniz
Burnley have quietly put together a strong run of form to end the season. The Clarets have lost just one match in their last eight and are on a three-match unbeaten streak. They have the toughest schedule of any relegation-threatened club in the league right now, starting with playing Newcastle this week.
Eddie Howe’s men demolished Sheffield United 5-1 last weekend. They’ll be looking for something similar this week as they try to claim a Europa League spot. The Magpies beat Burnley 2-0 back in September. For our money, we think they’ll do it again on Sunday.
Burnley have gone 18 matches without keeping a clean sheet. Newcastle’s attacking core is still pretty banged up right now, but, as they showed against Sheff Utd, they are still dangerous. The only reason to doubt the Magpies is that they are playing on the road. Unfortunately for Burnley, they actually perform better away from home than at Turf Moor, so we don’t see the home-field advantage playing a role here.
Burnley: Muric; Assignon, O’Shea, Esteve, Vitinho; Odobert, Berge, Cullen, Larsen; Foster, Fofana
Newcastle: Dubravka; Livramento, Schar, Burn, Hall; Longstaff, Guimaraes, Anderson; Gordon, Isak, Barnes
Sheffield United are the first team confirmed to be going down to the Championship this season. Nottingham Forest will be doing all they can to avoid joining them.
Last week, Forest lost 2-0 to City. It was an expected result, but not one the Reds needed right now. They are in 17th place and just one point above the relegation zone. They need a win this week. Full stop.
Forest narrowly beat the Blades last time these two played thanks to an 89th-minute winner from Chris Wood. We don’t think those kinds of heroics will be necessary this time though.
Sheffield United has nothing to play for and have given up four goals in their last three games. If Forest don’t get a win here, maybe they deserve to go down.
Sheff Utd: Foderingham; Holgate, Ahmedhodzic, Trusty; Bogle, Hamer, Arblaster, Brooks, Osborn; Archer, Brereton-Diaz
Nottm Forest: Sels; Williams, Boly, Murillo, Aina; Danilo, Sangare; Elanga, Gibbs-White, Hudson-Odoi; Wood
Manchester City took care of business last week in a 2-0 victory versus Nottingham Forest. Their destiny as Premier League champions remains completely up to them. If they keep winning, it won’t matter what Arsenal do. So, will the Cityzens drop points this week? As boring as it is to say, no, we don’t think they will.
Gary O’Neil, who will be suspended for this match after having a go at the referees a few weeks ago, deserves a lot of credit for what he’s done with Wolves. However, playing Man City on the road is a tough task for anyone, especially since City are fully rested, healthy, and have everything to play for.
This should be a simple 2-0 or 3-0 victory for Pep Guardiola and Man City
Man City: Ortega; Walker, Stones, Dias, Gvardiol; Rodri; Foden, De Bruyne, Silva, Grealish; Haaland
Wolves: Sa; Semedo, Kilman, Toti; Doherty, Gomes, Lemina, Ait-Nouri; Sarabia, Cunha, Hwang
Brighton’s slide down the table continued last week with an embarrassing 3-0 loss to their South Coast rivals Bournemouth. The Seagulls have won just six of their last 28 matches and are racking up injuries by the day.
Aston Villa, meanwhile, threw away three points last week in a 2-2 draw with Chelsea at home. The Villains are still in fourth place and the bookies’ favourites to qualify for the Champions League this season. Surprisingly though, Aston Villa are not big favourites over Brighton.
Most sites have the Villains as just slight favourites here. We think this is a huge mistake. Aston Villa destroyed Brighton 6-1 earlier in the season and there isn’t a less in-form team in the league than the Seagulls right now.
Yes, Villa will be without Emiliano Martinez and Youri Tielemans, but this is a match they should be winning. Villa to win or a Draw No Bet wager are your best bets in this one.
Brighton: Verbruggen; Veltman, Dunk, Webster, Barco; Gross, Baleba, Buonanotte, Lallana, Adingra, Pedro
Aston Villa: Olsen; Cash, Konsa, Torres, Digne; Bailey, Luiz, Rogers, McGinn; Diaby, Watkins
Chelsea’s chances of finishing in the top half are still alive after their 2-2 draw with Aston Villa last week. West Ham are still chasing a Europa League spot. Their draw with Liverpool last week will help things, but it might be too late for the Hammers.
When these two last faced off, West ham outclassed Chelsea. The same could happen this week, or not. In truth, the Blues are completely unpredictable. The Hammers have been too recently. Moyes’ side have lost two of their last three to worse sides, but somehow drew with Liverpool.
With all that being said, a draw is our pick for this one. We also expect both to score and for Chelsea to score first.
Chelsea: Petrovic; Chalobah, Silva, Badiashile, Cucurella; Caicedo, Gallagher, Madueke, Palmer, Mudryk; Jackson
West Ham: Areola; Coufal, Zouma, Ogbonna, Emerson; Soucek, Alvarez; Kudus, Ward-Prowse, Paqueta; Bowen
Tottenham fell 3-2 to their North London rivals Arsenal last week in a hotly-contested match that the Lilywhites probably think they should have won. It was Spurs’ second loss on the bounce. Another loss would almost guarantee that they miss out on the Champions League next season.
Liverpool’s title hopes came crashing down to Earth last week after their 2-2 draw to West Ham. Once favourites, the Reds are now set on to finish third behind Man City and Arsenal. Drama between Jurgen Klopp and Mo Salah also aren’t helping things. With all this going on, Liverpool are vulnerable. Ange Postecogolu’s Spurs should like their chances here.
Spurs won the first fixture between these two this season. Liverpool went down to nine men in that match. Even if Liverpool keep all 11 this time, we think they might not be in for the fight. We’re backing Spurs to get at least a draw here.
| Bookmaker | Tip | Odds |
| Double Chance 2 - Spurs WIN Or DRAW | $2.70 |
| OVER 3.5 Goals | $1.65 |
| Double Chance 2 - Spurs WIN Or DRAW | $2.72 |
Liverpool: Alisson; Alexander-Arnold, Quansah, Van Dijk, Robertson; Mac Allister, Endo, Gravenberch; Salah, Nunez, Diaz
Tottenham: Vicario; Porro, Romero, Van de Ven, Davies; Sarr, Bissouma; Kulusevski, Maddison, Werner; Son
Crystal Palace are flying under new manager Oliver Glasner to close out the season. The Eagles have just one loss in their last five, a 4-2 defeat to Man City. They have beaten the likes of West Ham, Newcastle, and Liverpool during that stretch.
Manchester United, meanwhile, look ready for the 2024/25 season. The Red Devils limped into the FA Cup final against Coventry City two weeks ago. They went down 2-0 to Sheffield United in the match after that before eventually coming away with a win. They followed all that up with a disappointing 1-1 draw against Burnley at Old Trafford.
To put it lightly, Manchester United are not good right now. A team like Palace in the form they are now playing at home should be able to beat this Red Devils side.
Crystal Palace: Henderson; Clyne, Andersen, Richards; Munoz, Wharton, Hughes, Mitchell; Olise, Mateta, Eze
Man Utd: Onana; Wan-Bissaka, Casemiro, Maguire, Dalot; Mainoo, Mount; Garnacho, Fernandes, Diallo; Hojlund
New Manchester United boss Rúben Amorim will manage his first game this weekend against Ipswich Town. Here is what to expect from the new man.
See our free EPL Matchweek 12 multibet with picks from Aston Villa vs. Palace, Bournemouth vs. Brighton, and Manchester City vs. Tottenham.
We have EPL betting tips and predictions for every Matchweek 12 fixture, including Arsenal vs. Nottingham Forest, Man City vs. Tottenham.
As many as four managers will be fighting for their jobs in the Premier League this week, including Wolves’ Gary O’Neil and Everton’s Sean Dyche.
