EPL to miss extra Champions League spot after Arsenal and Man City losses

It’s now almost impossible for England to catch Germany in the UEFA coefficient table. Both nations trail Italy. 

Arsenal and Manchester City’s losses in the Champions League to Bayern Munich and Real Madrid was devastating to the fans of those respective clubs, but it may also be terrible news for Aston Villa and Tottenham fans. These losses widened the gap between England and Germany in the UEFA coefficient race for an extra place in next season’s Champions League.  
 
Now, it would take a miracle for England to catch up to Germany. Italian clubs have already secured top spot and an extra place for Serie A clubs in the 2024/25 Champions League. 

Premier League vs. Bundesliga 

With Manchester City and Arsenal out of the Champions League, there are three teams left in European competitions. Germany have the same amount of teams remaining, but with Bayern and Dortmund guaranteed two more games and Bayer Leverkusen leading West Ham, they have a strong upper hand on the UEFA coefficient race.  
 
Currently, Germany leads England by 0.642 points. England can add +1.750 points if West Ham and Liverpool win their next matches but lose their ties, as the betting sites expect, and if Aston Villa win all their remaining Europa Conference League matches.  
 
If that were the case, German clubs would need only three more wins (or two wins and two draws) to secure second place and an extra Champions League place for next season. 
 
Simply put, it’s incredibly unlikely that 5th place in the Premier League will be good enough to secure Champions League soccer next season. This makes the race for the top four even more important for Aston Villa and Tottenham who’re battling it out every week for that final Champions League spot. 

UEFA coefficient race explained 

The 2024/25 Champions League will look radically different from the 2023/24 edition. For one, there will be no groups. Instead, there will be one giant, 36-club table with each team playing eight matches against other ranked teams on the table. This ‘Swiss Model’ is the most notable change. Another is the role of UEFA coefficient points.  
 
Currently UEFA coefficient points, which clubs earn with wins and draws in UEFA competitions like the Champions League, are used to rank leagues and allocate Champions League places. The more points you earned over the past five years, the more Champions League spots you get.  
 
Starting from this season onwards, how many coefficient points your country earns in a single season could also lead to an extra Champions League place. The top two performing nations every year will get one so-called ‘European Performance Spots.’  
 
For example, if English teams finished among the top two in the coefficient table, the fifth-placed Premier League team would earn automatic qualification into next year’s Champions League. If they finish outside the top two, only the top four Premier League teams would qualify. 

Italy has already secured the top spot on the UEFA coefficient points table. Right now, England looks like a long shot, but it’s still within reach for the Premier League.