AFL 2024 Finals Week One – Betting Tips, Odds & Predictions

After one of the tightest battles for spots in the top eight in a long, long time, the home and away season and the first four matches of the finals are locked in. It kicks off with the Power hosting the Cats at Adelaide Oval for a spot in the Prelims on Thursday night, before the Dogs and Hawks go head to head in an enthralling Friday night clash at the MCG. Saturday will kick off with the second Qualifying Final which also happens to be a Battle of the Bridge between the Swans and the Giants, before the week concludes on Saturday night when the Lions host the Blues in a repeat of last year’s Prelim – only this time, one of them will be bundled out in week one. Below, we take a look in detail at all four games in the first week of the finals.

At various points this year, both of these teams were struggling, pressure was mounting, and a spot in the finals was far from assured. But they each hit form over the past few weeks of the year to lock up top four spots, and have now given themselves the double chance and the possibility of bypassing the semis and moving to within a win of a Grand Final by the end of the weekend.  
 
The Power’s form entering the game is as good as that of any team in the league. They have won six games on the trot and eight of their last nine, and the manner of many of those wins has been particularly impressive. In their latest outing they knocked off a Dockers team fighting for a spot in the finals, a couple of weeks earlier they somehow managed to beat the top of the table Swans by 112 points, the week prior to that they beat the Blues in Melbourne, and a couple of weeks before that they beat the Bulldogs easily – the only team to do that for more than two months. Their supremely talented midfield – led by the continually improving Jason Horne-Francis, Zak Butters and Connor Rozee – is proving hard to stop, their talented but enigmatic forward line is firing, and their oft-maligned backline has conceded less than ten goals for five consecutive weeks. And with the Power having lost only three games at home all year, the Cats are going to have their work cut out in this one.  
 
Fortunately for Geelong, they too come into the finals on the back of some very good form. As they have done for over a decade, they have managed to gradually turn over their list to the point where their young brigade is as responsible for their success this year as the veterans, and wins in eight of their last ten games saw them finish the season with 15 wins – enough for 3rd spot on the ladder. Their wins, it’s safe to say, have not been quite as commanding as many of those the Power have managed, but their proverbial tails are high in the air and they will head to Adelaide Oval very much believing they can win their way straight into a Preliminary Final.  
 
As is so often the case, the midfield battle will have a massive impact on the result of this game, and the Power unequivocally have a significant advantage there. The Cats have found a way to be competitive in the middle and have uncovered a couple of good players to take them through the next generation, namely Max Holmes, while Patrick Dangerfield is still capable of ripping a game away from the opposition on his day. The top-end quality as well as the depth, however, is not nearly as good as that of the Power in the engine room, and in what will likely be a heavily contested game that could prove the difference. This should be a good game and it’s not likely to be a heavy win in either direction, but on their home turf, Port Adelaide should be too strong.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Willie Rioli to kick 2+ goals	$1.89
	Power to win	$1.49
	Power -12.5	$1.88

Predicted Squads

Port Adelaide Power: B: La. Jones, B. Zerk-Thatcher, M. Bergman HB: K. Farrell, A. Aliir, L. Evans C: J. Burgoyne, O. Wines, W. Drew HF: D. Byrne-Jones, E. Ratugolea, W. Rioli F: M. Georgiades, T. Marshall, C. Rozee - C FOLL: J. Sweet, J. Horne-Francis, Z. Butters I/C: R. Burton, J. Mead, F. Evans, T. Boak, J. McEntee EMG: O. Lord, J. Sinn, C. Dixon

Geelong Cats: B: L. Humphries, J. Henry, J. Kolodjashnij HB: M. Holmes, M. Blicavs, Z. Guthrie C: M. Duncan, T. Atkins, O. Dempsey HF: T. Stengle, S. Neale, S. Mannagh F: B. Close, J. Cameron, O. Henry FOLL: R. Stanley, P. Dangerfield - C, T. Stewart I/C: S. De Koning, G. Rohan, G. Miers, J. Bews, T. Bruhn EMG: J. Bowes, O. Mullin, M. Knevitt

It’s not all that often that an Elimination Final is the most anticipated game of the first week of the finals, but that may well be the case this year. The Bulldogs and the Hawks are two of the most exciting teams in the league, both of them boasting very, very high ceilings and having the capability of doing some serious damage in September from lower in the top eight. One of them, however, will be turning their attention to footy trip by the end of Friday night.  
 
The Doggies have been brilliant for virtually the entirety of the second half of the season, at one point going close to Premiership favouritism, but they ended up falling just a game short of earning themselves the double chance despite having a percentage better than everyone in the league with the exception of the Swans. The inconsistency which has for so long plagued them very rarely reared its head in the latter stages of the season, the sole exception being a bad game against the Power, while a loss to the Crows can in no small part be attributed to poor goalkicking. Their supremely talented midfield led by Marcus Bontempelli and a rejuvenated Adam Treloar is electric, their forward line is functioning beautifully with Jamarra Ugle-Hagan and Sam Darcy hitting their straps, while sending Rory Lobb down back has been a masterstroke for them at both ends of the field. They can beat anyone in the league when they are on, and having been on for over two months that makes them a serious danger in September.  
 
But so too are the team that they play in this game. Having finished bottom three last season and started the season 1-6, six or seven wins looked like it would be a good result for the Hawks a few months ago. But since then, they have turned their form around like even the most optimistic of Hawks’ fans could have predicted. Since that time they have lost just three more games, and with two of them coming by two points or less they could easily have won more. They might not have the talent on paper of some of the other teams in the top eight and their list looks like it should still be a couple of years away from playing anything like this, but try telling that to the Hawks. This young side could hardly be playing with more confidence, and with each passing week they are looking more and more like not just a fun, plucky young team, but a side with legitimate Premiership potential. Much like the Dogs, when they are up and running they are almost impossible to stop, and it will be fascinating to see if they can continue their electric home and away form in the finals.  
 
If both of these two teams bring their best, this will be one of the games of the year, and it would be no surprise to see the winner of it continue deep into the finals series. The Bulldogs have an edge in experience and should be better equipped to handle the big occasion, but the Hawks don’t exactly seem like a team likely to shy away from the bright lights. Hopefully, we see the free-flowing games of both of these teams in full swing, and if we do we could be in for a tight, high-scoring thriller. No result would be a surprise in this one, but most of the best players on the field will be wearing blue, red and white, and that may prove the difference in the end.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Bulldogs to win	$1.74
	Bulldogs -5.5	$1.91
	Over 166. 5 total match points	$1.88

Predicted Squads

Western Bulldogs: B: T. Duryea, L. Jones, J. Freijah HB: L. Bramble, R. Lobb, B. Dale C: E. Richards, A. Treloar, B. Williams HF: J. Ugle-Hagan, A. Naughton, L. McNeil F: C. Weightman, S. Darcy,R. West FOLL: T. English, M. Bontempelli - C, T. Liberatore I/C: C. Daniel, H. Gallagher, A. Jones, J. O’Donnell, J. Macrae EMG: R. Garcia, C. Poulter, B. Khamis

Hawthorn Hawks: B: J. Weddle, S. Frost, J. Impey HB: M. D’Ambrosio, J. Sicily - C, J. Scrimshaw C: C. Nash, C. Macdonald, K. Amon HF: L. Breust, C. Dear, J. Ginnivan F: C. Mackenzie, M. Chol, N. Watson FOLL: L. Meek, D. Moore, J. Newcombe I/C: H. Morrison, B. Hardwick, C. Jiath, J. Worpel, J. Gunston EMG: J. Serong, J. Ward, N. Reeves

Aside from a Grand Final between these two teams – which may very well happen in a few weeks’ time – this matchup is as close to a perfect scenario for the AFL as possible. Both Sydney-based teams are right in the Premiership hunt, and on Saturday afternoon will go toe to toe for a spot in the Preliminary Final. The Swans, of course, have long been destined to take on whoever finished 4th, and even a 1-5 run in the back half of the season wasn’t enough to knock them out of top spot, so commanding was the lead they had built atop the AFL ladder through the first three or four months of the season.  
 
At 13-1 they were clearly the team to beat and no other team was really putting up their hand to do it, but a couple of tight losses took the wind out of their sail, ultimately leading to a comfortable loss to the Bulldogs and then an incredible 112-point defeat at the hands of the Power in which, at one point, they were down 71-0. Since then they haven’t quite recovered the dominant form of the first half of the season, but they have returned to the winners’ list with three victories in the last three rounds and appear to slowly be regaining the swagger which so defined them earlier in the year. They still have Isaac Heeney, Errol Gulden and Chad Warner leading the way in the middle, Callum Mills, James Rowbottom and Luke Parker very capable aides, as well as a strong backline – and while their lack of a standout key forward has been touted as an issue, they get the ball in there with enough regularity and quality to nullify any concerns that may have posed.  
 
The Giants, meanwhile, for a time appeared destined to not just miss out on the top four, but on finals all together. They were the last team to be defeated at the start of the year, winning their first seven, but after that they fell in a heap and won just three of their next ten for no particular reason. Fortunately, this supremely talented team remembered that they were just that just in the nick of time, and seven wins on the trot in the lead-up to Round 24 saw them climb their way back into the top four. They just hung onto their spot there and would have missed had the Lions not lost to the Magpies by a point in the penultimate round of the season, but make it they did and they are now right in the mix for what would be their inaugural Premiership.  
 
The Giants do have talent all over the field, with Sam Taylor, Jack Buckley and Lachie Whitfield holding the fort and, in the latter’s case, shredding opposition defences from the backline, their midfield headlined by names like Tom Green, and the best forward in the game in Jesse Hogan alongside Toby Greene. Arguably their top handful of players is spread across the field better than those of the Swans – in fact almost certainly it is – but the Swans’ engine room is so, so good, and it’s from there that they are able to generate so much of their offensive firepower. The Giants have the ability to win this game, particularly with the Swans not at their absolute best of late even now that they are back winning games, but Sydney have played the best footy of any team this year. It’s far from a fait accompli, but they deserve to be favourites in this game, and can sneak over the line in a thriller.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Swans to win	$1.65
	Swans 1-24	$3.40
	Swans 1-39	$2.25

Predicted Squads

Sydney Swans: B: D. Rampe, T. McCartin, N. Blakey HB: L. Melican, H. Cunningham, O. Florent C: C. Mills - C, Ch. Warner, E. Gulden HF: L. Parker, C. Cleary, J. Jordon F: L. McDonald, J. Amartey, W. Hayward FOLL: B. Grundy, I. Heeney, J. Rowbottom I/C: M. Roberts, B. Campbell, T. Adams, H. McLean, J. Lloyd EMG: P. Ladhams, Co. Warner, R. Fox

Greater Western Sydney Giants: B: H. Himmelberg, S. Taylor, C. Idun HB: L. Whitfield, J. Buckley, H. Perryman C: C. Ward, T. Green, S. Coniglio HF: C. Brown, A. Cadman, J. Peatling F: B. Daniels, J. Hogan, T. Greene - C FOLL: K. Briggs, J. Kelly, X. O’Halloran I/C: F. Callaghan, L. Keeffe, T. Bedford, J. Riccardi, L. Ash EMG: H. Thomas, T. McMullin, N. Haynes

• Three of the Bulldogs’ last four games have gone over the total match points line set for their game against the Hawks, while five of the last six Hawthorn games have done the same.  
• Willie Rioli has kicked two or more goals in three of his last four games, and booted 4. 3 last time the Power played the Cats.  
• The Swans deserve to be favourites for their game, but the Giants haven’t lost once all year by more than 39 points

Multi of the Week

Last year, the Lions and the Blues went head to head in a Preliminary Final which the Blues led comfortably early, only to be run down by the home team in the second half. The two teams will again face off in this year’s finals series, but rather than a spot in the Grand Final being on the line, the winner of this will simply avoid a first week exit which, for both of them, would be a major disappointment.  
 
The Lions will be hugely frustrated to have missed out on a top four spot. After a slow start to the year they probably looked like the best team in the league for a couple of months and appeared destined to work their way into the top four, but the aforementioned one-point loss to the Magpies in Round 23 has come back to haunt them – it’s safe to say they will be pretty sick of the Pies at this point. The end result was a 5th place finish, but despite missing out on the top four, this team is still more than capable of doing plenty of damage in September. They might be missing a handful of their best 22 to ACL injuries, but that has been the case for a long time and they clearly still have enough cattle on the park to go all the way. Keep an eye out for Cam Rayner both in this game and beyond, should they win, with the damaging form of the former number one draft pick potentially set to have a huge impact on his team’s fortunes 
 
The Blues, meanwhile, will in one way be thanking their lucky stars that they are even in the finals; a goal to Jack Higgins in the dying seconds of their final round clash against the Saints could have cost them a spot in the eight, but fortunately the Dockers couldn’t do what they needed to do and the Blues hung onto 8th as a result. But still – just a few weeks ago the Blues were sitting in 2nd and looked to have established themselves as the biggest contender in the league to the Swans. Unfortunately, their form fell off a cliff just as they did that, and a disastrous injury list added plenty of salt to the wound. Their fortunes in this game will depend largely on how many of the recently injured players they get back in this game; potentially, a bulk of them will still be missing and in that case, it’s hard to see them being competitive. But the returns of Charlie Curnow, Harry McKay and a few others could be instrumental, and allow them to play at something close to the form they have displayed earlier in the season.  
 
The problem for Carlton, however, is that their worst case scenario is missing a huge number of players, and their best case is having a large chunk of their players returning from injury for a cut-throat final. Either way, it’s not ideal. Any team with Patrick Cripps leading the charge, Jacob Weitering marshalling the backline and Curnow and McKay up forward has the capacity to be dangerous, but the Lions have been the better side by some margin over the last few weeks. If absolutely everything goes the way of the Blues this one could be close, but the Lions should be winning this, and it might be the most one-sided game of the weekend.  

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Lions to win	$1.28
	Lions -21.5	$1.91
	Lions 25+	$2.00

Predicted Squads

Brisbane Lions: B: D. Zorko, H. Andrews - C, C. McKenna HB: D. Wilmot, R. Lester, B. Starcevich C: J. Fletcher, W. Ashcroft, H. McCluggage HF: C. Rayner, J. Daniher, J. Berry F: C. Cameron, E. Hipwood, C. Ah Chee FOLL: O. McInerney, J. Dunkley, L. Neale I/C: K. Lohmann, L. Morris, D. Joyce, Z. Bailey, N. Answerth EMG: D. Robertson, J. Prior, H. Smith

Carlton Blues: B: Le. Young, J. Weitering, L. Cowan HB: A. Saad, M. McGovern, N. Newman C: O. Hollands, P. Cripps - C, B. Acres HF: C. Durdin, H. McKay, E. Hollands F: M. Kennedy, C. Curnow, J. Motlop FOLL: M. Pittonet, S. Walsh, G. Hewett I/C: Z. Williams, A. Cincotta, A. Cerra, O. Fantasia, T. De Koning EMG: J. Binns, C. Lord, A. Moir

Find the above content helpful? Good news – there is plenty more where that came from at BettingTop10. We have got a huge array of content related to both different sports, and betting sites themselves. Similar to the above content, we dish out weekly NRL prediction pieces covering every game, while we’re also going to be taking a deep dive weekly into the AFLW, and once NBA season returns we will take a look at that a few times a week as well. 
 
And if you’re after just general bookmaker info, like how to find the best betting sites in Australia, then look no further. We have put together a whole bunch of really detailed bookmaker reviews which go into detail about literally everything you can imagine, from which sites have the best odds and range of markets, to where you can find the best betting apps and customer support platform. So whatever it is that you’re looking for to do with sports betting in Australia, we have got you covered. 

More AFL Tips

• Top 8 Betting Odds and Predictions
• Premiership Winner Betting Preview
• Coleman Medal  Odds and Predictions
• Wooden Spoon Betting Least Wins
• Brownlow Medal Odds and Predictions
• AFL Grand Final Betting Sites