AFLW 2024 Finals Week One – Betting Tips, Odds & Predictions

It’s finals time in the AFLW. Round 10 went largely as expected, resulting in very little change to the top eight or the top four in the final week of the home and away season. The Tigers and Power swapped places and that was it as far as positional changes in the eight, with that change meaning that those two will face off in an Elimination Final on Port Adelaide’s home turf. Elsewhere, the Demons gave themselves a fighting chance of making what, a month or so ago, seemed like an impossible finals berth by beating the Magpies by 47 points, but unfortunately for them the Bombers saluted over the Blues as expected to snatch that coveted 8th spot. But for all the fighting in the bottom half of the top eight, the top four are the clear best four teams in the business, and it’s hard to imagine the Premier coming from outside of that group. The finals series kicks off with a clash between two of the favourites when the Kangaroos take on the Crows, before the Dockers host the Bombers, the Hawks host the Lions and finally the Power host the Tigers, and below, we preview all four games set for this weekend.

The Kangaroos finishing on top of the AFLW ladder has felt like a foregone conclusion for a few months now, and though the Hawks did what they could to give them a run for their money, that’s exactly how it played out. The Premiership favourites finished just half a game clear in first, but a percentage of 315.4% was indicative of their dominance. They scored 45 more points than any other team in the league and conceded 77 less than anyone else over their 11 games, and were very rarely challenged across the course of the home and away season. Having fallen just short last season, they could hardly be better placed to go one better in 2024, and their odds on favouritism to win it all heading into the finals series is well and truly justified.

One of the few sides which has challenged them this year, however, is the Crows. These two met just a fortnight ago which the Kangaroos ultimately won by just eight points, and given Adelaide kicked 4.9 to North Melbourne’s 6.5, the result could easily have gone the other way. Of course, that game was played in Adelaide while this one will take place at IKON Park, but still – the Crows are right up there in the small list of teams capable of taking it to the Kangaroos. Though they have been a tier below the Kangaroos, Hawks and Lions for most of the year, fighting to sneak into the top four, the Crows deserve plenty of credibility as a Premiership contender. They might have lost three games in the home and away season, but that eight-point defeat to the Roos was the biggest of them, and the other two came by just a couple of points each. They could very easily have ended the season close to undefeated, and given that no one has been able to beat them by more than a few points all year, it’s easy to see them taking it right up to the Premiership favourites in this one. But despite that, the Kangaroos have been a cut above all season, and it’s impossible to go past them in this one. It should be a hard fought and tight contest which could very easily be a preview of the Grand Final in a few weeks’ time, but the Kangaroos, after such a dominant season, should be able to lock up a home Preliminary Final with a close win.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Kangaroos to win	$1.34
	Kangaroos 1-24	$2.40
	Kangaroos 1-39	$1.65

Predicted Squads

North Melbourne Kangaroos: FB: L. Birch, J. Ferguson HB: N. Bresnehan, E. Shannon, S. Wright C: T. Gatt, J. Garner, T. Craven HF: V. Wall, B. Eddey, N. Martin FF: T. Randall, K. Shierlaw Fol: E. King, M. King, A. Riddell IC: E. O’Shea, R. Tripodi, A. Smith, K. Rennie, A. O’Loughlin

Kuwarna Crows: FB: Z. Prowse, S. Allan HB: B. Tonon, C. Randall, K. Mueller C: M. Newman, E. Marinoff, N. Kelly HF: T. Charlton, S. Goodwin, D. Ponter FF: C. Gould, H. Munyar Fol: J. Allan, A. Hatchard, C. Randall IC: R. Martin, K. Kustermann, N. Allen, S. Thompson, T. Levy

The Dockers have enjoyed a really solid season, and though they are clearly a rung below the top four teams, three consecutive wins to round out the home and away season saw them finish at 8-3 – the same record as the Crows and only percentage outside of the top four. Granted it was a whole lot of percentage, but still – they have been extremely solid all season long and have put themselves in a good position to win a final or two. They come into their Elimination Final against the Bombers in some solid form, though having not played a finals side for over a month they will have to be prepared for a little more stiff opposition to what they have become accustomed to of late. Still, you can only beat the teams in front of you, and over the past three weeks they have done that relatively comfortably, beating the Dogs, Eagles and Giants by an average of just under four goals. On their home turf against the Bombers, they should be confident in their ability to keep that winning streak alive and take their season into the semi finals.

The Bombers are not easy beats by any means though, and do also come into the finals in some solid form of their own. They had to win to make the eight last week after the Demons pumped the Magpies, but up against the Blues they were always expected to do so, and they did – comfortably. That followed on from a solid draw against the Tigers, giving them a 6-1-4 record to end the season. For most of the season the Bombers have been relatively predictable – they have been generally able to dispose of teams lower than them on the ladder, but haven’t ever really given the top teams too many troubles, which doesn’t bode particularly well for their ability to do any damage in the finals. In fact, they haven’t beaten a finals team all year, including the Dockers, who beat them by 43 points way back in Round 1. That hefty a margin is probably unlikely this time around, but it’s hard to imagine a different result. The Bombers are the least capable team in the top eight of making any sort of charge in the finals, and the Dockers have been really solid all year. In a game between two teams that have generally performed as expected most weeks this season, it’s hard to imagine the Dockers failing to get over the line in this one.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Dockers to win	$1.45
	Dockers -8.5	$1.91
	Dockers 1-39	$1.70

Predicted Squads

Walyalup Dockers: FB: M. Scanlon, L. Pugh HB: J. Flynn, E. O’Driscoll, J. Low C: S. Verrier, D. East, O. Lally HF: A. Runnals,G. Biedenweg-Webster, M. Kauffman FF: H. Miller, E. Antonio Fol: M. Strom, A. McCarthy, G. Newton IC: T. Kikoak, J. Cregg, P. Seth, A. Mulholland, G. O’Sullivan

Essendon Bombers: FB: A. Mocrom, A. Van Loon HB: G. Clarke, M. Gay, A. Gaylor C: S. Alexander, G. Nanscawen, B. Keaney HF: A. Clarke, E. Gamble, J. Vogt FF: B. Toogood, D. Bannister Fol: M. Dyke, M. Prespakis, S. Cain IC: M. Busch, B. Walker, G. Gee, B. Brown, A. Radford

The Hawks were expected to rise this season, but few could have predicted the extent to which they have improved in 2024. They started the season impressively and only got better as it wore on, incredibly making it through their 11 games with just a solitary defeat – that coming back in Round 3 when they lost to the Crows by 26 points. They are a worthy top two finisher, but it is worth noting that they have not yet had to face either the Kangaroos or the Lions yet this season. As impressive as they have been this year, the only game that they have played against a fellow top four team they lost comfortably, so they do enter this game still needing to prove that they are capable of doing what they have done all year against the best in the business. And the Lions, undeniably, fit right into that category.

Last year’s Premiers started off the season in disappointing fashion, going down by 44 points to the North Melbourne side that they beat in last year’s Grand Final, but since then they have hardly put a foot wrong. They lost just one more game for the rest of the home and away season, that coming three weeks ago when they were beaten by the Cats by ten points, and their 9-2 and percentage of 182.4% are both representative of a team more than capable of going back to back and winning a third Premiership in four years this season. Unlike the Hawks, they have beaten a top four side this season, knocking off the Crows much earlier in the season, though that game could very easily have gone the other way – the Lions kicked the last two goals in the dying minutes of that one to win by just two points. That game is probably representative of the fact that very little separates the teams in the top four, North Melbourne aside, and this is a very tough game to pick a winner in as a result. But as good as the Hawks have been, they have not had to do it against any top four teams this season and have not yet done it in the finals either. That’s not to say that they cannot, but the Lions have both experience in this situation and have done it against the best both this year, and in the past. That may well count for something in what should be a tight game. Expect it to go down to the wire, but the reigning Premiers might just be able to knock off the impressive Hawks on the road to advance straight through to a home Preliminary Final.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Lions to win	$1.71
	Lions -2.5	$1.91
	Lions 1-39	$1.85

Predicted Squads

Hawthorn Hawks: FB: J. Richardson, A. Kemp HB: T. Smith, L. Elliott, T. Lucas-Rodd C: K. Ashmore, M. Breed, G. Bodey HF: M. Eardley, A. Gilroy, A. McDonagh FF: L. Stephenson, B. Hipwell Fol: L. Wales, E. Bates, E. West IC: M. Williamson, J. Fleming, C. Sherriff, E. Everist, J. Vukic

Brisbane Lions: FB: J. Dunne, P. Boltz HB: N. Grider, B. Koenen, J. Ellenger C: C. Mullins, A. Anderson, O O’Dwyer HF: S. Conway, D. Davidson, L. Postlethwaite FF: T. Smith, C. Hodder Fol: T. Hickie, I. Dawes, C. Svarc IC: E. Hartill, S. Davidson, S. Davison, E. Long, R. Svarc

• Though the Hawks have lost just one game this year, they have played just one game against their fellow top four teams all season, and that was the one they lost – and comfortably, too.
• The Crows have not lost a game by more than eight points all season so should be competitive, but no one has beaten the Roos so far in 2024.
• The Dockers beat the Bombers by 37 points when the two sides met earlier in the season.

Multi of the Week

The Power have shown gradual improvement ever since entering the league and, from the outset of 2024, looked primed to have their best season yet. And sure enough, as the season has worn on they have gone from strength to strength, from a team seemingly capable of at least challenging to finals, to a likely finalist, and ultimately to a top six team. Five wins in a row to end the season saw them end the home and away season with a 7-4 record, and with the Tigers failing to win any of their last three games, Port Adelaide were able to secure an unexpected home Elimination Final. Not that they made it easy for themselves – they should have been much too good for the Giants but actually trailed for virtually the entirety of that game, but two late goals saw them grab their first lead of the game 20 minutes into the last quarter and resulted in a one-point win that saw them leapfrog the Tigers into 6th spot.

Falling to 7th was a really disappointing end to the season for the Tigers, given that for much of it they were seemingly part of a runaway top five. They were right in the mix for the top four for much of the season, but the last three weeks have shown that they are not at the level of the Crows, Hawks, Lions and Kangaroos. Granted it has not been a particularly easy fixture for the Tiges over the past three weeks, but nonetheless, for a team with top four ambitions, losses to the Demons and Hawks and a draw to the Bombers to round out their season is far from ideal. Prior to that stretch of games, however, there is no denying that they had played some very good footy. They were sitting at 6-2 at that point, their only losses coming by one-point to the Eagles in Round 1, and by 12 points to the Kangaroos – one of the more competitive efforts against the league’s best team this season. Their best has probably been better than that of the Power this season, but have lost that form just at the wrong time of the season. But despite their form, that talent remains. This will be a tough game against a solid team on the road, but the Power have zero in the way of finals experience and Richmond, at their best, is the better team. They will have to turn things around in a big way after the past few weeks, but while the Power enter in winning form, they weren’t exactly at their best either against the Giants last week. This is yet another intriguing game in a fascinating first week of finals, and the Tigers, despite their indifferent recent form, can turn things around to sew up a semi-final berth.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Tigers to win	$1.58
	Tigers 1-39	$1.80
	Tigers 1-24	$2.30

Predicted Squads

Yartapuulti Power: FB: M. Brooksby, A. Borg HB: T. Germech, E. O’Dea, S. Syme C: S. Goody, M. Moloney, K. Pope HF: J. Miller, J. Mules-Robinson, M. Keryk FF: A. Saint, G. Houghton Fol: O. Levicki., C. Hammond, P. Window IC: K. Lamb, A. Foley, E. Boag, J. Stewart, C. Wendland

Richmond Tigers: FB: G. Seymour, R. Miller HB: B. Lynch, I. Bacon, L. Graham C: M. Shevlin, G. Egan, K. Dempsey HF: GE. Yassir, T. Luke, M. Ford FF: C. Greiser, A. Dallaway Fol: P. Kelly, E.McKenzie, M. Conti IC: C. Ryan, J. Hicks, T. Lavey, E. Sheerin, K. Brennan

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