NRL 2024 Semi-Finals – Betting Tips, Odds & Predictions

And then there were six. The first weekend of the NRL Finals is now complete, and by and large it went as expected, with the higher ranked teams winning each of the first three games – first the Panthers over the Roosters, then the Storm over the Sharks and finally the Cowboys over the Knights. The best game of the weekend was saved until last when the Bulldogs hosted the Sea Eagles in what turned out to be the only upset of note. The Bulldogs, after such a brilliant year, opened up a 22-12 lead in the second half, but consecutive converted tries to the visitors saw them steal the lead in the 72nd minute and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Their reward for that win is the unenviable task of taking on the Roosters at Allianz Stadium this Saturday, while the other semi will see the Sharks take on the Cowboys the night prior. Take a look at our in-depth previews for both of those games below.

Preliminary Final weekend kicks off with the Sharks ‘hosting’ the Cowboys at Allianz Stadium, though while they won’t be playing on their home deck they will still have some sort of home ground advantage given they are welcoming a team from interstate. The Sharks came into the finals series as the black sheep in the top four, seemingly clearly a rung below the Storm, Panthers and Roosters, but having won four of their last five games prior to the finals – three of those wins in dominant fashion and the last of them by 20 points against a fellow finalist in the Sea Eagles – they had reason to believe that they could at least be competitive against that talented top three. At least last weekend, they were not. The gap between them and the Storm was apparent, quite literally, from the outset, with Cameron Munster crossing the line in the first minute of the game. The Sharks bounced back ten minutes later and actually went into half-time just four points in arrears, but they were left in the dust of the home side in the second half, conceding four tries and failing to score themselves to ultimately go down 37-10.

The Cowboys, meanwhile, come into this semi-final as the lower ranked side, but one riding a wave of momentum. Like the Sharks, they came into the finals in some hot form, and in fact theirs was arguably as hot as that of anyone in the league. The Cowboys won six of their last seven games of the regular season, beating the Bulldogs twice, as well as the Sharks and the Storm in that time, In their last three games, they beat the Raiders by 38 points, the Storm by eight and then the Bulldogs by 38, a dominant run of form which saw them slide up to 5th spot by season’s end and earn a home Elimination Final against clearly the worst team in the top eight in the Knights – no disrespect to the Knights intended, but there was a clear top seven. And lo and behold, the Cowboys proved too good. It didn’t always look destined to go their way after they conceded a 12-4 lead to the visitors at half-time, but like the Storm against the Sharks, the Cowboys put their foot down in the second half. With just eight minutes to go the scores were tied at 16 apiece and the game was well and truly in the balance, but a Reuben Cotter try was followed by another by Tom Dearden in the 78th minute, and that was all she wrote, the Cowboys running out 28-16 winners.

They were certainly not at their best in that game, but they did what they needed to do when they needed to do it and the result was a seventh victory in their past eight games. And after what the Sharks dished up last week, it is very easy to imagine a second straight sets exit after a top four finish in just the past three seasons. But this is a trap which it is so easy to fall into every year. Invariably in a semi-final, the team which won their way there through an Elimination Final appears to have their collective tail up, while the opposite is true for the loser of a Qualifying Final, and as a result it is always easy to anticipate the lower ranked team continuing on their merry way with a win. More often than not, however, it’s the team which was better throughout the course of the season which ends up in the Preliminary Final; after all, they have been the better team all year and always play the semi-final on their own home turf.

That may well be the case this Friday night. The Sharks were undoubtedly really poor last weekend, but save for a down patch through the middle of the year, they have had a really strong season. The Cowboys certainly enter this in some serious form – probably their best form of the year – but just a few weeks ago they were far from guaranteed a spot in the finals. Jesse Ramien should be a welcome return for the home side, and with close to a full bill of health they can win their first final since way back in 2018.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Sharks to win	$1.60
	Ronaldo Mulitalo to score a try	$1.61
	Sharks -4.5	$1.88

Predicted Squads

Cronulla Sharks: 1. Will Kennedy 2. Sione Katoa 3. Sifa Talakai 4. Kayal Iro 5. Ronaldo Mulitalo 6. Braydon Trindall 7. Nicho Hynes 8. Toby Rudolf 9. Blayke Brailey 10. Oregon Kaufusi 11. Briton Nikora 12. Teig Wilton 13. Cameron McInnes 14. Daniel Atkinson 15. Jack Williams 16. Royce Hunt 17. Thomas Hazelton 18. Braden Hamlin-Uele 19. Tuku Hau Tapuha 20. Jayden Berrell 21. Samuel Stonestreet 22. Jesse Ramien

North Queensland Cowboys: 1. Scott Drinkwater 2. Kyle Feldt 3. Valentine Holmes 4. Villiami Vailea 5. Murray Taulagi 6. Tom Dearden 7. Jake Clifford 8. Jordan McLean 9. Reece Robson 10. Jason Taumalolo 11. Heilum Luki 12. Jeremiah Nanai 13. Reuben Cotter 14. Sam McIntyre 15. Harrison Edwards 16. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki 17. Griffin Neame 18. Jaxon Purdue 19. Chad Townsend 20. Thomas Mikaele 21. Braidon Burns 22. Tom Chester

There is no doubting that the Roosters belong in the category of standout Premiership favourites alongside the Panthers and the Storm, but they are probably the ugly duckling of the group and proved as much last weekend. As dominant as they have been for large periods of the year, the Roosters have not quite been able to replicate those performances against the best of the best, and they were brought undone by the three-time reigning Premiers in last weekend’s Qualifying Final. There shouldn’t be too much need for added incentive in a game like that, but the Roosters came out of the blocks looking like they needed a kick up the bum, conceding four tries in the first 22 minutes and going into the half-time break down 24-0. Two tries in the first six minutes of the second half gave them some sort of a pulse, but they had left themselves far too much work to do against a side as good as the Panthers and ultimately didn’t even score again, going down comfortably 30-10 to book themselves a spot in the semi-final. And they won’t have things all their own way as they attempt to avoid an ignominious straight sets exit.

The Sea Eagles did not end the season all that well, suffering two losses in their last three games of the regular season – including one to the Tigers – and their Round 27 defeat to the Sharks ultimately cost them 6th spot and the chance at a home Elimination Final against the Bulldogs – incidentally, who they beat in Round 26. As it turned out, that did not matter. In a quality game up against a team which, for large parts of the year, looked deserving of a top four spot, the Sea Eagles overcame a 22-12 deficit in the second half with the last two tries of the game to record a thrilling 24-22 win – against a team which lost just two games at home all year, no less.

But as mentioned in the Sharks vs Cowboys preview above, it is easy to fall into a trap of backing the team coming off a stirring victory the week prior – particularly when the loser of the Qualifying Final was so comprehensively beaten. But since opening the season 3-3, the Roosters have not lost many games, and those that they have lost have generally been to top four teams. In fact, just twice since those opening six weeks have they been beaten by a team which didn’t end up finishing in the top four – once to the Cowboys by two points, and then inexplicably to the Raiders in their second last game of the regular season. The Sea Eagles are a good team and were excellent last weekend, but they have got their work cut out to beat this Roosters outfit.

These sides have, in fact, played twice this year and the Sea Eagles have been mighty competitive in those games, winning the first 21-14 and then losing a few weeks ago 34-30. That would suggest that they will give themselves a chance in this game, and so they should. But the Roosters have been sitting alongside the Panthers and the Storm as Premiership favourites all season long for a reason. There is no doubt after last weekend’s effort that they have lost a few fans, and they are clearly the least likely of those three teams to go all the way now, but don’t write them off just yet. This is a very, very good team, and though the Sea Eagles are capable of giving them a run for their money on Saturday, the home side should be able to book a Preliminary Final date with the Storm with a strong win.

Bookmaker	James’ Tip	Odds
	Roosters to win	$1.62
	Roosters -3.5	$1.86
	Roosters 7+	$2.15

Predicted Squads

Sydney Roosters: 1. James Tedesco 2. Daniel Tupou 3. Joseph Suaalii 4. Joey Manu 5. Dom Young 6. Luke Keary 7. Sandon Smith 8. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves 9. Connor Watson 10. Lindsay Collins 11. Angus Crichton 12. Sitili Tupouniua 13. Naufahu Whyte 14. Siua Wong 15. Spencer Leniu 16. Nat Butcher 17. Terrell May 18. Zach Dockar-Clay 19. Fetalaiga Pauga 20. Blake Steep 21. Michael Jennings 22. Victor Radley

Manly Sea Eagles: 1. Tom Trbojevic 2. Tommy Talau 3. Tolutau Koula 4. Reuben Garrick 5. Lehi Hopoate 6. Luke Brooks 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Taniela Paseka 9. Lachlan Croker 10. Matt Lodge 11. Haumole Olakau'atu 12. Karl Lawton 13. Jake Trbojevic 14. Ben Trbojevic 15. Josh Aloiai 16. Ethan Bullemor 17. Nathan Brown 18. Clayton Faulalo 19. Jamie Humphreys 20. Tof Sipley 21. Gordon Chan Kum Tong ​​​​​​​22. Corey Waddell

• The Cowboys might have won their last game against the Sharks, but that broke an incredibly long hoodoo saw them beat Cronulla just once in the previous 12 games – and that came in extra time. What’s more, the Sharks won the first matchup between these two sides this year 44-6.
• Ronald Mulitalo has been the Sharks leading try scorer this year, and has been in excellent form of late. He didn’t score against the Storm but crossed the line in the four games prior, scoring six tries in those four games.
• Prior to their inexplicable loss to the Raiders in Round 26, the Roosters had won five in a row at home, four of which came by at least 18 points.

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