Saturday Racing Tips - Eagle Farm 01/06/24

There is an excellent day of racing in prospect at Eagle Farm on Saturday with some competitive races for the horse racing bookmakers to price up. There are two Group 1 races on the card as well as a Group 2 and three Group 3 races across the nine-race offering.  
 
(Note: Odds provided by bet365) 

Selections:
#2 Just Folk - $6.50
#3 Adelaide River - $5.50 
#11 Jimi Hendrix (ROUGHIE OF THE DAY) - $23.00 
#15 Shock ‘Em Ova - $3.60 

BEST BET - #2 Just Folk

Better than ever this prep at the age of seven, winning the Group 3 Hawkesbury Cup two starts back before a game effort at the level above last time on a deep track. Hawkesbury was the first time that Nash Rawiller has had the ride on him, back in the saddle here. He goes on all ground, is adaptable with regards to trip and he likes to go forward which is going to keep him out of trouble in this big field. 

THE DANGER - #3 Adelaide River

A very interesting recruit from the northern hemisphere where he was runner-up in the Irish Derby last year, filling the same position in the Grand Prix De Paris the following start. He is without a doubt one of the most talented imports we have seen for a while here and there is a strong chance that he is going to be a class apart from these. He went well fresh when with Aidan O’Brien so it will be interesting to see how fit Kris Lees has him on his debut but his best form has come over 2400m so this is plenty short enough for him.  

VALUE BET  - #11 Jimi Hendrix

Failed to settle early on when ridden forward on a heavy 10 track on his most recent start. He has not made the frame in any of his starts when the mud has been flying to that extent so he will appreciate the return to a sounder surface. Made his debut at this track at the end of April after showing some solid form in Europe, the winner of the Royal Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot last June over 1600m. Showed the pick of his form there in blinkers so it is a minor worry that the headgear is still missing but he will be helped by a bigger field and a more patient ride. 

Selections:
#17 Stefi Magnetica (BEST BET) - $3.50
#7 Schwartz - $5.00 
#4 Corniche - $7.00 
#3 Steparty - $10.00

BEST BET - #17 Stefi Magnetica

One of three in here with a triple figure rating, her 106 level making her the top in the contest. One of the other two is drawn out in barrier 22 which narrows down her strongest rivals and despite the big field, the number of horses with a genuine winning chance here is limited. Her last two starts have both come in Group 1 races, runner-up in the Surround Stakes at Randwick before finishing fifth in the Doomben 10,000. A repeat of that level should be more than enough dropping into a Group 3.  

THE DANGER - #7 Schwartz

Has a bit on his plate strictly on the ratings but he is one of the least exposed in here after just six career starts, winning three of them. Went to the front when saluting in the Hawkesbury Guineas on his most recent start, arguably the best run of his life so far. This is a much bigger field to try and dominate from on the speed but he has a tidy barrier in five so should not have to use up too much petrol to take a prominent pitch. Looks like the type who has more to come so needs plenty of respect. 

VALUE BET  - #4 Corniche

One of the other two along with the top pick to have a rating north of 100. He was 0.6l in front of Schwartz in the Arrowfield at Randwick in mid-April but things mapped out better for his hold-up style that day than they did for his more prominent racing rival. This bigger field will demand that he takes a more prominent pitch but the rain forecast on Saturday looks in his favour as he is 0/7 on good ground and 2/2 when the ground has been soft or heavy. The heavier the rain, the stronger his chance will become. 

Selections:
#1 I Wish I Win (NEXT BEST) - $3.80 
#2 Think About It - $6.50 
#9 Bella Nipotina - $6.50 
#11 Magic Time - $6.50

BEST BET - #1 I Wish I Win 

Barrier one was given as an excuse for his defeat in the Doomben 10,000 last time out and he has been drawn right on the inside once more. That is not ideal but he was only beaten a hair that day by Bella Nipotina and the refitting of blinkers and having his mate Luke Nolan back in the saddle could see that form reversed. He needs things to drop right for him but there is little doubt that he is one of the most talented sprinters in the country on his day and can show that here. 

THE DANGER - #2 Think About It

Things have not really gone right this prep for the Joseph Pride-trained horse but it is not all that long ago that he saluted in The Everest to make it 11 wins in his first 12 career starts. He was 0.4l in front of the top pick in that Randwick contest, a race where I Wish I Win once more drew the inside barrier. A break to freshen him up since his last start should be a plus for his chances as will the drop back in trip after running over 1600m and 1500m the last twice.

VALUE BET  - #9 Bella Nipotina

Has only won twice in 19 starts at Group 1 level but she has shown up to every dance and has shown remarkable consistency in doing so. One of those Group 1 wins was on her most recent start in the Doomben 10,000 when she was in front of I Wish I Win, a horse that she also finished one place in front of in the T J Smith so she has the level of form required to add a third Group 1. She needs the forecast rain to be heavy though as the deeper the ground, the better her chance will become.  

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There is a complete book of nine rides for Michael Dee on Saturday at Eagle Farm as long as his emergency reserve in race six gets a start. That is probably an unlikely scenario as EM5 but it will depend on how many scratches are made when the rain falls on Saturday. Dee has some interesting rides, including a mare who many think has frame claims in the Kingsford Smith Cup. She is a $6.50 shout on the betting sites and looks set to run a solid race.  
 
R1 - #5 - Poison Chalice - $3.20 
R2 - #12 - Geriatrix - $12.00 
R3 - #4 - Captain Envious - $10.00 
R4 - #1 - Cleveland - $21.00 
R5 - #9 - Omnic - $34.00 
R6 - #23 - Acid Wash - $61.00 
R7 - #11 - Magic Time - $6.50 
R8 - #17 - Moonlight Magic - $34.0 
R9 - #1 - Revolutionary Miss - $13.00 

A good-sized roughie this week adds to our potential return on the multi tip. It is quality racing at Eagle Farm with a couple of Group race tips on the day which we hope can run to form with our best bet and next best both in these contests.

R4 - #11 - Jimi Hendrix - PLC $5.50 
R6 - #17 - Stefi Magnetica - PLC $1.85 
R7 - #1 - I Wish I Win - PLC $1.80 

Total Odds = $18.32
$50 Stake = $915.75 Return!

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Eagle Farm Racecourse Trifecta Tip (R6) 
 
1st: 3, 4, 7, 17 

2nd: 3, 4, 7, 17 

3rd: 3, 4, 7, 17 

$50 stake = 208% flexi