Saturday Racing Tips - Flemington 03/08/24

Here we are, another season starts and it is straight into action at headquarters. The Aurie’s Star is the feature of the day with just a field of eight heading to the barriers. Seven of the eight runners are rated 95 or higher but it is the one that isn’t who is favourite with the horse racing bookmakers. We also have a $26 roughie on the card, an import who should do better on his second start here. Let’s start the 2024/25 season with some winners!

(Note: Odds provided by bet365)

Best of the Day

Flemington Race 4 -

#3 Midtown Boss

Win: $2.60
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Place: $1.45
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Next Best

Flemington Race 6 -

#8 Right To Party

Win: $3.50
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Place: $1.55
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Roughie of the Day

Flemington Race 7 -

#14 Tajanis

Win: $26.00
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Place: $6.00
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Flemington Race 4 - Jockeys Celebration Day Sprint (1100m)

Selections:
#3 Midtown Boss (BEST BET) - $2.60
#1 Veloce Carro - $5.00
#6 Fortunate Kiss - $11.00
#4 Home Rule - $9.00

BEST BET - #3 Midtown Boss

First or second in nine of his 12 career starts, he looks to still be improving. Was a little flat at Warrnambool when he was last seen. That was a Listed contest where he finished fifth. Despite the official level, the winner was runner-up in the Group 1 Underwood last September and second had won the Group 3 Aurie’s Storm on this card last season. It was a race that was much stronger than Listed level, back in a Benchmark 84 here for his first run of the season. These softer surroundings are going to be a help to him and he has two wins and a third from four runs when first up so his record fresh is notable.

DANGER - #1 Veloce Carro

Would probably prefer the ground to be a little quicker but he has run some of his best races at this track in the past. He has a win and two second-place finishes in three runs over this 1100m test at Flemington so that ticks a big box for him. Chased home Crosshaven on June 22 here, a little disappointing when much further behind that rival in a 1200m Listed race last time out. Is another to come back into calmer waters and despite the ground, he has to be a big player at a track he loves.

VALUE BET - #6 Fortunate Kiss

This distance is a little on the short side for him but it is a suitable opportunity in terms of class for him on his first run for the Daniel Bowman stable. He was in front of Pride Of Jenni in a recent jump out at Cranbourne and while that is there is nothing much to be gleaned from that in terms of his current ability, it still reads well on his card. Has two wins and third when first up so he is fine fresh. A third behind Revolutionary Miss in the Group 3 Tressady in February reads well in the context of this race.

Flemington Race 6 - Aurie’s Star Handicap (1200m)

Selections:
#8 Right To Party (NEXT BEST) - $3.50
#1 Zarastro - $4.40
#2 It’sourtime - $7.00
#6 Crosshaven - $10.00

BEST BET - #8 Right To Party

Won a Listed race over this track and distance in her most recent run, looking well up to the task now that she steps back up to Group 3 level. She has run in this grade just once so far in her career when a close second in the Proud Miss at Morphettville. Still very much on the improve after 11 races, she has taken her form to a new level this prep. A straight sprint track clearly suits her and although she is the lowest rated in here, that might not be the case in a couple of months' time.

DANGER - #1 Zarastro

Is a danger if they give him too much rope on the front end here. Likes to get out in front and dictate and there does not look to be much pace pressure for him in this contest. Won the Group 3 Healy at Eagle Farm at the end of June and he seems just as at home on soft ground as he does on good. It would only be on heavy that he would struggle on and while there are some showers in the forecast for Flemington during Saturday, they should not be enough to downgrade the surface to heavy.

VALUE BET - #2 It’sourtime

The winner of this race in 2023, he will have been laid out in a repeat bid to try and double up. Saluted in the Listed Santa Ana Lane Sprint Series Final over track and distance on his most recent start for his fourth win at Flemington. That was the first time that Damian Lane has had the ride on him and the pair looked to instantly click. Won’t mind these conditions and has found his form at the perfect time to come back for another crack at this Group 3 contest.

Flemington Race 7 - VRC Spring Gala Plate (2000m)

Selections:
#8 St Vincents Garden - $4.60
#11 Star Vega - $4.80
#14 Tajanis (ROUGHIE OF THE DAY) - $26.00
#13 My Brother’s Keeper - $13.00

BEST BET - #8 St Vincents Garden

A former Joseph O’Brien runner in Ireland, his best form came over longer trips than this but he is a very classy import. Made his Australian debut over 1800m at Sunshine Coast, hitting the line hard in second. Looks sure to appreciate the longer trip, even if it is only an extra 200m. The pick of his form in Ireland came on a sound surface but he looked to cope fine with a Heavy 8 on that occasion. This slightly better ground should help and can make a step forward on his second start.

DANGER - #11 Star Vega

Third on his sole try at this distance at this track in February. That was a Benchmark 84, running in a Benchmark 78 here. The winner of that race has saluted at Listed level since and the runner-up has gone in off a higher rating so that looks very strong form now that he is racing at this level. Did some good late work at Sandown last time out to suggest that he wants this distance now. Soft ground is no concern and now that he has found his form again, he might be able to kick on again.

VALUE BET - #14 Tajanis

The market suggested that better was expected on his Australian debut but he was held up out the back of the field and never got competitive. Connections reach for a tongue tie for the first time so they clearly do not believe that was his true running. That is backed up by the fact he was sent off at just $5.50. 1600m that day would not be his ideal distance based on his UK form and 2000m might still be a little on the short side but this is a good galloping track which will help. Handles soft ground and was rated 81 when in the UK with William Haggas, very lightly raced and should have better to come.

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