Saturday Racing Tips - Flemington 05/08/23

It’s the first day of the 2023/24 racing season at Flemington on Saturday with the VRC Premiere Race Day. The build-up to the Spring Carnival starts here in Melbourne with the Group 3 Aurie’s Star Handicap taking centre stage. The Group 3 contest is over 1200m and features a roll of honour containing future Group 1 winners. Ten races are on the card with something for everyone from 1100m to 2530m. We have three online betting tips below.

(Note: Odds provided by Bet365)

Best of the Day	Flemington Race 6 #3 Shaiyhar	Win: $4.40 Bet Now	Place: $2.15 Bet Now
Next Best	Flemington Race 7 #4 It’sourtime	Win: $4.00 Bet Now	Place: $1.75 Bet Now
Roughie of the Day	Flemington Race 10 #1 Zac De Boss	Win: $21.00 Bet Now	Place: $4.80 Bet Now

Flemington Race 6 - VRC Member Simon Green Plate (Bm78) (2000m)

Selections:
#3 - Shaiyhar (BEST BET) - $4.40
#12 - Asgoodassobergets - $11.00
#4 - Court Deep - $12.00
#17 - Wascaly - $7.50

BEST BET - #3 Shaiyhar
The ex-French gelding was an impressive winner over today’s 2000m trip at this track in early June. His subsequent effort just a fortnight later over 2540m was poor by comparison, but that was a stronger race than this, and perhaps he just needed freshening up. His win was in a Bm84 contest, running in a Bm78 now and with what had looked like his main danger in Aristonous scratched, he is a strong pick. Blake Shinn is back in the saddle, and blinkers are fitted, so a much better performance is expected.

THE DANGER - #12 Asgoodassobergets
He failed to find cover early at Canterbury last time out, so easy to forgive that run. Before that, he was 4th behind Shaiyhar over this course and trip, beaten a little over three lengths but is now 3.5kg better off with his rival at today’s weights. Damian Lane is a jockey booking that catches the eye for trainer Annabel Neasham on her only runner on the card. Winkers off could help his keenness in the early stages - if he settles, he is a danger to all.

VALUE BET - #4 Court Deep
He probably wants the ground more in the line of heavy than he will get here, but he has been showing strong form in recent outings. A winner at Mornington two starts back, he filled the second spot on the starts on either side of that one. He is not often seen stretching out over this far, but he is a front-runner who will be looking to dictate the gallop, so it is interesting that Ciaron Maher and Dave Eustace run him in this contest.

Flemington Race 7 - Aurie Star Handicap (Group 3) (1200m)

Selections:
#4 - It’sourtime (NEXT BEST) - $4.40
#11 - Cause For Concern - $3.80
#2 - General Beau - $6.00
#7 - Much Much Better - $8.00

BEST BET - #4 It’sourtime (NEXT BEST)
He ended up wide around the turn, pushed out onto the wrong part of the track in the Group 3 Bletchingly last time out when far from disgraced, doing well to finish as close as he did in third. He is far better judged on his form over this track and distance in Listed company before, including a win in May. The return to this straight 1200m will be a positive move for him, with lots of back form at this level that makes him the one to beat. He has his conditions and should be rewarded for the consistency of his latest starts.

THE DANGER - #11 Cause For Concern
The winner of three of his last four starts, two at Flemington, both at handicap level. His latest win came over 1400m, where he stayed the trip well. He just lacked a touch of closing speed over this trip the time before in a Listed race which raises a slight question of whether the return to this distance will be in his favour, especially in Group 3 handicap company. He has only had eight races in his life, winning four of them, so he demands plenty of respect.

VALUE BET - #2 General Beau
General Beau finished in front of It’sourtime last time out in the Bletchingly. He got a better run around that day from the front. He probably didn’t want to be the one leading them out there, but both he and the eventual winner ended up with a far superior track position than the next best. It would be unfair to write him off as incapable of that level, however, given that his recent runs are at the top of what he has achieved in his career. He is without a win in 684 days, making him more of a place contender than a likely winner of this Group 3 handicap.

Flemington Race 10 - Jockeys Celebration Day Sprint (Bm84) (1100m)

Selections:
#2 - Benedetta - $2.10
#3 - Najem Suhail - $5.50
#1 - Zac De Boss (ROUGHIE OF THE DAY) - $21.00
#10 - Jack Of It - $26.00

BEST BET - #2 Benedetta
She has won four of her first five career starts, including the Inglis Sprint over 1200m at this track in March. The barrier draw stopped her from making it five out of six last time out. She did well to finish third that day from her barrier in 1, given that the first, second and fourth came from 14, 8 and 10 in a 15-runner race. Add to that the fifth, sixth, seventh and eighth came from barriers 13, 15, 11 and 12, and it’s clear that she massively overperformed, given her starting position. Short price but deserves to be.

THE DANGER - #3 Najem Suhail
Very impressive over 1000m here last time out, returned from a spell. This is an extra 200m and a deeper race, but he was visually very impressive that day, looking far too good for the field. That was his first start since being gelded, not racing quite as keenly as he had done in the past. It bodes well for the future if he can settle as well again over the longer trip and, with only ten races under his belt, should have the potential for a little more improvement.

VALUE BET - #1 Zac De Boss (ROUGHIE OF THE DAY)
Two wins and a third in four starts over this track and trip in the past, he was disappointing last time out over 1200m here, more so as the market suggested that he would run a big race. Back down to 1100m today, which will be a plus for him given that prior record. He is more than 400 days without a win, but at the prices, a place would not be a bad result, given that he is our roughie of the day.

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Jockey Of The Day - Blake Shinn

It’s a very strong booking of rides for Blake Shinn to enjoy on Saturday at Flemington. Only one of the eight is bigger than $11, and that’s our roughie of the day. Shinn also takes the ride on our best bet, so we are looking for him to have a super Saturday. All his rides are below:

R2 - #12 - Soobooma - $11.00
R3 - #6 - Warlords - $4.60
R4 - #5 - Fearnought - $5.00
R5 - #6 - First In Line - $10.00
R6 - #3 - Shaiyhar - $4.40
R7 - #5 - Zethus - $10.00
R9 - #9 - Poland - $5.50
R10 - #1 - Zac De Boss - $21.00