Saturday Racing Tips - Flemington 05/10/24

With so many black-type races on the afternoon, Flemington looks sure to be very popular on the betting sites. The Turnbull looks like an excellent contest and we have our Next Best on the card in the Group 1 race. We also have a huge $31.00 roughie which runs in the final race of the day.

(Note: Odds provided by bet365)

Selections:
#5 Moby Dick (BEST BET) - $2.15
#10 Wolfy - $6.00
#4 Warnie - $12.00
#8 Prinzerro - $7.50

BEST BET - #5 Moby Dick - (BEST BET)
Had been given an entry in the Group 2 Gilgai Stakes later on the card but connections have opted to send him into this Bm78 contest instead. He has only had five runs in his career so far, winning three of them, including on his first start this season. That came over 1100m at this track, coming from a fair way back in the field to salute. The visual impression is that he is going to do better for the return to a slightly longer trip and he can reward connections.

THE DANGER - #10 Wolfy
A little under two lengths behind Mody Dick on his first start of the season, he did some strong work late in the day. As such, he should be able to progress further for the return to this distance. He lost his way a little bit at the end of his last prep when tried over longer distances and also up into Listed class. Is 0/3 first up so should be able to step up on that return to action, with a win from two starts when second up.

VALUE BET - #4 Warnie
Winner of a Listed race in Ireland in August 2023, he makes his Australian debut here. Has only been seen once in the interim, in a Group 3 in France. That was more than 12 months ago so he is going to have to show his form on his return from a break. Ciaron Maher is a solid trainer when it comes to getting European imports to peak on debut for him which has to be a plus for his chance. Is lightly raced enough to have plenty of improvement to come and is interesting at a price.

Selections:
#4 Via Sistina (NEXT BEST) - $4.80
#3 Buckaroo - $4.40
#12 Place Du Carrousel - $15.00
#7 Atishu - $13.00

BEST BET - #4 Via Sistina - (BEST BET)
A heavy 9 surface was perhaps not to her liking when she was well down the field in the Makybe Diva last time out. She is better judged on her Winx Stakes win prior to that when she pounced late over 1400m. That was particularly impressive given that she has four wins and four second-place finishes over this distance of 2000m so this should suit her much better. Drier ground is another plus for her chance so looks the one to beat in this field.

THE DANGER - #3 Buckaroo
Absolutely ran riot in the Group 1 Underwood last time out, saluting by 3.5 lengths. That was the first time that Joao Moreira had ridden him, the Brazilian star in the saddle once more here. It was his first win in Group 1 company in eight starts so he is going to have to prove that he can do that again, returning to 2000m. The distance has not been a winning one for him in the past but he has placed in three of his six tries so can get himself in the mix once more.

VALUE BET - #12 Place Du Carrousel
Only eighth in the Underwood so has a bit to find on that form with Buckaroo but she was not given too hard of a time that day. She has two wins in three starts when she is second up so a step up on that form is expected now. Unlike that rival, she is going to improve for the step back up to 2000m. So far in her career, she has run over this distance five times, winning two and finishing second in two more. She could do with a little rain but there is plenty to like about her chance at the price.

Selections:
#4 Skybird - $4.00
#9 Miss Aria - $7.50
#16 Caste (ROUGHIE OF THE DAY) - $31.00
#6 Revolutionary Miss - $6.00

BEST BET - #4 Skybird
The winner of four of her eight starts so far, she was just touched off on her first start this season. That was against a solid yardstick and is back in against her own sex on this occasion. Group 2 company has been good to her in the past, two wins and a second in three starts at this level. She has been the winner of both of her starts when second up in the past and this looks a suitable opportunity for her to continue that unbeaten sequence on that run.

THE DANGER - #9 Miss Aria
1200m at The Valley on her first start of the season looked a little on the short side for her but she ran on, getting the splits at the perfect time to put her head in front close to the line. That looked a solid Bm84 beforehand and she has run well in black-type company in the past. A Group 2 here is going to demand a fair bit more of her but the step back up in trip on a stiffer track are both going to be big pluses for her. Is yet to show her best form at this track but she has only had two tries so it is too early to write her off.

VALUE BET - #16 Caste
Three runs this prep have been a long way short of her best. On those, it is not a surprise that she is as big a price as she is. Copes well with good and soft ground but was perhaps not best suited to a first run on heavy last time out. She was beaten less than three and a half lengths in a pair of 1200m contests prior to that, a distance that is one the short side for her. Back in May 2023, she was the winner of the Group 2 Queen Of The South. If she can find that level of form again, she is a monster of a price. It does need to be taken on trust that she is still capable of it but we are happy to take a chance with blinkers now on.

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If Lane has a good day on Saturday, then hopefully we have given the horse racing bookmakers something to think about. Lane is riding both our best bet and the next best on the card as part of a full book of 10 rides. Hopefully, there are a few winners in there this weekend for the top hoop.

R1 - #5 - Moby Dick - $2.20

R2 - #2 - Rumble Town - $4.00

R3 - #5 - Scary - $5.50

R4 - #2 - Fingers Hunter - $21.00

R5 - #3 - Aardvark - $26.00

R6 - #7 - Von Hauke - $7.50

R7 - #3 - Mahrajaan - $51.00

R8 - #4 - Via Sistina - $4.80

R9 - #5 - Ripcord - $12.00

R10 - #5 - Wrote To Arataki - $12.00

We are taking a sizable risk with our roughie of the day this weekend. It is a strong contest but the pick of her form from back in 2023 would see her massively overpriced if she can find that level again. The fitting of blinkers and stripping fitter might just see her outrun her large odds.

R1 - #5 - Moby Dick - PLC $1.28
R8 - #4 - Via Sistina - PLC $1.90
R10 - #16 - Caste - PLC $7.00

Total Odds = $17.02
$50 Stake = $851.20 Return!

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Flemington Racecourse Trifecta Tip (R10)

1st: 4, 6, 9, 16
2nd: 4, 6, 9, 16
3rd: 4, 6, 9, 16

$50 stake = 208% flexi