Saturday Racing Tips - Moonee Valley 07/09/24

The Moir Stakes is a competitive-looking Group 1 on Saturday. The horse racing bookmakers have three of the nine runners priced between $3.20 and $4.60. It is a great mix of the older sprinters taking on some of the younger and potentially progressive ones. The first two from the Golden Slipper last season add some further intrigue, representing the three-year-old generation. In such a difficult-looking contest, we have taken one at a roughie price to get the better of them.  

(Note: Odds provided by bet365)

Selections:
#4 Who Dares (NEXT BEST) - $4.60
#3 Arkansaw Kid - $2.10 
#2 Savannah Cloud - $8.00 
#6 A Little Deep - $5.00 

BEST BET -  #4 Who Dares 
Produced a gallant display of front running at Caulfield last time out, just run down in the closing stages by Arkansaw Kid. He was three-quarters of a length behind that day but is now 2kg better off at the weights. Adding to that is this track which should suit his front-running racing style, especially from the barrier draw right on the inside in one. This could be a case of him going out in front on the rails and the others simply unable to catch him around the tight bends. 
 
DANGER - #3 Arkansaw Kid 
The first two starts of a prep are the time to catch him. He won the first time up as mentioned above but he is going to have a much more difficult time here given the swing in the weights. His rival did have the fitness edge on him that day but that probably didn’t make any great difference given the solid record that this horse has when he is fresh. Is the clear danger to the selection given that he is 3/6 when he has run in Listed company in the past.   
 
VALUE BET - #2 Savannah Cloud 
First up is typically a good time to catch this seven-year-old. On seven first-up starts in the past, he has two wins, three second-place finishes and two thirds. He has a win and three seconds in five previous starts over this track and trip so clearly running here suits him well. Tends to sit close to the pace which perhaps explains a large part of that strong record here and in a small field, he should be able to take up his favourite position without having to expend too much energy. 

Selections:
#2 Pericles (BEST BET) - $2.30 
#4 Munhamek - $6.00 
#1 Attrition - $9.00 
#10 Showmanship - $10.00 

BEST BET - #2 Pericles 
Third on his return in the Group 2 Lawrence Stakes, only beaten three-quarters of a length. Despite that, Blake Shinn reported to the stewards that he was disappointed with the run. Given that the runner-up went on to win the Group 1 Memsie last Saturday, that seems a remarkable run to be disappointed in. It did take the first-up record of Pericles to 1/5 whereas second up he has two wins and two seconds from four starts so he does seem to sharpen up for that return to action. If that is the case again, given how strong that last run was, he should be very hard to beat.  
 
DANGER - #4 Munhamek 
Behind Pericles in the Lawrence when he was entering off the back of three straight wins. He was a little flat that day, running better last time when only beaten half a length in total. There is some solid form in his back catalogue around this track so he won’t mind being back here and this trip might be a little more suitable for him. He has plenty of miles on the clock but even at the age of nine does not appear to be slowing down just yet.  
 
VALUE BET - #1 Attrition 
Drawn a touch wider than he would like to be here so might need to be dropped in and ridden for some luck. Like Pericles, he tends to build on whatever he does first up in his second start of a prep so he should step forward here on his run at Morphettville when second. Was runner-up in a Group 2 at this track last September when second up so he needs plenty of respect back at a track that he handles. 

Selections:
#6 Estriella - $3.60 
#1 I Wish I Win - $4.60 
#5 Chain Of Lightning (ROUGHIE OF THE DAY) - $17.00 
#8 Lady Of Camelot - $3.20 

BEST BET - #6 Estriella 
Was a touch disappointing in the Sangster when last seen in action but that was always going to be a very tough field to try and boss from the front. She is in barrier eight here which is not ideal but this track is going to be much more suitable for her being on the speed. Her opponents on this occasion do not look like taking her on up front so this maps with her getting a very soft lead despite the wider-than-ideal barrier. She’s only had eight career starts so there should still be better to come from her. 
 
DANGER - #1 I Wish I Win 
It seems unlikely that a bare 1000m around here is going to be what this gelding is looking for. That said, he is a true class act and there will not be any who are finishing stronger than he is. At 117, he is comfortably the top-rated of these and he has the form in the book to back up that level. He has never been out of the first three home in seven starts when he is first up as he is now. Fresh clearly suits him then and although this does look too sharp for him, it would be a surprise if he is not in the frame.  
 
VALUE BET - #5 Chain Of Lightning 
Is not the most consistent but she popped up at the perfect time to take out the TJ Smith Stakes earlier in the year. That was her first win at Group 1 level but this looks like a solid opportunity for her to at least add another place to her record. She goes well when she is fresh with two wins and two thirds in five starts and the only prior time that Damian Lane has had the ride on her was in that TJ Smith victory. Second only to I Wish I Win on official ratings, she looks a little bit on the long side at the current odds.

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Shinn broke through the 1900 winner barrier recently and should move a few steps closer to another huge milestone with his Saturday rides. It is a very strong book, including a couple of the best-supported favourites of the day on the betting sites. One of those is our best bet of the afternoon so we have our fingers firmly crossed that he has at least one winner there! 

R1 - #3 - Captain Barbossa - $3.60 
R2 - #8 - Written In Code - $5.00 
R3 - #1 - Aramco - $4.20 
R4 - #15 - Name Dropper - $8.00 
R6 - #2 - Immortal Star - $3.00 
R7 - #4 - Bosustow - $10.00 
R8 - #2 - Pericles - $2.30 
R9 - #6 - Estriella - $3.60 
R10 - #8 - Miss Aria - $5.50 

It is an excellent card at Moonee Valley on Saturday afternoon. It is a track where you do need to have a bit of luck so we are hoping that we have that on our side. As always, we are looking to our roughie to boost the price as we look to pick up a multi tip win. 

R5 - #4 - Who Dares - PLC $2.20 
R8 - #2 - Pericles - PLC $1.40 
R9 - #5 - Chain Of Lightning - PLC $3.70 

Total Odds = $11.40
$50 Stake = $569.80 Return!

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Moonee Valley Racecourse Trifecta Tip (R8) 
 
1st: 1, 2, 4, 10 
2nd: 1, 2, 4, 10 
3rd: 1, 2, 4, 10 

$50 stake = 208% flexi