Saturday Racing Tips Flemington 07/10/23

Quality is written all over Flemington's Saturday card, with the betting industry buzzing over the Australian debut of the Hong Kong star Romantic Warrior. His rating marks him down as one of the top 10 racehorses on the planet at this moment in time, so it is no shock that he has been priced up short by the horse racing bookmakers. He will head to post in the 4.25 pm contest, the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes.

(Note: Odds provided by Bet365)

Best of the Day	Flemington Race 9 #2 Star Patrol	Win: $2.30 Bet Now	Place: $1.22 Bet Now
Next Best	Flemington Race 4 #2 Legacies	Win: $3.20 Bet Now	Place: $1.75 Bet Now
Roughie of the Day	Flemington Race 8 #11 Soulcombe	Win: $8.50 Bet Now	Place: $2.50 Bet Now

Flemington Race 4 - Edward Manifold Stakes Group 2 (1600m)

Selections:
#2 Legacies (NEXT BEST) - $3.20
#13 Poifect - $6.50
#9 Subrising- $17.00
#1 De Sonic Boom - $7.50

BEST BET - #2 Legacies
A touch below her best in the Exford last time out, but she is back against her own sex here rather than taking on the boys. That is a big plus to her, as could be the return to a slightly softer surface. The only time she has encountered ground officially described as soft, she routed a Listed field last April by four and a half lengths. After just four career starts, there should be improvement to come from her, and she looks too good for them even on what is already in the book.

THE DANGER - #13 Poifect
Poifect is one of a number in here who contested the same Listed race at Caulfield last time out. She had to be held up from a wide barrier, which was not ideal, but she finished her race strongly. Backed into $3.00 that day, a strong performance was expected, and with a little more luck in how the race mapped out, she would have been closer. Should be fitter the second time up and has to rank as the main threat to the selection.

VALUE BET - #9 Subrising
Not helped by poor track position in the Listed Jim Moloney, held up stone-cold last in a race where the winner made all. Not only was she at the back, but she was also very wide on the track, still yet to pass a rival heading into the final 200m. She steps up from 1400m to 1600m, which looks a big plus for her chance. Form on soft ground already in the book is another box ticked, so it would be no surprise if she massively outruns her price.

Flemington Race 8 - Turnbull Stakes Group 1 (2000m)

Selections:
#1 Romantic Warrior - $2.00
#11 Soulcombe (ROUGHIE OF THE DAY) - $8.50
#7 Osipenko - $7.00
#5 West Wind Blows - $8.00

BEST BET - #1 Romantic Warrior
The day's feature race and the first start for Romantic Warrior on Australian soil. The winner of three races at this Group 1 level in Hong Kong, his natural ability is that of a star, and that is reflected both in the price and that his official rating marks him down as one of the top 10 racehorses on the planet. In theory, he should be far too good for this field for all that there are some solid performers in opposition. The concerns are the softest surface he will have ever encountered and how he handles the tie-up part of the day before running.

THE DANGER - #11 Soulcombe
A massive eyecatcher last time out in the Underwood. Settled out the back that day, he stayed on well to grab 4th at the line behind the winner, Alligator Blood. He lifts in trip from 1800m to 2000m for this contest, a move that is sure to suit given he won over 2800m when trained in the UK. This is only another step on the path to the bigger targets later in the spring, but he has only had ten races in his life and shapes as if there is a much bigger run in him for the Chris Waller and Craig Williams combination.

VALUE BET - #7 Osipenko
Another who represents the powerful Chris Waller team, he was third last time out in the Makybe Diva. A touch under two lengths behind Mr Brightside there, that is a solid run in the context of this race. Up from 1600m to 2000m now, he was strong at the line on that occasion and has a win over this trip. It might seem strange to say that stamina is a concern, but that win was a small field, and the second and third are not close to this level and patently failed to stay. As such, he still has little to prove over this far.

Flemington Race 9 - Gilgai Stakes Group 2 (1200m)

Selections:
#2 Star Patrol (BEST BET) - $2.30
#14 C’est Magique - $6.00
#1 Jigsaw - $5.50
#11 Triple Missile - $10.00

BEST BET - #2 Star Patrol
He showed a great attitude to win the Group 2 Bobbie Lewis over this same 1200m on his first start of this preparation. He had some notable names behind him that day and deserves extra credit for being on the pace the entire way. The other one who helped set the pace faded to a distant 9th, and that was a $6.50 chance, so not a roughie. The fact that Star Patrol not only saw that rival off but also held off the charge of the closers first up suggests that he is better than ever at the age of five.

THE DANGER - #14 C’est Magique
She was off for more than 300 days before she reappeared in the Group 3 Cockram, finishing third. The race winner was Benedetta, who finished third to Star Patrol in the Bobbie Lewis. At these weights, she holds strong claims in receipt of 4kg from Star Patrol. The slight issue with her is that she is yet to add to her maiden debut win in four subsequent starts. That is not to say that she is in any way ungenuine, but rather that others seem to have her measure at this sort of level at present.

VALUE BET - #1 Jigsaw
He was very progressive last prep, and the only time he has been beaten in the previous 12 months was in the Group 1 William Reid at The Valley, finding the likes of Imperatriz beyond him. There was no disgrace in that, picking up a win at this Group 2 level in January. He is the central speed angle in this race, and coming from the four barrier, he should be in control of things early on. He might find it harder to hold off this big field late on without a prior run this prep, but it would be no surprise if he is right in the mix at the finish line.

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Multi Tips For Flemington

A couple of favourites and one to take on one of the shorter prices on the card make up our multitip for Flemington on Saturday afternoon. A big galloping and generally fair track - there is a good reason why it is one of the country's top tracks regarding the quality of the racing.

R4 - #2 - Legacies - PLC $1.75
R8 - #11 - Soulcombe - PLC $2.50
R9 - #2 - Star Patrol - PLC $1.22

Total Odds = $5.34
$50 Stake = $266.88 Return!

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