Saturday Racing Tips - Rosehill 07/12/24

The Group 1 racing is sparse as we head into December but that does not mean that the racing itself is not interesting. Rosehill is a great example of this at the weekend with some cracking little handicaps on the card. With improving types all over the place, these can be tricky cards for the betting sites to price up. We have three tips on the card that we feel represent strong winning chances which include a roughie who has won or placed in each of the last nine times that he has raced!

(Note: Odds provided by bet365)

Selections:
#2 Private Harry (BEST BET) - $2.20
#3 Theblade - $3.20
#6 Candlewick - $10.00
#5 Manuscript - $7.50

BEST BET - #2 Private Harry - (BEST BET)
Unbeaten in his two career starts, he can continue that sequence in this tasty Bm72 for three-year-olds. On paper, this looks like a race that is going to produce runners at a higher level so it is worth keeping an eye on in 2025 as a strong form guide. This son of Harry Angel has run riot in both of those wins. A 3.44 length winner on his debut over 900m at Newcastle, he went to Hawkesbury stepping out to 1100 and won by seven lengths on a good 4 track. Looks sure to improve for another 100m and could be a hard horse to beat.

THE DANGER - #3 Theblade
Has only been seen once so far in his career, winning at Kensington on a Soft 7 surface. This is a much quicker surface so he has a little bit to prove on this ground but he is from the family of Black Caviar so there should be no problem. He won by almost six lengths himself on debut, hugely impressive there. Given he has only had that single start, he is very much in the could-be-anything bracket which makes him a fascinating rival for them all here. That was back in August so he is fresh again here against race-fit rivals which just see him as second-best.

VALUE BET - #6 Candlewick
Both of her starts have come at Wyong so far, a winner on her debut and then second last time out. She was a little bit unlucky not to be unbeaten in those starts, finding her path blocked off at a key time and only beaten 0.2 of a length at the line. This is a deeper race for her to run in which is a comment that could be said for all of the field. Having the widest barrier of the field might not be the ideal starting position for her but there is plenty to like about her.

Selections:
#9 Shangri La Spring (BEST BET) - $2.60
#3 Fiddlers Green - $3.50
#1 Ravello - $8.00
#7 Darling Downs - $5.00

BEST BET - #9 Shangri La Spring - (BEST BET)
This three-year-old has made a promising start to his career. Runner-up on his race debut on soft ground at Goulburn, he has won both of his starts since. Each of those was on good ground so these conditions are going to suit him. This is a step up in class now away from the smaller tracks but he has made a fair jump of improvement with each start and looks well set to take it in his stride. 64 looks well within his capabilities with his 0.9l conqueror on debut off 69 after winning both starts since.

THE DANGER - #3 Fiddlers Green
Could not have been more impressive at Hawkesbury last time out. He put almost five and a half lengths into his field to justify being backed into $2.60. That was his first success when first up in three starts, with a win and a second when second up so he should strip fitter for that effort. He has had 10 runs now so has more miles on the clock than the best bet and all three of his wins have come at Hawkesbury. That aside, there is no reason to think that Rosehill will not be fine for him and he is clearly still improving. 

VALUE BET - #1 Ravello
Has a 61 kg impost here but his form warrants his burden. He won a Bm78 first-up at Warwick Farm, continuing his exceptional record when fresh. Runner-up in the Coonamble Cup on his second start, he produced another strong run last time out when fifth in the Little Dance. He was beaten less than four lengths in that Randwick contest, running against rivals as high as 100. His rating of 74 makes him the top weight in this Bm70 so this is a massive drop in class for him. Fresh would see him make more appeal but he needs respect.

Selections:
#7 I’mintowin - $3.40
#6 Konasana - $4.60
#5 So Risque (ROUGHIE OF THE DAY) - $9.00
#11 Franz Josef - $12.00

BEST BET - #7 I’mintowin
This is a tougher race than the one that he won at Kembla Grange last time out but he was impressive. He has run at Rosehill three times in the past, finishing first, second and fourth. The fourth was on a heavy surface and he was beaten less than a length in total. Sounder ground here will not be an issue for him and Adam Hyeronimus has only ridden him once, that was when he saluted at Kembla Grange.

THE DANGER - #6 Konasana
Tends to show her best form when she is able to track the pace. She sat third during the early stages when placed in a Flemington Group 3 two starts back and has the innermost barrier to start from here. It is easy to forgive her the run at Cranbourne last time out when she was unable to get over from a wider draw in 10. She was still beaten less than a length and a half and this could map out better for her.

VALUE BET - #5 So Risque
It has been a while since the veteran has got his head in front but he has been incredibly consistent. January was his last win but he has not finished worse than third in his last nine starts! He arrives fresh with two wins and two seconds from six starts when first up in the past. The most important thing to him is good conditions underfoot, He has six wins, a second and four thirds in 17 runs on good ground with just a single win in 12 starts on soft or heavy. The weather suggests the ground will remain how he likes it here.

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Berry is one of the most consistent types in the jockey’s room with plenty of good rides on Saturday. The prices from the horse racing bookmakers suggest that he is going to have a decent afternoon at Rosehill. He has a book of six rides on the day and the biggest odds are $7.00 so Berry would perhaps be disappointed if he were to go home from Rosehill without having saluted at least once during the day.

R1 - #3 - Theblade - $3.20
R3 - #3 - Sunchyme - $7.00
R4 - #4 - Heed The Omens - $5.50
R6 - #8 - Modesty - $4.60
R7 - #7 - Drift Net - $3.40
R8 - #6 - Konasana - $4.60

With good ground as the prevailing conditions at Rosehill this weekend, the cream should rise to the top. With a roughie this week who is very hard to keep out of the frame, we are hoping to have a winning return to Rosehill.

R1 - #2 - Private Harry - PLC $1.22
R5 - #9 - Shangri La Spring - PLC $1.70
R8 - #5 - So Risque - PLC $3.20

Total Odds = $6.64
$50 Stake = $331.84 Return!

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Rosehill Racecourse Trifecta Tip (R8)

1st: 5, 6, 7, 11
2nd: 5, 6, 7, 11
3rd:  5, 6, 7, 11

$50 stake = 208% flexi