Saturday Racing Tips Flemington 09/03/24

The Newmarket handicap is the feature race on Saturday’s card that also holds two Group 2 and two Group 3 contests. 

Saturday will be a great day for those who love to see sprinters in full flight. The Group 1 Newmarket Handicap is the top contest at Flemington but there is also a Group 1 sprint at Randwick which we have covered in our separate multibet tip piece. With a huge impost of 58kg, it is very much the day that Imperatriz can prove that she is one of the very best sprinters on the planet. The horse racing bookmakers have put her in as the favourite but can she defy the weight to all of her rivals? 

(Note: Odds provided by Bet365)

Selections:
#3 Legacies - $6.00
#1 Scheelite (ROUGHIE OF THE DAY) - $10.00
#5 Vivy Air  - $8.50
#7 Pivot City - $6.00

BEST BET - #3 Legacies
The Group 3 Zeditave Stakes at Caulfield looks like the best form guide to this race. Legacies was 6th that day but it is a run that is easy to mark up as she was trapped wide without any cover through the majority of the contest. It was still a rock solid run first up and this is a little ease in class. She has not won since April 2023 but has kept some strong company since, most notably when second to Veight in the Group 3 McNeil last September at Caulfield. That level of form reads very well in this contest. 

THE DANGER - #1 Scheelite
Just behind Legacies in 8th in the Zedative, he is another who can have that run marked up as he had the opposite issue to that filly, he could never find a gap or any running room when it mattered. As such, he was unable to really stretch out and show what he is capable of. He is another who was set some tough tasks in the spring, again behind Legacies in the McNeil before pitched into Group 1 company in the Caulfield Guineas and Coolmore Stud. He may well finish behind her once more and softer ground would be preferred, but he is too big of a price to ignore. 

VALUE BET  - #5 Vivy Air
Third in the Group 2 Sandown Guineas when she last raced, she was ridden a little more forward than day having been using extreme hold up tactics in her two Group race runs prior to that. She won first up last prep in a BM 64 and was thrown into the deep end in Group company on her three subsequent starts. Like Scheelite, she would probably appreciate getting her toe in a little more on softer ground but is another who should find this field a little easier in general compared to those she took on in the spring.

Selections:
#3 Buenos Noches (NEXT BEST) - $4.80
#1 Imperatriz  - $2.50
#2 Bella Nipotina  - $11.00
#6 Magic Time - $7.00

BEST BET - #3 Buenos Noches
Improved enough to take on Group 1 company in the spring and although he was fairly easily seen off in the Everest, he was a strong opponent for Imperatriz when just failing by half a length against her in November. Got given a shocking ride the first time up this prep at Randwick but this track and distance saw his career-best run in that aforementioned November contest. If he can tap back into that level of form at Flemington again, he might be capable of topping the market leader. 

THE DANGER - #1 Imperatriz
It is so hard to oppose Imperatriz but she is 4.5kg worse off at the weights with the next best for only beating that horse half a length in the VRC Classic over this track and distance in the spring. Showed all of her courage first up this prep in the Lightning over 1000m at this course, seeing off Everest third Private Eye for her 9th Group 1 win. She is the type who digs in deep when she is challenged so even the impost of 58kg and that swing in the weights might not stop her but at the prices, she is not the value bet in here. 

VALUE BET  - #2 Bella Nipotina
There are not many as game as Bella Nipotina, very rarely failing to run her race. She was behind Imperatriz in the Lightning first up and the step out to 1200m from 1000m is going to be a big plus for her here. She only has a single win in the last 12 months so she is probably best placed in the exotics again but that success came when beating the Everest first and third, Think About It and Private Eye, at Rosehill in the Winners. That level of form puts her right there with the top Group 1 performers in the country so she needs a huge amount of respect.

Selections:
#3 Amenable (BEST BET) - $1.95
#1 Berkshire Shadow  - $3.50
#2 Pinstriped - $7.50
#4 Savannah Cloud  - $7.00

BEST BET - #3 Amenable
Has always been well thought of by the Mick Kent and Michael Price team and they have put him in some tough races as a result. To be fair to the horse, he has always acquitted himself well, 5th in the Group 1 Memsie and 4th in the Group 1 Toorak in the spring. The Memsie especially was impressive, only beaten 2.3 lengths with the four who beat him home being Mr Brightside, Princess Grace, I Wish I Win and Alligator Blood! He meets nothing of that class here. 

THE DANGER - #1 Berkshire Shadow

It will be interesting to see how the ex-European runner moves in the market on his first start for the Ciaron Maher stable. He was a very smart two-year-old when he was in training with Andrew Balding in England, the winner of the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot in 2021. His two subsequent wins were at a much lower level but he was not beaten far in a Group 1 at Newbury last May so he has to be respected now that he makes his debut on these shores. 

VALUE BET  - #2 Pinstriped
Two wins and two second place finishes in his five first-up runs so far in his career suggest that he is one to take seriously when he is fresh. He did not manage to get efforts to the same quality of Amenable on the board in Group 1 races in the spring but he was only one place and 1.75 lengths behind the best bet in the Toorak. A repeat of that should have him in the frame in this contest to start his autumn off the right way.  

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The star of last Saturday when she saluted in the Australian Guineas at this track, Kah has a strong set of rides once more this week. She might struggle to do more than place in the Group 1 Newmarket but there are a couple of rides on the card that the betting sites have priced up to suggest that she is going to be saluting at Flemington once more. 

R1 - #4 - Hedged - $2.50
R3 - #14 - Some People Callme - $13.00
R4 - #3 - Traffic Warden - $6.50
R5 - #14 - Cylinder - $12.00
R6 - #10 - Pink Chandon- $21.00
R8 - #3 - Unusual Culture- $4.40

Some top quality action again from Flemington this Saturday afternoon. Although the card is shortened because of the hot weather, there are still eight winners to find! We hope that these three will at least place in their respective races to give us a successful multi tip on the day. 

R3 - #1 - Scheelite - PLC $3.10
R5 - #3 - Buenos Noches - PLC $1.90
R7 - #3 - Amenable - PLC $1.20

Total Odds = $7.07 
$50 Stake = $353.40 Return!

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Flemington Racecourse Trifecta Tip (R7) 

1st: 1, 2, 3, 4 

2nd: 1, 2, 3, 4 

3rd: 1, 2, 3, 4 

$50 stake = 208% flexi