Saturday Racing Tips Morphettville 11/05/24

We have been hitting the woodwork over the first two weekends of the Adelaide Carnival at Morphettville and hope to get some winners on the board. The Goodwood is the feature race of the afternoon and the betting sites have been talking about how much of an effect the draw will have in the 16-runner field. It is a race that has been won by the likes of Takeover Target and Black Caviar in the past and the 1200m contest looks to have a strong field this year. In recent years the draw has not had any bearing on the race so let’s take a look at the races that we are putting up tips in this week.

(Note: Odds provided by Playup)

Best of the Day	Morphettville Race 5 #4 Sea What I See	Win: $1.95 Bet Now	Place: $1.24 Bet Now
Next Best	Morphettville Race 8 #15 Oscar’s Fortune	Win: $13.00 Bet Now	Place: $4.00 Bet Now
Roughie of the Day	Morphettville Race 7 #14 4 Barbie’s Fox	Win: $6.00 Bet Now	Place: $2.25 Bet Now

Morphettville Race 5 - Centaurea Stakes (2019m)

Selections:
#4 Sea What I See (BEST BET) - $1.95
#1 Seonee - $4.20
#5 Silent Surrente - $7.50
#6 Tycoon Bec - $20.00

BEST BET - #4 Sea What I See
Is a perfect 5/5 so far in 2024, making serious improvement with each of her starts. She was absolutely dominant at Mornington on her most recent outing, looking well set for the step up in class to Listed level here. She had run riot at Flemington prior to that, the last time that Blake Shinn got the ride. He is 4/4 on her, striking up a great relationship and they can continue their 100% record now.

THE DANGER - #1 Seonee
Has to give 2 kg or more to all of her rivals which is going to make her task harder but she is the class act in here and still has a strong chance on the official ratings. She saluted in the Group 2 Queen of the South Stakes last time out which is a much deeper contest than this Listed race. That was over 1600m, stepping up to 2000m for the first time in her career here. She is strong over the 1600m distance so there is a fair chance that she is going to be able to improve a little more.

VALUE BET - #5 Silent Surrente
Third behind Seonee in the Queen of the South on her most recent start, a little under three lengths behind that rival. She is 3kg better off at the weights here which should see her close that gap up considerably. A winner at about this distance here in October, the return to this far should be a plus for her. She came from the further back of the front four in that most recent race so that run can be marked up a little bit.

Morphettville Race 7 - The Cummings Stakes (1600m)

Selections:
#1 King Magnus - $8.00
#4 Sirileo Miss - $8.50
#14 Barbie’s Fox (ROUGHIE OF THE DAY) - $13.00
#11 Jimmy The Bear - $4.40

BEST BET - #1 King Magnus
Is well into the veteran stage now but he still retains a lot of ability and has a solid chance in this given the way that the weights are framed. He won the Group 3 Heffernan over 1400m at this track in December, finding things didn’t go his way in a Group 2 at Randwick on his final start of his last prep when wide and getting a bump. He was ridden more forward than can sometimes be the case here on his return to action and he has an excellent record when second up, winning three of his six starts.

THE DANGER - #4 Sirileo Miss
Like King Magnus, she has an excellent chance at the weights in this Group 3 contest. She missed an entire year of action so it should be easy enough to excuse her run at Bendigo four weeks ago. She was not beaten far there, just fading late on so she looks sure to improve for that run. She has four wins and two runner-up efforts in six second up runs and that record has to make her of huge interest given that she was a Group 2 winner in 2023.

VALUE BET - #14 Barbie’s Fox
Has been given some very tough tasks over the last year, running in Group 1 company in three of her last seven starts, She was never really competitive at that sort of level but she was only four lengths behind the likes of Zougotcha and Atishu in the Queen of the Turf at Randwick last month which reads well at this level. A smaller field and a more forward ride were perhaps not in her favour in the Vobis Gold Mile but she was third there and if this drops right from a wide draw, she is more than capable of outrunning her price.

Morphettville Race 8 - The Goodwood (1200m)

Selections:
#15 Oscar’s Fortune (NEXT BEST) - $6.00
#9 Johnny Rocker - $8.50
#2 Amelia’s Jewel - $4.00
#7 Benedetta - $5.00

BEST BET - #15 Oscar’s Fortune
Three-year-old does not have many miles on the clock, just nine starts so far in his career, winning five, second in three and third in the other. That third came last time out in the Group 1 Quokka when he was only 0.2 of a length behind Amelia’s Jewel. He is 3kg better off at the weights with that mare now and that should be more than enough for him to reverse the places. He has a middle draw here which gives William Pike plenty of options of where to go and he can settle anywhere in the field.

THE DANGER - #9 Johnny Rocker
Has improved a huge amount this season and is now knocking on the door of the top sprinters in the country chasing home Imperatriz in the William Reid in March. Heavy ground was probably not ideal for him in the T J Smith given that he was well beaten on his only other start with cut in the ground so he is going to appreciate being on a sound surface here. He is yet to run at this track but there is no reason to think that he will not be fine.

VALUE BET - #2 Amelia’s Jewel
Has long been well regarded but she has not really kicked on since winning a pair of Group 2 contests in the spring. They came over 1400m at Flemington and 1600m at The Valley but she has shaped well in a pair of sprints the twice that she has been seen in action in the autumn. The most recent of those was in the Quokka at Ascot when she chased home Overpass, a strong level of form to bring here. She has a wide draw but that has not been an issue in this contest over the last couple of years.

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Jockey Of The Day – Lachlan Neindorf

Two weeks removed from winning his first Group 1 on Climbing Star in the Sangster, the 22-year-old is back on the mare taking on the Goodwood field on Saturday. She might not get the same charmed run up the inside as she did that day when she did the horse racing bookmakers a massive favour by saluting but Neindorf will be riding with a huge amount of confidence at present.

R1 - #5 - Kinetic Jewel - $4.40
R3 - #8 - Mystic Wonder - $41.00
R4 - #13 - You Oughta Know - $91.00
R6 - #19 - Right To Party - $18.00
R7 - #17 - En Francais - $21.00
R8 - #3 - Climbing Star - $17.00
R9 - #15 - Wally West - $14.00