Saturday Racing Tips Rosehill 12/10/24

Although the Alan Brown Stakes is only a quality contest rather than a black type, it stands out on the Rosehill card. It is a deep field in terms of both quantity and class so it should be no surprise that it is where we head for our roughie of the day. Given the volume of numbers, the betting sites are sure to do lots of business on another excellent Saturday afternoon.

(Note: Odds provided by bet365)

Best of the Day

Rosehill Race 9 -

#3 Olentia

Win: $2.90
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Place: $1.55
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Next Best

Rosehill Race 5 -

#1 Coleman

Win: $3.80
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Place: $1.65
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Roughie of the Day

Rosehill Race 8 -

#5 Semana

Win: $11.00
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Place: $3.50
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Rosehill Race 5 - Canadian Club Roman Consul Stakes (1200m)

Selections:
#1 Coleman (BEST BET) - $3.80
#4 Gatsby’s - $5.50
#2 Switzerland - $6.50
#11 Spirit Of Wealth - $3.60

BEST BET - BEST BET - #1 Coleman - (BEST BET)
Has only had eight starts in his life, the last four of which have all come at Group 1 level. He takes a small step down the ladder here into a Group 2 contest. So far this prep, he has finished sixth in both the Moir and the Manikato. Beaten a combined 4.36 lengths in those two starts, he has been plenty competitive in those deep races. This is a set weights contest which could be a very smart piece of placing by trainer Matt Laurie. He has an eight-point higher rating than the second-best and 16 over the third so that gives him an outstanding chance of getting his head back in front.

THE DANGER - #4 Gatsby’s
Was behind the re-opposing Perspiration last time out but there were excuses. That was probably the worst ground that he has raced on and he was on the inside which was no help. He steps up to 1200m again here which is going to be in his favour and he has only had five races in his life. There should be plenty more to come from him and if this maps out a little kinder than last time out, he can reverse that form.

VALUE BET - #2 Switzerland
On official ratings, he is the second best of these. He was unbeaten through the first three starts of his career, sent off at $5 for the Golden Slipper where he ended his two-year-old season in eighth. His opening start of this prep was below par in the Run To The Rose but he has been freshened since. Connections add a stallion chain plus will fit ear muffs before the race to try and keep him channelling his energy correctly. If it works, he’ll be hard to keep out of the frame.

Rosehill Race 8 - Alan Brown Stakes (1400m)

Selections:
#10 Gringotts - $4.00
#18 Waterford - $9.00
#5 Semana (ROUGHIE OF THE DAY) - $11.00
#16 Makarena - $8.50

BEST BET - #10 Gringotts
Seriously progressive in the autumn, winning all three of his races in that prep. He was desperately unlucky not to add to that winning run in a Group 3 at Randwick to open up his spring. Held up between the 400m and 200m, he would’ve won but for that, going under by a tiny margin. There are five wins on his record in nine starts over this distance and he is yet to finish out of the frame in three starts at Rosehill. Still improving, he’ll need luck in a big field but is the one to beat.

THE DANGER - #18 Waterford
Needs one of his rivals to come out as he is the first emergency reserve. If he does get in, he is a massive runner in this field. The return to a shorter distance to start his prep looks a plus and fresh is often the best time to catch him. In six first-up starts in his career, he has three wins and two third-place finishes. Four of his five career wins have come at Rosehill so starting his season here makes perfect sense. His biggest issue is that he needs to be ridden stone cold so things have to fall just right for him.

VALUE BET - #5 Semana
An interesting mare at this level given that five of her last six starts have come in Group 1 races. She was fourth in the Winx Stakes to kick off this season, just 1.33 lengths behind the winner Via Sistina who has bolted up again since. Zougotcha and Fangirl were the other two who were in front of her, a very strong level of form to bring to this race. She was a little below par in a Group 2 last time but she was given a soft ride and is likely to sit closer to the pace from the innermost barrier here so better is expected.

Rosehill Race 9 - The Nivison (1200m)

Selections:
#3 Oletnia (BEST BET) - $2.90
#2 Roots - $9.00
#8 Ballroom Bella - $12.00
#10 Peace Treaty - $9.00

BEST BET - #3 Olentia - (BEST BET)
Not always the most consistent mare but the one time that you can almost bank on her to show her best form is when she is first-up. In four runs when she is fresh, she has three wins and a second so this is the time to catch her. She boasts three wins from five starts over this distance and has won two of her four starts at this track. The last time that she ran in a Group 3 at this track she was fourth behind Chain Of Lightning who would win the Group 1 T J Smith two weeks later. That level of form would make her hard to beat.

THE DANGER - #2 Roots
This distance is as short as she wants these days but she has some solid form over 1200m in her career. In four starts over this distance, she has two wins and a third. That would suggest that she is going to be fine back in trip despite her last two coming over 1400m, including the Group 1 Tattersalls Tiara. She was runner-up in a Group 3 at Newcastle on the only start that she has made in this prep. The winner is a very progressive mare so there was no disgrace in finding her too strong. She might find one too good again here but she looks sure to give it a good go.

VALUE BET - #8 Ballroom Bella
Has not got her head in front since September 2023 in a Bm64 but has been running well in some decent-quality races since. Runner-up in the Group 2 Sapphire at Randwick in April, she was below par in her final start last prep and arrives off the back of five months out of race action here. She filled the same second spot the only time that she has run over 1200m at this track. Boasts one win fresh from three runs so is capable without a prior start and shaped well in a couple of trials last month.

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Jockey Of The Day – Tommy Berry

A full book of 10 rides in the afternoon for Berry. The most important one of those is our best bet of the afternoon in Race 9. Six of the 10 are at single-figure odds with the horse racing bookmakers. On paper at least, it is a solid book for him to enjoy at Rosehill.

R1 - #11 - Monte Kate - $9.00
R2 - #3 - Don Stafano - $26.00
R3 - #8 - Mare Of Mt Buller - $8.00
R4 - #2 - Henlein - $3.60
R5 - #11 - Spirit Of Wealth - $3.60
R6 - #3 - King Of Roseau - $11.00
R7 - #13 - Hinged - $21.00
R8 - #10 - Gringotts - $4.00
R9 - #3 - Olentia - $2.90
R10 - #4 - Stromboli - $23.00