Saturday Racing Tips - Caulfield 13/07/24

We are taking on the betting sites this Saturday afternoon at Caulfield with our top pick on the day running in the feature contest. We also have a roughie that looks overpriced because of the wide barrier that she has drawn but she was bigger earlier in the week so the money is coming. But for that, she would be considerably shorter odds and on very deep ground, it might not be ideal to be too close to the rails in any case so we are happy to give her a shot in this big field handicap. 

(Note: Odds provided by bet365)

Selections:
#10 Little Jack (NEXT BEST) - $4.60
#12 Jabbawockeez - $8.00 
#7 Concorde - $9.00 
#3 Desperado $9.00 

BEST BET - #10 Little Jack 

Has only been out of the first two once in the seven starts that he has had and that was on his debut outing. He copes well with soft ground, winning over this track and distance last time out, the only time that he has raced at Caulfield. That was his first run over as far as this, producing a time that was very smart for the ground. The four-year-old has very limited miles on the clock, goes on any ground and gets on well with this hoop so he holds very strong claims. 
 
DANGER - #12 Jabbawockeez 

0/4 on good ground, 4/9 when it is soft or heavy so he is going to relish these conditions. Second and third in his two starts at this track so far, he gets a change of headgear from winkers to blinkers and that could be enough to see him right in the mix again. Like the top pick, he has only raced over this trip once in his life so there is scope for him to do better with that experience under his belt.  
 
VALUE BET - #7 Concorde 

Boasts an outstanding record when he ran on soft ground in the UK, winning all four of his starts there on that surface. He was not to that level on his Australian debut which also came on soft ground. Entitled to come on for the run and the step back up to this 2000m trip might just help him given his top display in the UK came the only time that he ran over this far. Very interesting given that record and he could take a step forward now.  

Selections:
#6 Major Share - $4.40 
#10 Marble Nine $7.50 
#12 Cinematic Star (ROUGHIE OF THE DAY) $12.00 
#3 Oak Hill $7.00 

BEST BET - #6 Major Share 

A perfect 3/3 in his career so far, looking worth a try at this better level now. Two of those were on soft ground, although not as deep as he is going to face here, but it gives hope to his supporters that these conditions are going to be fine for him. He is a pace tracker so he should be able to take a nice position from a middle barrier. This is a slight step up in trip to 1100m for the first time and he might well be able to improve for it. 
 
DANGER - #10 Marble Nine 

Only had four starts in his life so there should be plenty more progression to come from him. It was a strong race that he ran in at Flemington last time out, the winner that day, The Black Cloud, shaped as if a Group class horse in the making. Perhaps that was a tough enough ask for him at this stage of his career but his prior run at the same track behind Right To Party is a smart piece of form and a repeat of that is going to make him a big player.  
 
VALUE BET - #12 Cinematic Star 

She has wins on all sorts of ground so will not mind what the weather does with some progressive form when the surface is soft. She was a touch unlucky in running at Rosehill last time out, squeezed up on the inside into the rail and then not able to get much of a run at things when short of room late on in the day. She will not have that problem this time around given that she is out on the wing in barrier 17, and that draw is what is making her the price that she is. 

Selections:
#2 Recommendation (BEST BET) - $3.00 
#3 Mornington Glory - $3.20 
#1 Ashford Street - $6.00 
#5 Mrs Chrissie $5.50 

BEST BET - #2 Recommendation 

Has a solid record first up and the conditions have come in his favour with two wins and a second in three runs on soft ground in the past. He has only failed to finish in the first three in one of his five group or Listed races, that coming on his most recent start over this track and distance in the Group 1 Oakleigh Plate. He was below par at Yarra Valley when last in action but this looks a suitable opportunity for him to get himself back into the winning frame of mind once more. He was a close third in the Group 2 Australia Stakes at The Valley at the end of January behind Veight and Southport Tycoon and that form is strong at this level. 
 
DANGER - #3 Mornington Glory 

Was in front of Recommendation in the Oakleigh Plate over this course and distance in February which would give him strong claims at this level. That was on a Good 3 surface which is very suitable for him, yet to make it into the first three when the ground has been soft or heavy which has to be a concern on this occasion. The class is without a doubt there for him to play a leading role but that ground gives him plenty to prove. 
 
VALUE BET - #1 Ashford Street 

Has more runs to his credit than the top two tips combined so he has plenty of miles on the clock. He is the second best in here on official ratings and he enjoys ground that is on the soft side so conditions are going to be perfect for him here. On the book, he is likely to find one or two of these too good for him but this looks one of the better opportunities he has had to make an impression in a Group 3 contest. 

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Made the headlines last Saturday when he hit the horse racing bookmakers for six as he landed a treble at Flemington. That came just two days after he won two races at Sale, producing a 50% strike rate for the week from July 4 to July 10 with six winners from 12 rides. The 25-year-old is clearly riding with plenty of confidence at present and that can roll over into another successful Saturday.  
 
R1 - #1 - Miss Roumbini - $2.90 
R2 - #10 - Lethal Thoughts - $19.00 
R3 - #17 - Manolo Bling - $8.00 
R4 - #11 - Willabilloo - $19.00 
R5 - #14 - Matron Bullwinkel - $13.00 
R6 - #11 - Lauding - $5.50 
R7 - #2 - Steel City - $34.00 
R8 - #5 - Mrs Chrissie - $5.50 

Soft ground is the order of the day at Caulfield this weekend so past form when the mud is flying is going to be a big plus. All three of our selections for Saturday have winning form when the ground is soft so we are hopeful that they can use that to their benefit.  

R5 - #10 - Little Jack - PLC $2.15 
R7 - #12 - Cinematic Star - PLC $3.60 
R8 - #2 - Recommendation - PLC $1.36 

Total Odds = $10.53
$50 stake = $526.32 return! 

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Caulfield Racecourse Trifecta Tip (R8) 

1st: 1, 2, 3, 5 
2nd: 1, 2, 3, 5 
3rd: 1, 2, 3, 5 

$50 stake = 208% flexi