Saturday Racing Tips - Flemington 14/09/24

It is a card full of black-type races at Flemington on Saturday afternoon. There is a Group 1, two Group 2 races, a Group 3 and four Listed contests across the 10-race card. With all of that quality on show, there should be plenty of action on the betting sites, especially with the Group 1 Makybe Diva Stakes having such a strong field. Another rematch between Mr Brightside and Pride Of Jenni as they take on Memsie Stakes winner Pinstriped as well as Winx Stakes winner Via Sistina in what should be the race of the day. 

(Note: Odds provided by bet365)

Selections:
#1 Growing Empire (BEST BET) - $1.95
#12 Reserve Bank- $10.00
#7 First Settler - $8.50
#9 Ndola- $12.00

BEST BET - #1 Growing Empire - (BEST BET)
Runner-up in his debut race but he has won all three since. The most recent of those came in a Group 3 contest, back down into a Listed race here. He saluted by 1.25l in the McNeil and that was a win where he could have won by an awful lot more than that distance. Mark Zahra is a perfect 2/2 on him and has a good record when he has ridden for Ciaron Maher. This colt could be a class apart from these with the likelihood of plenty more to come from him after just four career starts.  

THE DANGER - #12 Reserve Bank
Has only had a single start so far in his career, at Bendigo back in June. He could hardly have been more impressive there, coming home five and a half lengths to the good. There is a strong chance that there is going to be an awful lot more to come from him. Clearly fresh is going to be no concern for him and it is very interesting that connections pitch him in here with a rating of 64 in receipt of just 2.5kg from one rated 88 in particular. He could have been put into a much lesser contest than this one so it is interesting that he is tried in here.  

VALUE BET  - #7 First Settler 
A perfect 2/2 in his career so far, he steps up from 1000m to 1100m here which has the benefit to suit him. The most recent of those came at this track so clearly the straight course is no issue for him. Both of those races had the same runner-up so it is a slight concern that the gap was closed considerably from first start to second. Perhaps that runner is just a real improver, in which case this colt has to be given strong consideration.  

Selections:
#4 Nicolini Vito - $4.80
#5 Holymanz - $6.00
#13 Devoted (ROUGHIE OF THE DAY) - $15.00
#12 Chrysaor - $19.00

BEST BET -  #4 Nicolini Vito
Got given plenty to do at Morphettville last time out but hit the line hard, finishing third. He was 0.2l behind Attrition off level weights that day. That rival was the winner of the Group 1 Toorak last season so that is very strong form to bring to the table. He will like it if the ground stays good but he can cope with softer ground as well. Blake Shinn is an interesting jockey booking for the Hayes stable, 6/18 when they have teamed up so far this season and the first time that Shinn has ridden this horse. 

THE DANGER - #5 Holymanz
Things have not really gone right for him in either of his two starts this prep. Held up in a race won off the front last time out at Moonee Valley and was held up in his run the race before at this track. Is going to need his share of good luck in this big field as well but he does enjoy his racing at this track. He has a win and two second-place efforts in five visits so he should be in the mix again here.  

VALUE BET  - #13 Devoted
Was in front of Holymanz at this track on August 3. He was fourth next up over 1600m when he just looked to lack a little bit in the latter stages and will appreciate being back down to 1400m. He was pitched in deep in the So You Think at Moonee Valley last time out when only five lengths behind Pericles. That was not a bad effort and this is a lesser contest than that one. Has two wins and two third-place runs in Group races so he is an interesting one at this level.  

Selections:
#6 Pride Of Jenni (NEXT BEST) - $6.50 
#8 Via Sistina - $2.40 
#1 Mr Brightside - $3.00 
#2 Pinstriped - $8.50 

BEST BET -#6 Pride Of Jenni 
We said two weeks ago that we were hugely against this mare first up. A record of 0/7 when fresh meant that she was always there to be taken on. To be fair, she ran poorly even for a mare with a moderate record in those circumstances. Despite that, she is an absolutely enormous price here with those cobwebs blown away. This is a more suitable trip for her, the ground looks ideal and she has two wins in three starts over 1600m at Flemington. The pick of the milers in all of the country back in the autumn, she gets a chance to show that she is still a formidable force here.  

THE DANGER - #8 Via Sistina
An impressive winner on her first start in Australia when fresh. She was then well behind Pride Of Jenni on her second outing. First-up proved to be a happy time once more when she saluted in the Winx Stakes. Things opened up beautifully for her to time her challenge to perfection on that occasion but once more on her second start of a prep, she is faced with Pride Of Jenni. She is the favourite here simply because of Jenni’s flop rather than her win so has to be considered a false market leader until she proves otherwise. 

VALUE BET  - #1 Mr Brightside 
One of the top milers in the country over the last couple of seasons. It was the spring that saw him in his best form last season, beating Alligator Blood in this contest. He had won the Memsie prior to that in 2023 and although he was in front of Pride Of Jenni in the 2024 running of that race, he was unable to beat Pinstriped. This trip suits him better and he is 4/6 second up so that Memsie form looks like being reversed now.

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It is another solid book of rides for the 28-year-old at Flemington on Saturday. There are some solid prices with the horse racing bookmakers and a couple of winners would not be a surprise on the afternoon. Kah rode more winners at Flemington last season than any other track so she is always of interest here.  
 
R1 - #4 - Nadal - $4.40 
R3 - #1 - Drifting - $3.60 
R4 - #8 - King Of Roseau - $19.00 
R5 - #8 - Point King - $3.60 
R6 - #15 - Promises Kept - $11.00 
R7 - #3 - See You In Heaven - $5.50 
R9 - #5 - Spacewalk - $8.50 

We kick off the multi tip with a short one who it would be rather disappointing if they didn’t win, let alone placed. Roughies are always the trickiest leg to get placed, arriving in the middle of this week’s bet. We close out with one who has been rather overlooked in the market given what she is capable of. 

R4 - #1 - Growing Empire - PLC $1.22 
R6 - #13 - Devoted - PLC $4.40 
R8 - #6 - Pride Of Jenni - PLC $1.85 

Total Odds = $9.93
$50 Stake = $496.54 Return!

Odds are provided by bet365, sign up for a new account here to get started.

Flemington Racecourse Trifecta Tip (R8) 
 
1st: 1, 2, 6, 8 
2nd: 1, 2, 6, 8 
3rd: 1, 2, 6, 8 

$50 stake = 208% flexi