Saturday Racing Tips Randwick 14/12/24

We have a huge roughie going in the Ingram this weekend. It is a wide-open Group 2 with plenty who can be given a strong chance of landing the money. As such, we are going to go left field to take on the betting sites with a $41 shot that steps up in class but has an awful lot in his favour despite the huge odds on offer. Let’s dive into these three tips.

(Note: Odds provided by bet365)

Best of the Day

Randwick Race 3 -

#4 Redbreast

Win: $2.40
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Place: $1.28
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Next Best

Randwick Race 9 -

#5 Hedged

Win: $3.50
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Place: $1.75
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Roughie of the Day

Randwick Race 8 -

#19 Spangler

Win: $41.00
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Place: $11.00
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Randwick Race 3 - Bob Ingram AO Handicap (1600m)

Selections:
#4 Redbreast (BEST BET) - $2.40
#3 Pier Pressure - $7.50
#2 Dazzle Legend - $10.00
#1 Chica Mojito - $4.00

BEST BET - #4 Redbreast - (BEST BET)
Produced a battling win last time out, pulling it out of the fire late on after looking beaten for all money. She went to the lead but was headed 300m from the line, showing a great attitude and tenacity to get her head back in front where it matters. This is going to suit her better up to 1600m as it was when others started to sprint that she was caught flat-footed. A barrier in eight is wider than ideal for one who likes to go from the front but she is lightly raced. This will only be her sixth career start so there should be plenty more to come from her.

THE DANGER - #3 Pier Pressure
Only saluted once in her first 16 starts but she has got her head in front in her last two. They have come back on soft ground so some cut in the ground looks to be a help to her. She stays 1600m fine, even though that pair of wins have come over a hair shorter. Connections rated her highly enough to run in some far deeper races than this at the end of last season. The return to easier company has helped her and now full of confidence, she looks set to continue that run of form.

VALUE BET - #2 Dazzle Legend
Another who should arrive with some confidence having got his head back in front last time out. That was over this distance at Newcastle in a similar Bm78. This is arguably a slightly deeper race given it’s a Saturday in the city but he is more than capable of stepping up. He has been consistent over the last year in races at around this level. He is 2/2 at this distance and has a win and a third in two prior visits to Randwick so looks to have plenty in his favour.

Randwick Race 8 - The Ingham (1600m)

Selections:
#2 Gringotts - $4.00
#1 Private Eye - $9.00
#19 Spangler (ROUGHIE OF THE DAY) - $41.00
#9 Steparty - $19.00

BEST BET - #2 Gringotts - (BEST BET)
Has taken a couple of smart wins to the bank this season. The first of those was a Listed race over this track and distance before dominating a Group 3 at Kembla Grange from the front. There was a swathe of these behind him in that latter contest and while they are all better off at the weights, they still might not be able to turn that form around. He was able to get to the front from a wide barrier that day, drawn better here but in a race where he will face more competition for the lead.

THE DANGER - #1 Private Eye
Got given a forceful ride at Rosehill last time out to get his head back in front. At the age of seven, he has looked to lose a little bit of his natural speed so 1500m on soft ground helped him. He still has the natural class to contend at this level but he might need this distance now for him to show his very best. He has plenty of smart form at this track to his credit, including a win over this distance here. If he is in the same heart as he was last time out, he should be right in the mix.

VALUE BET - #19 Spangler
Won the Little Dance over this track and distance in November 2023 but did not make the track again until November of this year when a solid fifth in a Bm94 at Newcastle. That was over an insufficient 1300m so it is to his credit that he ran as well as he did. He has two wins and a third in a trio of second-up runs in his career so he improves plenty for getting a run under his belt. Two wins and a third from four visits to this track and only once out of the first three in six starts over 1600m, he has plenty of stats pointing his way. He is an enormous price given that!

Randwick Race 9 - Razor Sharp Handicap (1200m)

Selections:
#5 Hedged (NEXT BEST) - $3.50
#7 Pereille - $6.50
#4 Contemporary - $10.00
#3 Eagle Nest - $11.00

BEST BET - #5 Hedged - (BEST BET)
Placed in three of his five Listed or Group races, he has a first-time tongue tie fitted for this assignment which could just help him get his head in front. He enjoys getting his toe in, two wins from three starts on soft ground so conditions are going to suit. 1000m was on the short side for him on his first start of this prep but he was only beaten a length in that Group 3 contest. Up to 1200m here and down to Listed level, this looks like a great opportunity for him to get his head back in front.

THE DANGER - #7 Pereille
The first of two strong chances for the Godolphin team in this field. He has finished second in both prior runs over this track and distance, he comes alive when the ground is on the soft side. He has finished fourth and fifth in two starts this prep, uncharacteristically down the field by his high standards. In 18 starts prior to this season, he had four wins, nine seconds and three thirds. That is a remarkable record of hitting the frame. He should have enough in his favour here to add another strong effort to his record.

VALUE BET - #4 Contemporary
Nash Rawiller gets on really well with this son of Exceed And Excel. When they have teamed up, they have three wins and two seconds in five starts. He is yet to finish out of the frame in four runs over this track and distance so it would be a surprise if he were to do so here. He goes on any ground and should come on for his return to action over 1100m at Rosehill. The extra 100m here is a big plus for him. A frame performance here will please connections as it will be his next start when he makes the most appeal. He has three wins in five third-up starts so put him in the black book for next time.

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