Saturday Racing Tips Caulfield 18/11/23

The betting industry in Victoria is set to say goodbye to Damien Oliver on Saturday as he takes his final rides. The Caulfield Guineas is the feature race of the day for three-year-old fillies, but that race looks like a challenging and competitive renewal, so we have left it along from a tip perspective. We still have three tips on the card, including a $21.00 roughie.

(Note: Odds provided by Bet365)

Best of the Day	Caulfield Race 10 #2 She Dances	Win: $2.60 Bet Now	Place: $1.30 Bet Now
Next Best	Caulfield Race 6 #1 Arkansaw Kid	Win: $2.70 Bet Now	Place: $1.44 Bet Now
Roughie of the Day	Caulfield Race 8 #16 Wrote To Arataki	Win: $21.00 Bet Now	Place: $5.50 Bet Now

Caulfield Race 6 - Blue Sapphire Stakes (1400m)

Selections:
#1 Arkansaw Kid (NEXT BEST) - $2.70
#2 Brave Mead - $4.00
#3 Snapback - $7.00
#4 The Instructor - $6.50

BEST BET - #1 Arkansaw Kid
He travelled as well as anything in the Group 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes at Flemington two weeks back, lacking the finishing kick of some genuine Group 1 sprinters. Steps up to 1400m for the first time here and takes a step back down into Group 3 company. The level weights here suit him well - rated 92, and the second top-rated horse in the race is 81, so he has a lot in hand. 1400m will be the question mark that he has to answer, but he shapes as if it is well worth a try, and in this sort of company is the perfect time to do so.

THE DANGER - #2 Brave Mead
He finally got his head back in front two starts back, following a couple of very wide trips around The Valley. Given that they were both six-runner races, his supporters on those days will have felt aggrieved with the rides he was given. His win came over this track and distance, so there is a clear claim for his chances there, and while he looked to stay 1600m well enough last time, it is not a massive surprise to see him back at 1400m. He's second best in at the weights, but his big positive is that he has nothing to prove over this distance.

VALUE BET - #3 Snapback
He didn’t get his head in front until his sixth race, which was on a Heavy 8 track in a maiden. Dropped in the deep end just two weeks later in the Group 1 Golden Rose where he set the fractions before fading into 10th. He was only beaten a touch over three lengths that day, so it was a strong run, backing that up at Group 3 level last time out. He was third that day, a performance that entitles him to respect in the same grade of contest now.

Caulfield Race 8 - Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes Group 1 (1400m)

Selections:
#11 Magic Time - $4.20
#2 I Am Me - $8.50
#16 Wrote To Arataki (ROUGHIE OF THE DAY) - $21.00
#5 Skew Wiff - $19.00

BEST BET - #11 Magic Time
Last in action three weeks ago when third, only beaten 0.3l behind Espiona in a deep invitation race over this same 1400m trip. She sat a little closer to the speed that day than the two who beat her so that the run could be marked up. The winner had finished seventh in the Everest before that and has subsequently finished a close fourth to Imperatriz in the Champions Sprint. That is the level of performer that Magic Time has been taking on, with this looking a little easier race for the grade.

THE DANGER - #2 I Am Me
Super mare stretches out to 1400m for the second time in her career. The first came way back in October 2021 when, at the time, the distance looked too far for her. She has become a super 1200m performer since, winning six of her last nine starts. Two defeats came at the Group 1 level, one of those when runner-up to Imperatriz last time out, which is hardly an effort that can be used against her. In front of Bella Nipotina in the Sydney Stakes in mid-October, that form is just as smart - she just has to prove that she stays this distance.

VALUE BET - #16 Wrote To Arataki
Behind the front pair in this, there is not a lot separating those looking for the place money, so a roughie is the way to go to try and find the one to finish third. This mare was excellent from the front when taking out the Group 2 Tristar over this track and distance last time out. Trapped wide when third to Life Lessons and Princess Grace before that at Flemington, that form deserves a place in this race. This field will not be easy to dominate from the front, but there is plenty to like about her here.

Caulfield Race 10 - How Now Stakes Group 3 (1200m)

Selections:
#2 She Dances (BEST BET) - $2.60
#1 Queen Of The Ball - $3.50
#3 Rose Quartz - $5.50
#4 Unusual Culture - $15.00

BEST BET - #2 She Dances
Winner of the Northwood Plume over track and distance a month ago, she was in front of Rose Quartz on that occasion, having taken control of the race from an early stage. She did that again last time when dropped into a Listed race at The Valley in a time a hair quicker than Imperatriz produced over the same 1200m the following day. That sprinting star carried 2.5kg more than She Dances and didn’t have to work that hard, but it still gave some substance to the level of the run that this mare produced.

THE DANGER - #1 Queen Of The Ball
Things set up perfectly for her when she won the Group 3 Begonia Bell on her most recent start. She could sit off the pace that day and came through to win by a comfortable length. Things might not set up quite perfectly for her here, but her prior form this prep behind Sunshine In Paris, Espiona and Magic Time reads well at this Group 3 level. She will be the final ride in Melbourne for Damien Oliver, so she would likely raise the roof if she salutes.

VALUE BET - #3 Rose Quartz
She was comfortably beaten by Queen Of The Ball at Flemington last time out, but she had the worst of the draw on the straight course that day in barrier 1. Fourth, there, the first three home came from 11, 7 and 9 while the fifth and six came from 8 and 10, so it is to her credit that she got as close as she did. Only one other runner stayed on the far side of the track with her, and she finished 8th of the 11 runners. She may not have beaten Queen Of The Ball in any case, as that rival was impressive, but she warrants a close look here.

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Jockey Of The Day – Damien Oliver

On his final day of riding in Victoria, it is only fitting that we make Oliver our jockey of the day. There are short prices from the horse racing bookmakers in his final book of rides, so it could be that the stars are aligned to give him the sendoff he deserves. As long as he doesn’t beat our Best Bet in the final race!

R4 - #9 - Hearcomesthestar - $19.00
R5 - #1 - Indian Pacific - $34.00
R6 - #1 - Arkansaw Kid - $2.70
R7 - #12 - Vibrant Sun - $23.00
R8 - #1 - Vilana - $11.00
R9 - #3 - Brayden Star - $8.00
R10 - #1 - Queen Of The Ball - $3.50