Saturday Racing Tips - Caulfield 19/10/24

We have three selections on the Caulfield card on Saturday. They included a $20.00 roughie in the main race of the day, the Caulfield Cup. There are some other smart-looking group races on the card as well. We have a best bet and a next best to take on the betting sites with late on in the afternoon.

(Note: Odds provided by Playup)

Selections:
#6 Sans Doute (NEXT BEST) - $7.50
#1 Estriella - $3.50
#2 Spacewalk - $10.00
#8 Rey Magenrio - $3.70

BEST BET - #6 Sans Doute - (BEST BET)
The heavy ground would not have been in her favour when last in action at Flemington. She was third at The Valley prior to that, too far back around the sharp track to quite run down the leaders. This is a race that looks like mapping out perfectly for her. A stiffer course at the 1000m distance is going to be a big plus for her. Add to that the number of runners here who like to go from the front and she is going to get a strong pace to chase which has the potential to collapse in front of her late.

THE DANGER - #1 Estriella
One of many in here who likes to sit right on the pace early on. She has not been able to show up in Group 1 races in recent starts but neither has she been disgraced either. The draw in the innermost barrier is going to help her get to the front end without having to use up too much energy. It depends on how many of the other leaders push on outside her. The track helped plenty on the speed last week so it will be interesting to see how it rides now.

VALUE BET - #2 Spacewalk
Not seen in action since May but he has hit the frame in five of his six first-up starts. Won first time up last season and then was second in this race so connections will have had this contest in mind once more for him. Has a win, two second-place finishes and a third when racing over this 1000m distance in the past so there are no concerns about the trip. Capable on all ground so he should be right in the mix here.

Selections:
#4 Skybird (BEST BET) - $4.40
#2 Revolutionary Miss - $6.50
#9 Miss Aria - $7.50
#10 Running By - $9.50

BEST BET - #4 Skybird - (BEST BET)
The winner of four of her nine starts so far this season, behind both Revolutionary Miss and Miss Aria at Flemington last time out. They didn’t go very hard on that occasion but this should work out a little bit better for her in that regard. The same issues beset her the time before as well. Her best form has come when the ground has been good so she would not want to see much rain but she is third-up here and can improve past the pair who finished in front of her last time out.

THE DANGER - #2 Revolutionary Miss
Has gone close in both of her starts this season. She was in an inner barrier when winning the Group 2 Blazer at Flemington last time out. The two that re-oppose her here were both drawn much wider out so she might have to do a little bit more here if she is to get her head in front again. She is the one with the wide barrier on this occasion, drawn out in 11 now. That is going to make it a little more difficult for her to take quite such a good early sit here.

VALUE BET - #9 Miss Aria
Split the pair above last time out, a repeat of which is going to give her a leading chance once more. She is a touch better off at the weights here as well so it would not be the biggest shock if she were able to make them sweat. In action as late as July last season though gave her a bit of an advantage at Flemington. It was officially her second start of the season as well but she would not have had as much ring rust to knock off as the other pair. As such, third behind them might be the best that she can hope for on this occasion.

Selections:
#2 Buckaroo - $4.20
#7 Eliyass - $7.50
#10 Duke Of Sessa (ROUGHIE OF THE DAY) - $20.00
#13 Zardozi - $7.00

BEST BET - #2 Buckaroo
Has long been a solid performer but he has taken his form to a new level this season at the age of six. He was 0/8 at this Group 1 level before saluting in the Underwood Stakes and then showed that his breakthrough win was no fluke when running second to Via Sistina last time out in the Turnbull. That showed that he is capable at 2000m, though he is yet to get his head in front beyond 1800m. That said, he is staying stronger in his races this year and Joao Moreira should be able to bury him away in the pack. That can help conserve his stamina.

THE DANGER - #7 Eliyass
Outstanding gelding has won nine of his 12 career starts so far. That includes him being a perfect 3/3 when Tim Clark has been the man in the saddle. Finished third in the Turnbull last time out, one spot behind Buckaroo and one in front of Duke Of Sessa. That race looks like the best form guide into this contest which makes him one of the leading lights to claim the prize. Stays 2000m strongly but is yet to race beyond that distance in any of his career starts. Will need to settle better than he did first up if he is to win but a bigger field and getting cover just off the speed could allow him to stretch out to this distance with a measure of success.

VALUE BET - #10 Duke Of Sessa
Has finished behind Buckaroo in both the Underwood and Turnbull already this season but was not beaten so far on either occasion to think that the discrepancy in the odds is correct. Has gone from the front in both of those contests but has lacked the same turn of foot as the principles when he has been challenged late on. Up to 2400m is going to be a big plus for him as he has proven stamina over this far. The track was helpful enough to those on the pace last Saturday and if that is the case once more this week, he should run a huge race.

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Saturday will be an afternoon that Melham is looking forward to. He is on a few favourites with the horse racing bookmakers and will be looking to get a couple of winners on the board. He has three very strong chances as well as a few roughies that have a chance.

R1 - #1 - Sugar Coat - $3.20
R2 - #4 - Tarpaulin - $8.00
R3 - #6 - West Indies - $41.00
R5 - #4 - Penthouse - $21.00
R6 - #3 -Geegeez Mistruth - $4.20
R7 - #1 - Estriella - $3.50
R8 - #3 - Tiz Invincible - $23.00
R9 - #1 - Kalapour - $81.00

There are some solid prices on offer at Caulfield on Saturday. The Cup is one of the most competitive races of the season so it is well worth having a roughie here. Both the best bet and next best are slightly bigger than is often the case so it would be a great week to land the multitip!

R7 - #6 - Sans Doute - PLC $2.40
R8 - #4 - Skybird - PLC $1.85
R9 - #10 - Duke Of Sessa - PLC $5.50

Total Odds = $24.42
$50 Stake = $1221.00 Return!

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Caulfield Racecourse Trifecta Tip (R8)

1st: 2, 4, 9, 10
2nd: 2, 4, 9, 10
3rd: 2, 4, 9, 10
$50 stake = 208% flexi