Saturday Racing Tips - Flemington 20/07/24

It is a competitive card at Flemington on Saturday. We have taken a look over the racing on offer and come up with our three top picks on the card. Heavy ground is the order of the day and two of the three relish the wet and the other has shown no reason to think that he won’t cope. We have been watching the prices on the betting sites carefully and there have been supporters for our roughie so before we lose the price, let’s get going!

(Note: Odds provided by bet365)

Selections:
#3 Eugenius  - $8.00
#7 Great Maximus - $6.00 
#4 Freak Of Nature (ROUGHIE OF THE DAY) - $9.00 
#5 Lovazou - $6.00

BEST BET - #3 Eugenius 
Has been a touch unfortunate not to win two of his last three races. He was just touched off over this track and distance three starts back before coming out worst off in a battle of three to the line at Caulfield at the end of June. A repeat of those runs would put him right in the mix with the best of these, with the track and underfoot conditions posing him no problem. Has finished runner-up in two of his three prior Flemington starts and this could be the time that he breaks through with his first win here.  
 
DANGER - #7 Great Maximus 
Three wins from his first six career starts have come one on good, one on soft and one on heavy. That is a smart range for a young horse, especially one who is open to plenty more improvement. It will help connections as they will not have to worry about where to place him, knowing that he will act on any ground. His adaptability is even more impressive given that he has shown smart form when leading and when held up. This is a tougher field but he is well worth having a shot at them. 
 
VALUE BET - #4 Freak Of Nature 
Has been nibbled at in the early markets and it is easy to see why. He could hardly have been more impressive on the synthetic surface at Pakenham two starts back, thrashing his opponents by 4.5 lengths. He then made all the running on a heavy track at Sandown when never looking troubled. He has drawn the innermost barrier here which is ideal if connections want to send him to the front again and while this is going to take more winning, he looks the type to have better yet to come.  

Selections:
#6 Bazaqiel (BEST BET) - $3.00 
#9 Legio Ten - $5.50 
#15 South Of Houston - $5.50 
#13 Beour Bay - $15.00 

BEST BET - #6 Bazaqiel 
A perfect 4/4 so far in his career, he can keep that unbeaten record intact. This is going to be the deepest ground that he has tried so far but that is about the only knock that can be put on him. When he won three weeks ago at Caulfield, it was the first time that he had to really fight for it which is going to have taught him a lot. He passed that test with flying colours and runs in the same BM84 grade here. Impossible not to be impressed by his body of work so far and hard to think that connections have gotten anywhere close to the bottom of him yet.  
 
DANGER - #9 Legio Ten 
The Godolphin runner was second to Baraqiel last time out, the closest that any horse has got to that runner so far. He gets a two-and-a-half kilo pull at the weights for that run so strictly on that, he ought to be turning the tables but he has already got 16 runs in the book so is not the unexposed blank page that the best bet still is. He is going to run his usual honest race once more but even with the weights in his favour, he still looks to be coming off second best to one of the most rapidly progressive types in the country. 
 
VALUE BET - #15 South Of Houston 
Shaped well on her return to action at Caulfield despite the ground being on the quick side for her. She is yet to win in four starts when first up so that is easy enough to excuse. More interestingly, she is a perfect 2/2 when she has been second up in her career as she is here. That combined with being back on a surface with more juice in it makes her a very interesting runner. The knock is that she is a touch wide for one who likes to be on the speed which might make things a touch more difficult. 

Selections:
#3 Speycaster (NEXT BEST) - $3.40
#6 Taramansour - $3.60 
#7 Ferago - $8.00 
#5 Hit The Road Jack - $10.00 

BEST BET - #3 Speycaster 
Loves wet conditions, staying on powerfully to land the Stayers Cup at Rosehill last time. He has underfoot conditions to his liking again here, now trying this far for the first time. The way that he hit the line at Rosehill suggests that he might improve now stretched out a little further. Stamina certainly seems to be his main strength and this shapes like an ideal opportunity to prove it. He has two wins in three starts on heavy and he can build on that record. 
 
DANGER - #6 Taramansour 
Perhaps would prefer the ground a touch better than it is going to be here but he has been in solid form this prep. Two seconds and two thirds in his last four starts, he has been knocking on the door. Unlucky to run into one at this track on his most recent start who has taken off since joining Ciaron Maher. He was nicely in front of the third that day, with the form standing up well in a contest like this. If he handles his first attempt on heavy ground at the age of seven, he will be hard to keep out of the frame again. 
 
VALUE BET - #7 Ferago 
The most notable one in here with stamina proven for this 2800m test. He was runner-up over 3200m in the Listed Sandown Cup two starts back, a previous winner over that distance. There are two wins and four second-place efforts from eight starts on heavy so he has no problem when conditions are on the wet side. The knock on him is that he is yet to show his best in three prior starts at Flemington. Despite that, his credentials for this test are clear to see. 

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This is the first day back in the saddle for Jamie Kah since her excellent Queensland Carnival. She will be looking to come back with a bang and has a solid book of rides on which to do so. 14 winners at Flemington this season is her most at any track, with 10 runner-up efforts making it 30% of her rides that have finished first or second. The horse racing bookmakers have not taken too many chances with their odds on her rides. Expect her to return strong.  
 
R2 - #3 - Subrising - $4.40 
R3 - #12 - Just Like Gaby - $7.00 
R5 - #9 - Il Cubo - $26.00 
R6 - #15 - South Of Houston - $5.50 
R7 - #6 - Taramansour - $3.60 
R8 - #12 - Political Debate - $15.00 
R9 - #9 - Lady Di Di - $13.00 

It looks a good card on Saturday and we have some proven wet ground horses to make up our multi tip. That looks the way to go given the conditions which shape like it is going to be hard work. 

R5 - #4 - Freak Of Nature - PLC $3.25 
R6 - #6 - Baraqiel - PLC $1.65 
R7 - #3 - Speycaster - PLC $1.75 

Total Odds = $9.38
$50 Stake = $469.22 Return!

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Flemington Racecourse Trifecta Tip (R5) 
 
1st: 3, 4, 5, 7 

2nd: 3, 4, 5, 7 

3rd: 3, 4, 5, 7 

$50 stake = 208% flexi