Saturday Racing Tips Caulfield 21/09/24

It is always exciting to be on the betting sites at this time of the year as we head towards the biggest races of the spring. The Cox Plate is just five weeks away and the Melbourne Cup, just six and a half! It is the Underwood Stakes at Caulfield this weekend, a race that will see a new winner on the honours board after wins from Alligator Blood in 2022 and 2023. Our next best on the day comes in that contest.

(Note: Odds provided by PlayUp)

Best of the Day

Caulfield Race 5 -

#3 Another Wil

Win: $1.95
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Place: $1.22
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Next Best

Caulfield Race 8 -

#11 Place Du Carrousel

Win: $4.60
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Place: $1.85
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Roughie of the Day

Caulfield Race 6 -

#2 Itsourtime

Win: $12.00
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Place: $3.50
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Caulfield Race 5 - Testa Rossa Stakes (1400m)

Selections:
#3 Another Wil (BEST BET) - $1.95
#9 Craig - $5.50
#7 Jimmy the Bear - $8.00
#5 Light Infantry Man - $10.00

BEST BET - #3 Another Wil - (BEST BET)
One of the most progressive horses in training anywhere in the world. Connections were tempted to run him in the Group 1 Memsie on the first start of this prep. Instead, they raced him in a Bm100 on the same card at this track which he won with more in hand than the bare margin. His time was a second and a half slower than the major race but his impost was a kilo and a half more. Looks a star in the making and will have no issues stretching back out to 1600m here, with Jamie Kah 5/6 when she has had the ride in the past.

THE DANGER - #9 Craig
Another progressive type who has seen race action just six times so far in his career. The most recent of those was only a Bm 78 over 1400m at this track but he won it by two and a quarter lengths and it could have been more. This is a fair step up in class to a Listed race and he has to take on what looks like a genuine Group 1 horse in the selection. He might end up being a Group 1 type himself if he keeps going up the ranks as quickly as he is, however.

VALUE BET - #7 Jimmy The Bear
A much more experienced type than either of the above. It is easy to forgive his run in the Heatherlie last time out as he was sat too far back in a race that had very little pace to it. Before that, he was fifth in the Lawrence at this track behind a front three of Gentleman Roy, Pinstriped and Pericles. The runner-up won the Group 1 Memsie and the third won the So You Think. That is strong form for this level for all that he is yet to run better than third in a black-type contest.

Caulfield Race 6 - Tour d’Horse Sprint (1100m)

Selections:
#11 Commemorative - $4.00
#8 Jimmysstar - $4.80
#2 Itsourtime (ROUGHIE OF THE DAY) $12.00
#6 Chinny Boom - $4.00

BEST BET - #11 Commemorative
Trapped a little wide on her return to action in the Group 3 Toy Show, she can have that run marked up a touch. She still finished second there, only 0.36l behind the winner so arguably she would have won the race with a kinder path through. Seems to be turning into an 1100m specialist with two wins and a second from three starts over this distance. She will appreciate any rain that falls on Friday but the slight concern with her is that second up has not been the time to catch her so far. That is only very limited evidence, however, with just two runs.

THE DANGER - #8 Jimmysstar
A slightly frustrating type, he clearly has all the ability in the world and has won 50% of his races but there is still the suspicion that he probably should have won more. This distance is going to be on the short side for him but his first-up record of three wins and a second in four starts means that he has to be hugely respected on that alone. Blake Shinn is a perfect 2/2 on him so far and he won the only time he has run at this track. Despite the short trip, he is going to be right in the heart of things.

VALUE BET - #2 Itsourtime
A hard type to knock given his consistency, connections will be hoping that the forecast rain on Friday is not too bad. He can cope with soft ground but the very best of his form has come on good. He has three second-place finishes in six runs at this level and has been placed on seven of his nine visits to this track. A lack of pace was against him over 1200m at this track last time out but that should not happen with Jungle Jim in opposition. Others might hold stronger win claims but he will be hard to keep out of the frame.

Caulfield Race 8 - Underwood Stakes (1800m)

Selections:
#11 Place Du Carrousel (NEXT BEST) - $4.60
#2 Pericles - $3.10
#7 Fawkner Park - $7.50
#13 Coco Sun - $13.00

BEST BET - #11 Place Du Carrousel - (NEXT BET)
Cost Yulong a small fortune at the sales, having to go to more than 6.5 million dollars to pick her up. A lot of that value is going to be in the paddocks after racing but she can repay a slice of that by winning this Group 1 race. She was runner-up to Via Sistina in the Ranvet Stakes on her Australian debut but things didn’t drop right in her only subsequent run. The winner of the Group 1 Prix Diane when trained in France, she is a crack performer when fresh and that is a big plus.

THE DANGER - #2 Pericles
Has the fitness edge over the pick, already with two starts this prep under his belt. Just behind subsequent Memsie winner Pinstriped in the Lawrence, he went to The Valley and took out the So You Think in serious style. Those were over 1400m and 1500m, up to 1800m here. This is a distance that he has won over on his only try but has been kept to shorter since the autumn of 2023. Worth another crack at it, especially given the form that he has shown so far this season.

VALUE BET - #7 Fawkner Park
Really found his stride at the end of his last prep, third in the Doomben Cup before running riot in an Eagle Farm Group 2. Is down in distance for his return to action but that should not phase him too much. Would not want too much rain as he is 7/11 on good and 0/5 on soft although his Doomben Cup run came on the latter. Has a win and a third in four starts when first up so fresh should not be a concern for him. This is a stepping stone to bigger targets ahead over longer distances but he should give a good account of himself. 

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Jockey Of The Day – Joao Moreira

It is great to see the ‘Magic Man’ back in Australia for another stint in the saddle. While most of his rides on Saturday afternoon at Caulfield are only half chances, he does have the favourite for the opening race. The horse racing bookmakers might not be fearing him too much at those odds but Moreira has not come by his nickname by accident! 

R1 - #8 - Quantum Cat - $3.30
R3 - #7 - Anahita - $9.50
R4 - #6 - Declichy Boulevard - $11.00
R7 - #3 - Francesco Guardi - $15.00
R8 - #8 - Buckaroo - $5.50
R9 - #10 - Private Life - $6.50
R10 - #5 - Comrade Rosa - $13.00