Saturday Racing Tips Caulfield 21/10/23

The Caulfield Cup is one of the highlights of the spring, and the 2023 renewal is shaping up to be excellent.

Caulfield Cup Day is here, with it, another buzz of excitement across the online betting sphere. It is, without a doubt, one of the top racing days of the year, and the 2023 race looks fascinating, with some very smart types taking another step closer to a bid at the Melbourne Cup. We have three tips on the card.

(Note: Odds provided by Bet365)

Selections:
#1 The Instructor (NEXT BEST) - $4.00
#2 Brave Mead - $2.40
#5 Reprisal - $11.00
#3 Kaizad - $4.60

BEST BET - #1 The Instructor
He enjoyed a drop in class last time out, having taken on Group 3 and then Listed company on his first two starts of this prep. That race saw him taking on 1400m for the first time in his career, and it looked to produce his best effort, running away when asked to quicken to win stylishly. He likes to race close to the pace, and with that proven stamina now, he should be up to setting some strong fractions for the others to aim at. A repeat of his form at Group 3 level could see him very hard to claw back here.

THE DANGER - #2 Brave Mead
Has two solid runs this prep, both over 1200m at Moonee Valley. On each occasion, he was trapped wide from the outside barrier, which was not the place to be on that track. Shaped last time as if he is worth a try at this new distance, and from the inside barrier, this maps out a little different for him. That might be enough to get a better performance from him, but he does have to prove his stamina at the distance (for all that it looks like he will stay) against one who is already proven.

VALUE BET  - #5 Reprisal
He has just two runs in his career, winning the second of those, which came over 1200 at Moonee Valley. That was on a softer surface than he will race on here, but it is interesting to note that he was a drifter in the betting as if not much was expected of him on his first run in 142 days. He didn’t hit the front until late that day, so moving out to 1400m should suit, and there is a strong chance that he will strip fitter for that run. With so little experience, there should be plenty of natural progression to come for all that this is a much deeper race.

Selections:
#6 Spacewalk (BEST BET) - $2.50
#1 Lofty Strike - $3.00
#4 General Beau - $5.50
#2 Generation - $8.00

BEST BET - #6 Spacewalk
Four-year-old has done better since stepping down from 1200m, a fluent winner of a Benchmark 100 last time out at Warwick Farm. He was sent off a very short $1.45 favourite on that occasion but won as an odds-on shot should with plenty up his sleeve. This is a rise back in class, but he is entitled to come on for that first run of this prep, and he shaped as if there is better to come from him off the back of that. He represents powerful connections and can make his mark at this higher level.

THE DANGER - #1 Lofty Strike
The class act in the contest, he has been off since fourth in the Group 1 Goodwood in May. Eighth in the T J Smith before that, he has more than proven himself at the top table, so he should enjoy this easier company on this first-up run. He has won two of his three races when he has been fresh, so the lack of a recent run is no concern. The worry about his chance is that the step down to a bare 1000m does not look a positive. He has done some excellent work late over 1200m in those Group 1 races, so others might be a little sharper than him at the trip, especially from an impost of more than 5 kg more than any of his rivals.

VALUE BET  - #4 General Beau
He is not a regular winner these days, but he was keeping some fair company when last seen in August. Third, second and fourth in a trio of Group 3 races over slightly longer trips than this - that level of form entitles him to respect in this small field. He has won two of his three starts over 1000m at this track, which is another point of interest, but it is September 2021 since he last got his head in front, so he can’t be supported for win purposes.

Selections:
#2 Without A Fight - $7.50
#3 Breakup (ROUGHIE OF THE DAY) - $9.00
#1 Gold Trip - $5.50
#6 West Wind Blows - $7.00

BEST BET - #2 Without A Fight
He found his path blocked when looking for a way through in the Underwood on his first start of the prep, but he finished his race purposefully. A strong stayer when trained in Europe, including a win over almost 2800m, he has only once run beyond 2200 since arriving in Australia, and that was the Melbourne Cup last year. A very impressive winner at Eagle Farm in May and June, this prep will have been geared around this run and another crack at the Melbourne Cup. The return to 2400m is a massive plus for his chance, so seeing him come good would be no shock.

THE DANGER - #3 Breakup
The Japanese runner is a fascinating one, raiders from his homeland winning this race twice in the last decade. The most recent of those was partnered by Damian Lane, who has been given the ride on this gelding. It is never easy to measure just how strong form in other jurisdictions is, but given that Japanese raiders have been winning the big races all over the planet in the last couple of years, it’s a fair guess to say that he brings a very strong level to the table. He stays further than this, which is no bad thing in this contest, given that it is likely to be run at a proper pace from start to finish. If the gaps open late, he is a big player. 

VALUE BET  - #1 Gold Trip
The reigning Melbourne Cup champion does not get his head in front often, but when he does, it is in the biggest races. He was frankly spectacular when winning the Turnbull last time out. The 2000m that day was well short of his best trip, but the strong pace allowed him to travel strongly into the race before blazing clear in the last 200m. The rise in distance to 2400m here is a massive plus for him looking to back up his close second in this race in 2022. He has no issues with a quick return to action, and this big field should see the race run to suit him.

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A ride on Without A Fight in the Caulfield Cup is the highlight of the Saturday mounts for Zahra, but he has a couple of others that have strong claims to win as well, given the prices on the betting sites. It has been a frustrating season for Zahra at Caulfield, but this weekend could be the time for it all to come good for him.

R1 - #2 - Brave Mead - $2.40
R2 - #7 - To Be Frank - $23.00
R4 - #2 - Don Corleone - $4.20
R7 - #3 - Revolutionary Miss - $13.00
R9 - #2 - Without A Fight - $7.50

With a long straight and more galloping bends than most of the tracks in Australia, Caulfield is a fair track where the cream will often rise to the top. That is certainly our hope for Saturday with our multitip for the card looking to beat the horse racing bookmakers.

R1 - #1 - The Instructor - PLC $1.60
R6 - #6 - Spacewalk - PLC $1.50
R9 - #3 - Breakup - PLC $3.25

Total Odds = $8.32
$50 Stake = $416 Return!

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Caulfield Racecourse Trifecta Tip (R6)

1st: 1, 2, 4, 6
2nd: 1, 2, 4, 6
3rd: 1, 2, 4, 6
$50 stake = 208% Flexi