Saturday Racing Tips Flemington 22/06/24

Our tips are rather spread out across the nine-race card at Flemington on Saturday with our top bet racing in the first race of the day and our next best not out until race eight. They are split by a $19.00 roughie who would be overpriced if she can find the pick of her form again so we are hoping that the horse racing bookmakers have got it wrong with the odds and she can outrun them at the midway point of the afternoon. Although there is nothing of black type quality on the card, there is still a string of handicaps to enjoy.

(Note: Odds provided by bet365)

Best of the Day	Flemington Race 1 - #4 Sneaky Sunrise	Win: $2.60 Bet Now	Place: $1.50 Bet Now
Next Best	Flemington Race 8 - #1 Lady In Pink	Win: $5.00 Bet Now	Place: $2.15 Bet Now
Roughie of the Day	Flemington Race 5 - #5 Senegalia	Win: $19.00 Bet Now	Place: $4.20 Bet Now

Flemington Race 1 - King Cox Handicap (1420m)

Selections:
#4 Sneaky Sunrise (BEST BET) - $2.60
#1 Pisces - $4.80
#3 Henlein - $8.50
#5 Jenni’s Meadow - $15.00

BEST BET - #4 Sneaky Sunrise

Solid effort on debut when runner-up to a nice Godolphin colt who had already had a run. She got too far back in a Listed race at this track on her second start but the fact that she was tried at that level suggests that she is fairly well thought of. She would get revenge on the Godolphin runner when winning at this track last time out, showing the benefit of the previous experience to get her head in front. She looks capable of building on that now that she has her confidence up with any soft in the ground ideal for her. 

DANGER - #1 Pisces

A Godolphin runner will take on the best bet again, with James Cummings running this gelding. He has already had six starts so he might not have quite so much progression in the tank as the filly who has had half his racing but he has plenty of solid efforts to his credit. He likes to be on the pace so a barrier draw in 16 is not going to be any help to him. Has the ability to play a leading role if he can find a way across the field early on.

VALUE BET - #3 Henlein

Has only been seen once so far in race action, the market speaking positively for him ahead of that Bendigo contest, backed into $2.20 and duly obliged. Up 100m in distance here looks a plus on the performance that he put in visually that day and he coped fine with soft ground there so these conditions will be fine. Clearly, he has a bit to find against others who have produced stronger form but he has the most potential for progression. 

Flemington Race 5 - Country Achiever Shane Fliedner Quality (1100m)

Selections:
#2 Who Dares - $4.20
#9 Veloce Caro - $3.80
#5 Senegalia (ROUGHIE OF THE DAY) - $19.00
#3 Extremely Lucky - $4.40

BEST BET - #2 Who Dares

A little disappointing earlier in the prep but he was freshened up after February and has returned with a pair of wins, the latter of those in a Listed race over 1200m at this track. He went from the front on that occasion, showing plenty of speed so the slightly shorter distance here should not be an issue for him and he has won on all ground types so connections will not have any worry about what the weather does. Patrick Moloney has taken over on him and is a perfect 2/2 in those wins.

DANGER - #9 Veloce Caro

Has been brought along slowly by connections, gradually climbing his way up the handicap ranks. Both starts this prep have been winning efforts at this track so he clearly has a liking for this straight course, the first over 1100m and the second at 1200m. Does have a win on heavy but the pick of his form has come on good ground so will be looking for the weather to be kind to his chances. His draw in the middle of the field looks perfect for one who likes to be covered up and retains plenty of potential for better to come.

VALUE BET - #5 Senegalia

 Enjoys her racing at this track, three wins in five runs over 1100m at Flemington. The most recent of those was at the end of March when she was produced with a perfectly timed run. She should get this run to suit with the favourite liking to get on with things on the front end and that can help to set things up for her strong finish. Things have not quite dropped right on the last two occasions when she has been undone by slow starts so that is something that Celine Gaudray will have to keep in mind. 

Flemington Race 8 - Brian Beattie Handicap (2000m)

Selections:
#1 Lady In Pink (NEXT BEST) - $5.00
#6 Steel Run - $5.00
#11 Burlington Gate - $10.00
#5 Eliud - $5.50

BEST BET - #1 Lady In Pink

Has really found her stride of late, producing the best run of her career when saluting over this track and distance last time out. That was her first try at 2000m and she relished the test of stamina, able to sit three wide without cover and still fight off the challengers after she hit the front inside the 300m mark. It is easy to think that there is the potential for more to come from her when she gets a kinder transit through a race over this distance and she should be able to get a touch more cover from a middle barrier here. 

DANGER - #6 Steel Run

Two lengths behind Lady In Pink last time out, things did not go his way on that occasion. From a wide barrier, he was taken back in the field and ended up too far back to make a meaningful impression. He has an even tougher barrier here in 17 so it will be interesting to see how forceful Ethan Brown is through the opening couple of hundred metres on this occasion. The gelding has only had three career starts so he has to rate a danger.

VALUE BET - #11 Burlington Gate

Another who was behind Lady In Pink last time out, he did not get the cleanest of runs up the straight so that can be marked up as well as the other two above. Even without winning, it was right up there with the best efforts in his career given his win the time before was in a Benchmark 64. It might not be the easiest to get more luck in running in a similarly big field but there is the ability there for him to be a big player if he can.

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Jockey Of The Day – Daniel Stackhouse

In the last year, Stackhouse has a 14% strike rate when he has ridden at Flemington for an ROI of +27. His seven rides on the card on Saturday range from favourites to roughies with the betting sites but he is always a jockey that needs to be taken seriously when he rides at the track. He has had a good week with four winners in 14 rides ahead of Geelong on Friday, including a pair of winners at Sandown on Saturday. 

R1 - #4 - Sneaky Sunrise - $2.60
R2 - #7 - Hit The Road Jack - $51.00
R3 - #9 - Ideelistic - $34.00
R6 - #11 - Prince Of Helena - $23.00
R7 - #3 - Rheinberg - $3.00
R8 - #14 - Boga Legend - $12.00
R9 - #10 - Prinzerro - $12.00