Saturday Racing Tips - Rosehill 23/09/23

The Group 1 Golden Rose stands out as the top action on Saturday at Rosehill. We have a tip for that contest.

Another Saturday, another Group 1 for us all in the betting industry to enjoy. This weekend, we head to Rosehill Gardens for the Golden Rose, a 1400m contest confined to the three-year-old generation. 

It is a deep field for the 2023 renewal and looks like a race that will produce many more winners through the spring in future Group 1 contests. There are also a pair of Group 2 races, a Group 3 and a Listed race as part of the ten on the afternoon.

(Note: Odds provided by Bet365)

Selections:
#4 Ozzmosis  - $2.30
#8 Royal Tribute- $3.00
#1 Barber (ROUGHIE OF THE DAY) - $9.00
#5 Celestial Legend - $6.00

BEST BET - #4 Ozzmosis
Seen just twice in race action so far, that pair of starts just two and a half weeks apart at Gosford and Randwick. They were both on slightly softer ground than he will encounter here, and this is a deeper race for him to handle first up this prep. That said, he is a blank page at this stage of his career, so he should have a lot more to come as he matures. He was in front of Royal Tribute in the second of those that rival opposing here again. 

THE DANGER - #8 Royal Tribute
He was a little over a length behind Ozzmosis on his debut when carrying a kilo less than that rival. They are off levels here, but this colt was too keen on that occasion, and it was his debut, so even though he is worse off at the weights, there should be very little in them. He also has the advantage of having had a run already this prep, winning a Hawkesbury maiden impressively. He is another who has only had two races in his life, so there will be lots more to come from him.

VALUE BET  - #1 Barber
He is much more exposed than the other pair mentioned in this race, given that he has already had six starts. He has won in three of those, with his two heavy defeats coming when he has taken on Group 1 company. He did not have the kindest barriers to work from in each of those, so they are easy enough to excuse given a race of this nature compared to those fields. He last ran in April but is 2/2 when first up, so fresh could be a good time to catch him. He has been scratched a couple of times of late, but whether those were with niggles or connections were waiting for the right race, only time will tell.

Selections:
#7 Waterford (BEST BET) - $3.20
#3 Cepheus - $4.80
#10 Williamsburg - $10.00
#1 Kirwan’s Lane - $8.50

BEST BET - #7 Waterford
He was in front of a couple who are in this field when making his first start of this prep. That came over the 1300m trip at this course, doing all his best work late to grab third in the Group 2 Theo Marks Stakes. The return to this trip will be a big plus for him, with some solid form already over this 1500m track. He was runner-up in the Group 2 Ajax Stakes in March, behind Cepheus on that occasion, but he has a massive 3kg swing at the weights for a length and a half defeat. He also came from much further back than the others in the frame that day, so he is taken to reverse the form.  

THE DANGER - #3 Cepheus
As mentioned, Cepheus already has a Group 2 win over this track and distance. For all that he is much worse off at these weights with the runner-up, the win entitles him to a massive amount of respect as it was his career-best effort. He can be excused his return to action at Eagle Farm when he was in front, facing a headwind with a huge impost. This should map out a little better for him, and back around here, he looks set to run a big race.

VALUE BET  - #10 Williamsburg
He finished in front of Cepheus at Eagle Farm but did not have to face the breeze on that occasion, so he had a much easier time of things than that rival. He would also prefer the ground to be a little softer than he will encounter, but there is some solid form on good ground that would give him a chance. He ran third in the Group 1 Rosehill Guineas in March over 2000m on good 4, so he is not entirely dependent on it being soft. Should be in the mix for a place here.

Selections:
#3 Cylinder (NEXT BEST) - $4.20
#4 King Colorado- $6.50
#2 Shinzo - $5.50
#13 Charm Stone - $5.50

BEST BET - #3 Cylinder
He won the Run For The Rose over 1200m last time. He had to wait a long time for a gap to open up for him that day, but once it did, he had the courage to sneak through and the tenacity to run down the leaders in the shadow of the post. The extra 200m should help him on that evidence, and for all that, he will need plenty of luck in running once more - the fact that his wins have only come by small margins seems to have left him somewhat underestimated by some of the bookmakers.  

THE DANGER - #4 King Colorado
He was not knocked about in the Group 1 Winx Stakes when it was clear that a gap would not open up in time for him. It was still a smart effort against older horses first up, and he can have that run marked up significantly, given how poor a passage he had through the contest. There was plenty of promise in that run, especially as he returns to run against his own age group in this Group 1. He saluted in the Group 1 J J Atkins back in June - if he finds a clear passage and can produce that level of form again, he will be a big player. 

VALUE BET  - #2 Shinzo
He has not been seen in race action since winning the Golden Slipper at this track in March. On that occasion, he was in front of Cylinder, a form line that gives him clear claims to landing this prize on his return to the track. Ryan Moore was in the saddle on that occasion - the crack UK star booked again on Saturday, one of four rides that Moore has on the card. The weakest run in his first preparation was first up, a slight concern being put straight back into Group 1 action here.

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It was more than three years since Ryan Moore had last set foot on Australian soil to ride when he won the Golden Slipper on Shinzo at this track in March. One of the top jockeys in the world, he celebrated his 40th birthday earlier in the week and what better way to celebrate than with some Rosehill winners on Saturday? The horse racing bookmakers have not taken any chances with the prices, such is the regard in which he is held.

R3 - #5 - Mr Waterville - $16.00
R5 - #2 - Desert Icon - $6.50
R6 - #3 - Zougotcha - $3.20
R8 - #2 - Shinzo - $5.50

We have looked to stick to the better quality races on offer at Rosehill on Saturday, where we hope that the form will hold up a little better than is the case sometimes in handicaps. There is a run of more than 400m from the home turn to the winning line, so runners can win from behind if the fractions are too strong on the lead.

R4 - #1 - Barber - PLC $2.25
R7 - #7 - Waterford - PLC $1.60
R8 - #3 - Cylinder  - PLC $1.90

Total Odds = $6.84
$50 Stake = $342 Return!

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Rosehill Racecourse Trifecta Tip (R4)

1st: 1, 4, 5, 8
2nd: 1, 4, 5, 8
3rd: 1, 4, 5, 8
$50 stake = 208% Flexi