Saturday Racing Tips - Randwick 24/08/24

We have made it through one of the more difficult times of year and we are ready to see the stars back on track. The Winx Stakes does not always have the strongest field but the 2024 renewal is bucking that trend. This is a genuine Group 1 field to start the season in the strongest possible way with eight of the 12 runners already boasting at least one Group 1 win in their career. The betting sites have a Chris Waller star as the favourite and it is easy to see why. 

(Note: Odds provided by bet365)

Selections:
#1 Manaal (NEXT BEST) - $2.90
#4 Ameena - $5.50 
#2 Erno’s Cube - $8.00 
#9 Zeitung - $7.00 

BEST BET - #1 Manaal 
The winner of three of her first six career starts, she has a bundle in hand at these weights over her opponents. She has won over 1000m on good, 1200m on soft and 1400m on heavy. There is almost nothing that can be thrown her way in terms of weather conditions or distance that she cannot handle. She was pitched straight into the Group 3 Gimcrack at this track on her debut, winning that and then second after an 18 week layoff on her second start with only Golden Sipper winner Lady Of Camelot beating her. Fresh is clearly no concern, nor ground nor trip. She looks very hard to beat. 
 
DANGER - #4 Ameena 
Won the first two starts of her career before stepping up on that in Group 3 company when second. Things did not go her way at all when she was pitched into a Group 2 the last time that she was seen when behind Erno’s Cube. She was slow away that day and, raced keenly, found trouble and had a kilo of overweight on her back. That all makes it a run that is very easy to forgive her. Has only ever raced on good but trialled well on heavy. 
 
VALUE BET - #2 Erno’s Cube 
Third in the Group 2 Percy Sykes in the middle of April when last in race action. She was behind Lady Of Camelot that day, getting closer than Manaal did but she was receiving 2kg from that rival whereas Manaal was having to give her 3kg. Erno’s Cube only gets 1kg from Manaal here which suggests that she is going to have her work cut out if she is to beat that rival using Lady Of Camelot as a form guide. That said, it is hard to envision her finishing out of the frame. 

Selections:
#6 Fangirl (BEST BET) - $2.30 
#9 Zougotcha - $9.00 
#11 Tropical Squall - $9.00 
#7 Via Sistina - $6.50 

BEST BET - #6 Fangirl 
When she gets things right, she is one of the top mares in the whole of Australia. She has three wins in her seven first up starts as well as three wins in six starts over this track and distance. A different filly when J-Mac gets the ride on her, she has won five of the seven races that they have been a partnership in. First up last season was one of her best performance and with conditions and distance to suit, she can kick off the new season with another Group 1 win. 
 
DANGER - #9 Zougotcha 
Wouldn’t want to see the ground dry out too much for her chance but as long as there is a little bit of juice in the ground, she will be fine. She has already got three Group 1 wins to her name from just five runs in the grade and has three wins from five runs when first up. A perfect 3/3 in her autumn prep, she is a big player if she is able to reproduce that form. She had James McDoncald in the saddle for each of those wins however and he is on Fangirl in this one.  
 
VALUE BET - #11 Tropical Squall 
Although she has been drawn out wide in barrier 11, she should be able to cross and pick up the lead easily enough.That could be the only thing that undoes the chance of Fangirl who needs a strong pace to aim at. This filly might be able to get a relatively soft time of things on the front and if she is able to dominate the early fractions to her liking under Adam Hyeronimus then she is going to be very hard to keep out of the frame. 

Selections:
#10 The Black Cloud - $3.60 
#1 Lady Laguna - $9.00 
#5 Aureus Angel (ROUGHIE OF THE DAY) - $29.00 
#11 Commemorative - $3.20 

BEST BET - #10 The Black Cloud 
One of the most progressive sprinters in training in the autumn, it is interesting to see her take this step up in class for Joseph Pride and Proven Thoroughbreds. From a visual point of view, she looks well up to this sort of level but this is the first chance that she has had to prove it. She likes to be on the speed so she has got the perfect barrier draw in one and there is not a huge amount of pace pressure for her. This should map our perfectly and make her a leading player. 
 
DANGER - #1 Lady Laguna 
Has to give away chunks of weight all around but that is because she is a the clear class act in this contest. Won the Group 1 Canterbury Stakes at this track over 1300m back in March where she had the likes of Think About It and Espiona behind her. That run reads incredibly well at this Group 3 level and she has enough form on all ground to not worry about what the weather does. It is only the impost that is the question mark here. She gives 5kg to Opal Ridge who is the second top weight and then 7kg or more to all of her other rivals. It will take a strong performance from her to give all that weight away.   
 
VALUE BET - #5 Aureus Angel 
Fresh is always the best time to catch this mare, three times a winner plus a second in five first up runs. She has very few miles on the clock for one of her age and is fine on both good and soft ground. Has a win and a second from three runs over 1100m and should find this easier than running in a Group 2 to close out her last prep. She won a Listed race in her opening race of the autumn and while this is a little tougher, she looks massively overpriced given her record fresh.

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As is so often the case, J-Mac has a seriously strong book of rides on a major Saturday afternoon. Not only does he have the top ride on the Group 1 favourite, he has a string of other mounts that are $6.00 or shorter with the horse racing bookmakers. It would be almost inconceivable for him to go home from Randwick without at least one winner in his pocket. 
 
R1 - #4 - Smashing Eagle - $4.20 
R2 - #5 - Kureder - $4.60 
R3 - #16 - Kreon - $2.40 
R5 - #2 - Cleveland - $21.00 
R6 - #4 - Ameena - $5.50 
R7 - #8 - Jolistar - $3.40 
R8 - #6 - Fangirl - $2.15 
R10 - #3 - Panic - $6.00 

It would be something of a shock if our first two legs on Saturday are not at least placed in their respective races at Randwick. It could all be on the odds boosting roughie leg to try and close things out with a win late on the card. 

R6 - #1 - Manaal - PLC $1.60 
R8 - #6 - Fangirl - PLC $1.40 
R9 - #5 - Aureus Angel - PLC $5.50 

Total Odds = $12.32
$50 Stake = $616 Return!

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Randwick Racecourse Trifecta Tip (R6) 
 
1st: 1, 2, 4, 9 
2nd: 1, 2, 4, 9 
3rd: 1, 2, 4, 9 
$50 stake = 208% flexi