Saturday Racing Tips Cranbourne 25/11/23

Cranbourne Cup Day is one of the country racing calendar's biggest afternoons, with 2023 looking like a cracker.

Although it is only officially a Listed race, the Cranbourne Cup carries prize money of $500,000 and is always a strong contest that creates plenty of discussion on horse racing betting sites. We have our £16.00 Roughie in the big race of the day, and there is also a strong supporting card with some quality handicaps, including a classy three-year-old race to open the card. 

(Note: Odds provided by Bet365)

Selections:
#1 Warmonger (NEXT BEST) - $2.30 
#2 Sentimental Flame - $5.50
#3 Unquestionably - $4.80
#4 Hydrogen Power - $6.00

BEST BET - #1 Warmonger
He has to give away lumps of weight all around here, but he has looked all class so far in his short racing career. It was a smart win from him on Melbourne Cup day, quickening up well from a slow pace to get his head in front at the perfect time in the Listed Batman Stakes. This looks like a softer contest, with none of these rivals rated remotely close to his ability level, hence having to give away so much weight. He shapes like the extra distance won’t hurt him, and on only his fourth start, plenty of improvement should come from him.

THE DANGER - #2 Sentimental Flame
Solid effort when third in a Listed race last time out, the contest winner adding to that form when third in the Group 2 Vase at The Valley behind Apulia and Verdad. That is strong form for this level. She is up further on a trip now, which could suit her. That most recent start saw the first two kick away from her late on, only able to keep going at the one pace herself. Less speed in here and more required in the way of stamina could see her improve again.

VALUE BET  - #3 Unquestionably
He cost a small fortune but has started to repay that quickly in his first two starts. He got up late, over 1900m at Gosford, shaping as if further still suits him in time, given some extra distance here. That maiden win was a good step up on his third-placed finish on debut, but he is still some way short of the level of opposition he will have to take on now. He does have an upward profile, though, so he should not be written off given a stiffer stamina test.

Selections:
#2 King’s Crossing (BEST BET) - $3.80 
#1 Wertheimer - $7.00
#3 Yellowbrick Road  - $6.00
#5 Chihuly - $6.50

BEST BET - #2 King’s Crossing
He won a similar race at Geelong last time out, having stripped fitter for his first up effort this preparation at Flemington. He has won on softer ground and has plenty of form over this kind of trip, so there are no stamina concerns. Damian Lane has the mount with some of this gelding’s best form coming when Lane has been in the saddle. The race should map out well for him, and with no stronger opponents to take on than last time, he can pick up another win.

THE DANGER - #1 Wertheimer
Has been keeping good company on the Cup circuit and back down in a lesser grade for this next assignment. He has never really looked like getting his head in front in that sort of company, but they were still efforts that entitle him to be the main danger to our Best Bet. The pick of those came when second in the Murtoa Cup, which came on a Soft 5 surface, so the forecast rain could help him. There is plenty to like about his profile as it is but the more rain that falls, the better his chance will be so has to be the exacta pick.

VALUE BET  - #3 Yellowbrick Road
It was only a Bm58 that he won at Bendigo on his first start of this preparation, but he has stepped up on that level of form the last twice to finish placed in the Mortlake and Ararat Cups. He was a little too keen when last tried over this distance, but that was a year ago, and he has matured in his racing style. Recent runs have suggested that he is worth another try over this type of distance and could even produce some improvement from him in the process. 

Selections:
#9 Foxy Cleopatra - $4.20 
#2 Just Folk - $7.00
#7 Lord Vladivostok (ROUGHIE OF THE DAY) - $16.00
#4 Ascension - $7.00

BEST BET - #9 Foxy Cleopatra
She has not stood much racing in her career but was a close-up second on her return to action in the Group 3 HKJ Club Stakes at Flemington earlier this month. That was her first race since November 2022, so even though it was a strong run, she is still entitled to step up and stretch her legs. She was sent off at just $9.50 in the Group 1 VRC Oaks on that prior run, so she is well thought of, and this looks like a good opportunity for her to add a second win to her career tally.

THE DANGER - #2 Just Folk
The veteran has only had two starts since joining the stable of Gavin Bedggood. He produced a huge effort when fourth in the Group 2 Crystal Mile at The Valley at the end of October. Good 4 ground there will have been quick enough for him - he will be well suited if the forecast rain hits Cranbourne. He has won three of his five starts on heavy and has finished first or second in eight of his 11 starts on soft, so the more it rains, the stronger his chance. 

VALUE BET  - #7 Lord Vladivostok
A little disappointing in a Listed race at Flemington when last seen, that below-par effort was a bit of a surprise given that he had been backed into a $3.70 chance. His form prior in this preparation is a better gauge of his ability, beaten less than two lengths in the Group 2 Damien Oliver over 1400m. He had no luck in-running that day, so that can be upgraded. Although 1600m is probably still a touch on the short side for him, he can take a prime position just off the pace on the inside from his barrier in two, which can help him make the frame.

Are you looking to place a bet this Saturday? Check out our best betting sites in Australia to discover the best bookmakers to enjoy a bet with our expert tips, with simple sign-ups for each site on offer.

Bet365 is our top bookmaker for our horse racing tips this week. They are one of the biggest bookmakers in the world and have an assortment of markets that most bookmakers could only dream about. One of the most significant advantages of betting with bet365 is watching a live stream of all the action. It is hard to compete with their level of sport shown live. As a company born in the UK, it is no surprise that you can bet on all of the horse racing across Europe and America and all of the Australian action. There are always boosts and special offers to take advantage of, as well as offering prices that match up well with their competitors. 

Join us each Saturday for the best expert bets on Australian horse racing. Every week we will preview one of the big Saturday cards to provide you with the best tips, including a best bet, a next bet and a roughie of the day for those who enjoy a long shot.

We will also have news articles each week with need-to-know info. We will tell you about any bonuses and promotions you can take advantage of with your betting and get our multi-tips and jockeys to follow.

If you need more help or explanations on anything horse racing related, check out our horse racing betting sites page, where you can find bet types, strategies and FAQs, amongst other helpful information.
   

With 70 Group 1 winners from a haul of 2100 career winners in Australia alone, there are few more capable hoops out there than Craig Williams. He has a strong book of rides on Saturday with the betting sites' prices, suggesting he will be an excellent rider to follow in the afternoon. Williams has 99 career winners at Cranbourne, looking set to bring up triple figures on their big card.

R2 - #4 - Holy Racket - $23.00
R3 - #6 - Climbing Star - $4.60
R5 - #13 - Pink Beau Ty - $9.00
R6 - #14 - Russian Benefits - $31.00
R7 - #9 - Fire Glo Too - $6.50
R8 - #2 - Generation  - $5.50
R9 - #9 - Foxy Cleopatra - $4.20
R10 - #5 - Jimmysstar - $2.70

With the final 600m at Cranbourne all uphill, it is a track where the pace of the race is all-important. Front runners can win given a soft lead and fractions, but closers can produce dividends from the horse racing bookmakers if they go too hard on the front.

R1 - #1 - Warmonger - PLC$1.80
R4 - #2 - King’s Crossing - PLC$1.30
R9 - #7 - Lord Vladivostok - PLC$4.00

Total Odds = $9.36
$50 Stake = $468 Return!

Odds are provided by Bet365, sign up for a new account here to get started.

There are a lot of exotic tips to enjoy in horse racing. If you don’t know how they work or need to brush up on your knowledge of them, check out our information page.

Cranbourne Racecourse Trifecta Tip (R1)

1st: 1, 2, 3, 4
2nd: 1, 2, 3, 4
3rd: 1, 2, 3, 4
$50 stake = 208% Flexi