Saturday Racing Tips - The Valley 26/10/24

There are very few races in the calendar anywhere in the world that the betting sites revere more than the Cox Plate. 2015-2018 saw four consecutive wins from Winx to add her to the pantheon of all-time greats. Last year the race was won by a raider from Hong Kong. It is a runner that has formlines with the 2023 winner Romantic Warrior who is favourite this year. We have three tips on the card, including our best of the day in the Cox Plate itself.

(Note: Odds provided by bet365)

Selections:
#4 Kingswood - $2.20
#5 Second To Nun - $5.00
#2 Smokin Romans (ROUGHIE OF THE DAY) - $12.00
#1 Future History - $5.50

BEST BET - #4 Kingswood
Only saluted in one of his first nine races but the penny has dropped, arriving here looking for a hat-trick of wins. The move to the stable of Gavin Bedggood has done him some good and the step back up in distance has helped. His pedigree has plenty of stamina in it and he has stretched right away from his fields in two races for his new surroundings. Last time out was a Group 3 at Caulfield, in that same company again here.

THE DANGER - #5 Second To Nun
Things have not really gone her way this season with race shapes against her. They have all been over shorter distances than this one so the return to the extra length will help. She had a very successful start to 2024 when she was ridden right on the speed, held up so far in her starts this season. Surely around The Valley, they will put her back on the pace again which is going to see her in a much better light.

VALUE BET - #2 Smokin Romans
The veteran has two wins and a second in five previous visits to this track. He was spelled for 10 weeks after an abjectly poor run at this track in August after which no problems could be found. Shaped better on his return at Caulfield in a race that didn’t really suit as it turned into a dash for home off a steady pace. Likes to be close to the speed and second up is a time when he can outrun his price.

Selections:
#2 Oscar’s Fortune (NEXT BEST) - $3.20
#8 Baraqiel - $4.20
#3 Mornington Glory - $5.50
#5 I Am Unstoppable - $4.80

BEST BET - #2 Oscar’s Fortune - (NEXT BEST)
His runner-up effort in the Schillaci Stakes at Caulfield last time out is a stronger run than perhaps that looks on paper. In a nine-runner field, he was the only one of the first four past the post who sat close to the speed. The winner was seventh early on, the third-placed runner was ninth and the fourth sat in sixth. It is well worth upgrading that run given that the shape of the race went against him. This track favours those who are close to the speed so should suit him much better at the longer distance.

THE DANGER - #8 Baraqiel
Has a little bit on at the weights given his rating compared to a few of these but he has so few miles on the clock for his age. Last season he was one of the fastest progressing sprinters in the country. He didn’t even make his race debut until May 5, rewarding connections for their patience. Both of his defeats have come on a Soft 7 surface, a perfect 3/3 when the ground is good. He won at this track last time out so he has that experience under his belt. Connections would not be running him here if they did not think that he was up to this class.

VALUE BET - #3 Mornington Glory
Behind Oscar’s Fortune in the Schillaci but he has the course experience over that rival. He has raced at The Valley on five occasions in the past, winning four of them. Three of those have been this season, progressing through the ranks to win the Group 1 Moir Stakes in early September. That is the strongest effort of his career so far which came over the 1000m distance. Up to 1200m now asks a different question of him but the return to this track looks sure to suit.

Selections:
#2 Prognosis (BEST BET) - $3.40
#6 Pride Of Jenni - $4.60
#7 Via Sistina - $4.40
#8 Broadsiding - $7.00

BEST BET - 2 Prognosis - (BEST BET)
A fascinating Japanese raider and one who brings form at the highest level to the party. A prep run in Australia would have been preferred as we all remember how much Romantic Warrior improved last year for having the experience of the different way that things are done here. Speaking of Romantic Warrior, this horse probably should have beaten him in the QEII Cup at Sha Tin in April. Damian Lane was the hoop of choice when Lys De Gracieux won the Cox Plate for Japan in 2019. His call up for another raider from the same country suggests that they think this horse is capable of following in her hoofprints.

THE DANGER - #6 Pride Of Jenni
It was only a four-runner race that she won here in the Feehan two starts back but it will have given her a feel for this track again. The sharp turns favouring the speed really should make this a location where she excels. As she showed last season in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Randwick, even over 2000m, when she gets on the front end setting fractions that suit her best, she is a very hard horse to get past. There are others in here who have led in the past but they surely can’t take her on early for fear of ruining their own race. Is the danger here as she should get the run of the race around a track where it’s hard to make ground off the pace.

VALUE BET - #7 Via Sistina
Things did not go right for her at Breakfast with the Best earlier in the week when she lost James McDonald and galloped riderless around The Valley three times. At least she knows the track well now and understands the unique layout and tight bends! Her only below-par run this season came on very heavy going so is easy to forgive. Two wins in the Winx and Turnbull showed her class and determination at the highest level. The form of the Turnbull has been boosted with the fourth Duke Of Sessa beating the runner-up Buckaroo in the Caulfield Cup last weekend. This will be well run which suits her perfectly.

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There can only be one pick this week as Lane is on both our best bet and next best on the card. Eight rides include a number of other chances that are towards the head of the betting with the horse racing bookmakers. It should be a good day for Lane and if it is, it should be a good day for our tips as well.
 
R2 - #4 - Wolfgang - $17.00
R3 - #1 - Eneeza - $12.00
R4 - #5 - Brulante - $19.00
R6 - #4 - Politely Dun - $3.40
R7 - #2 - Oscar’s Fortune - $3.20
R8 - #3 - Laws Of Indices - $17.00
R9 - #2 - Prognosis - $3.40
R10 - #6 - Firestorm - $3.40

It is an outstanding day of racing on Saturday at The Valley. We have our best bet of the day in the Cox Plate which is the final leg of the multi tip. The roughie is first up but is not as big a price as is sometimes the case as the money has come. Get through that and we have a strong chance of a winner.

R5 - #2 - Smokin Romans - PLC $2.90
R7 - #2 - Oscar’s Fortune - PLC $1.50
R9 - #2 - Prognosis - PLC $1.55

Total Odds = $6.74
$50 Stake = $337.12 Return!

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1st: 1, 2, 4, 5
2nd: 1, 2, 4, 5
3rd: 1, 2, 4, 5
$50 stake = 208% flexi