Saturday Racing Tips The Valley 27/01/24

We head to the sharp turns of The Valley for our three main horse racing tips on Saturday afternoon. 

There are still a couple of weeks to wait for the Group 1 racing to resume, but there is a Group 2 on Saturday with a Group 1 class favourite who we think will be very hard to beat. The Valley is our destination for three tips, including a $19.00 Roughie who outran his odds at Flemington last week and has been priced up too big on the betting sites again this weekend. We also have a next-best who is a perfect 3/3 so far this prep and looks capable of improving further. 

(Note: Odds provided by Bet365)

Selections:
#1 Philosopher (NEXT BEST) - $4.00
#5 Mornington Glory - $2.80
#7 Flying On A Limb - $4.20
#2 Shirshov - $8.00

BEST BET - #1 Philosopher
Unbeaten in three starts this prep, including over this track and distance in the most recent. Before a gelding operation, he only had a single win in six starts, so that has been the making of him. All four wins have been over this distance of 1000m, and he has a handy barrier to work from here in three. He likes to be on the speed, which should be accomplished with ease, given the pair inside him are hold-up types. Overall, this race maps out perfectly for him, and he should reward bettors with a winning run. 

THE DANGER - #5 Mornington Glory
This will be the eighth race of this prep for the gelding, but he has maintained his form well, with two wins and four seconds from his first seven starts. The most recent was at Flemington, dropping to 1000m for the first time in his career. Winning there showed that he has the speed for this slightly shorter trip on a straight track, but this is a very different test around the bends at The Valley. He needs a massive amount of respect, but he didn’t beat a rival the only time he has raced here in the past - admittedly, though, that was in Group 3. 

VALUE BET  - #7 Flying On A Limb
The mare is a perfect 3/3 when she has raced over 1000m in her career as she does here. The caveat is that all those wins have come on a soft track, which she is unlikely to get here if the weather forecast is correct. A few showers on Friday might not be enough to get the juice in the ground she wants, but it might be plenty to take the sting out. She is all about speed, racing for the first time since August. She has a win in two starts first up, so that is not a concern. 

Selections:
#8 Veight (BEST BET)  - $2.60
#3 Recommendation - $3.60
#11 Southport Tycoon - $9.00
#10 Scentify - $10.00

BEST BET - #8 Veight
The three-year-old kept some warm company in the spring. Runner-up to Griff in the Group 1 Caulfield Guineas, he was fifth in a Group 1 over this distance when last seen at Flemington in a race won by Ozzmosis. There is nothing in here remotely close to the class of that rival, and while this is a sharper track and might not be absolutely ideal at 1200m, he brings the strongest form to the table. There will be bigger targets than this ahead, and even on his first start in a while, he should take some stopping. 

THE DANGER - #3 Recommendation
He likes to go forward, which will not be easy here from his barrier in 10 and with another couple who want to do the same inside him. That could make it an interesting decision that John Allen must make early, depending on the gelding’s speed from the gate. He has a fitness edge on the three-year-olds, which can only be a positive for his chances, but the wide barrier and some progressive rivals can only see him second best. 

VALUE BET  - #11 Southport Tycoon
He has only had four races, and the three-year-old has the most potential for progression in this field. He won his first two starts before running Steparty close in the Group 3 Guineas Prelude at Caulfield. That 1400m trip looked as far as he wanted to go, so it was no surprise to see him well behind Veight when he ran in the Caulfield Guineas on his next start. Back down to 1200m looks in his favour, and with no concern about him fresh, he should be in the mix for a place. 

Selections:
#6 Pereille  - $2.40
#8 Zou Sensation  - $6.00
#10 Shove Over (ROUGHIE OF THE DAY)  - $19.00
#7 Squad - $9.00

BEST BET - #6 Pereille
Godolphin gelding ran well first up at Rosehill when the lack of a run might have just cost him the race in the final 200m when a rival finished stronger. He has a solid record at this track with a win, a second in two starts, and a sharper track at the trip, no problem. Damian Lane won on him the only time he has had the ride, so the only concern is this gelding’s record of places, second on seven occasions, which is a little concerning. 

THE DANGER - #8 Zou Sensation
He likes to sit just off the speed, which will be a plus for him at this track, where he won on his only prior visit. Both wins have come over this 1200m trip, so perhaps 1400m stretched him when he was second at Geelong two weeks back. He still ran a big race, but the last 100m saw his run flatten out. Good ground is in his favour. A middle barrier will give Blaike McDougall options early on, allowing him to produce a strong run. 

VALUE BET  - #10 Shove Over
He didn’t get much luck in running at Flemington last Saturday, finding trouble at a crucial stage and being shuffled back in the pack before running on. That was a return to action that caught the eye of a good-looking handicap, so it is a bit of a surprise to see him at such a high price here. He was a $31 roughie that day, outran his odds, and can do the same again just seven days later.

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There is a good mix of rides for Allen on Saturday, with some favourites priced up by the horse racing bookmakers and a couple of roughies, including Kailash, who was under consideration as our roughie of the day. With four rides priced at less than $4.00, it should be a good Saturday at work for Allen. 

R1 - #6 - Socks Nation - $3.80
R2 - #2 - Cormorant - $34.00
R4 - #2 - Running By- $2.30
R6 - #1 - Mankayan - $3.60
R7 - #4 - Kailash - $10.00
R8 - #4 - Bill The Boxer - $12.00
R9 - #3 - Recommendation - $3.60

By its nature, The Valley tends to favour those close to the speed. That can reverse when too many want the front, but coming from too far back in the field remains challenging when they turn up the short straight. Our three multi-tip selections all sit close enough to the speed to get the breaks at the right time, which must be a plus. 

R8 - #1 - Philosopher - PLC $1.60
R9 - #5 - Veighto - PLC $1.44
R10 - #10 - Shove Over - PLC $4.20

Total Odds = $9.68
$50 Stake = $483.84 Return!

Odds are provided by Bet365, sign up for a new account here to get started.

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The Valley Racecourse Trifecta Tip (R8) 
 
1st: 1, 2, 5, 7 
2nd: 1, 2, 5, 7 
3rd: 1, 2, 5, 7 
$50 stake = 208% Flexi