Saturday Racing Tips - Randwick 27/07/24

The final Saturday of the season has arrived. We head to Randwick with a big $16.00 roughie on the card who we think that the betting sites are massively underestimating. Good ground is the order of the day which is nice to see at this time of year. Hopefully that is going to help the cream to rise to the top when it comes to our two main selections on the day. Let’s get to it and break down three of the Randwick contests.

(Note: Odds provided by bet365)

Selections:
#1 World Alliance (NEXT BEST) - $3.80
#2 Boston Rocks - $7.00 
#13 Joiselle - $11.00 
#6 Mosgold - $23.00 

BEST BET - #1 World Alliance 

This is a step up in class for him but he looks ready to take on better company. He has saluted in both starts so far this prep at Hawkesbury and Warwick Farm. They have come on a wetter track than he is going to encounter here but he has two wins and a second from his four career starts on a good track. He has only had seven starts in his life so there should be better to come for him, with Jason Collett riding him in both recent wins. That looks like being the start of an excellent partnership between them. 
 
DANGER - #2 Boston Rocks 

Below his best on his first start for Matthew Dale at Rosehill. That came on heavy ground, his first try on that sort of surface and it just didn’t look to suit him. He returns to good ground now where he has won three of his five starts so that has to rate as a big plus for him. 1100m at this track clearly suits, winning the only time he has raced over this trip at Randwick and much better is expected of him now that conditions are in his favour. 
 
VALUE BET - #13 Joiselle 

Another to make a step up in class, though hers is bigger than the one facing our next best on the afternoon. She is yet to taste defeat in three starts in her career, winning twice at Dubbo on good ground and then on heavy at Scone. That last win saw her beat a mare called Consenza who came to the city to finish second at Rosehill last Saturday. As such, it would suggest that this filly is going to be able to cope with the better company now trying metro racing for herself.

Selections:
#4 Kerguelen  - $2.20 
#1 Vivy Air - $6.00 
#3 Kadell (ROUGHIE OF THE DAY) - $16.00 
#2 Freak Of Nature - $13.00

BEST BET - #4 Kerguelen

Has made a very promising start to his career, winning two of his three starts and finishing second in the other. This is a tougher race than the Warwick Farm contest he has been running in of late but given his powerful connections, he has to be given plenty of respect up in class. All three of his runs have come on a heavy surface, trying good ground for the first time here. As long as he handles the underfoot conditions, he is the one they all have to beat for the Godolphin team. 
 
DANGER - #1 Vivy Air 

Took on Group 3 company in the autumn and did herself justice with third and fifth-placed finishes. She has since joined the yard of Ciaron Maher which has to go down as a positive in anyone's book. There are no fitness doubts first up with her finishing first and second in two of her three starts when in this situation. Six of her 10 career starts have come in Listed or Group company so this BM70 could be a very smart piece of placing by her trainer to get some confidence into her before taking on bigger targets in the spring.  
 
VALUE BET - #3 Kadell  

0/3 when first up so the fact that he ran so well over a distance too short at this track earlier in the month suggests that he is going to be better than ever for the spring. That was also on the softest ground that he has faced, returning to a sounder surface now. He boasts an excellent record so far in his career, a hard type to keep out of the frame, placing in both prior starts in this grade. It is a surprise then, given that he has hit trip and ground on a track he handles, that he is such a big price! 

Selections:
#10 Sequestered (BEST BET) - $2.40 
#6 Little Cointreau - $4.40 
#11 Southern Chilli - $10.00 
#12 Cadetship - $9.00 

BEST BET - #10 Sequestered 

It could be a big afternoon for the James Cummings and Godolphin team. They look to have their strongest chance on the card in the final race with this mare. She has not been seen since the spring but won first time up in September after a long break and that is not a concern given the stable that she represents. Three wins from five starts on good ground mean that conditions are going to suit her and she is fine at this trip on the first start of her prep.  
 
DANGER - #6 Little Cointreau 

Consistent type doesn’t know how to run a bad race. He has finished in the first three in 11 of his 12 career starts, it was only his race debut when he failed to make the frame. Three wins in six starts over 1300m plus two wins and two second-place finishes in five runs on good ground suggest that he has perfect conditions to extend his exceptional run. He is yet to run at Randwick and is wider than ideal in barrier 14 but they are only minor negatives for him. 
 
VALUE BET - #11 Southern Chilli 

Has not been at her best the last twice that she has been seen in race action. They came on Soft 7 and Heavy 9 surfaces from wide barriers so they are excusable given she is 3/6 on good ground but only 1/10 when the track has been soft or worse. She has another wider than ideal barrier to contend with again here but the other conditions of the race are going to allow her to put those recent modest runs well behind her.  

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The combination of Godolphin, James Cummings and James McDonald will like their chances of multiple winners at Randwick this weekend. There will no doubt be plenty of bettors out there who are going to be putting them together into multis with the horse racing bookmakers and they could well be rewarded given McDonald’s strong book of rides.   
 
It could in fact be one of the strongest books that we have seen any hoop get all season. Eight rides on the day with all of them priced at $5.00 or shorter, it looks like being the perfect end to the season for McDonald.  
 
R1 - #1 - Tarpaulin - $1.95 
R3 - #3 - Green Shadows - $5.00 
R4 - #5 - Mascaret - $3.50 
R6 - #2 - Tijuana - $3.20 
R7 - #4 - Fleetwood - $2.10 
R8 - #4 - Kerguelen - $2.20 
R9 - #4 - Awash - $3.60 
R10 - #10 - Sequestered - $2.40 

The Randwick multi tip this weekend relies heavily on the middle leg. We feel that the roughie is one that is massively overpriced and as such, has the potential to add some serious volume to the return on Saturday. With good ground and no rain, conditions look decent for the final weekend of the season. 

R5 - #1 - World Alliance - PLC $1.85 
R8 - #3 - Kadall - PLC $3.70 
R10 - #10 - Sequestered - PLC $1.36

Total Odds = $6.79
$50 Stake = $339.66 Return!

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Randwick Racecourse Trifecta Tip (R5) 
 
1st: 1, 2, 6, 13 
2nd: 1, 2, 6, 13 
3rd: 1, 2, 6, 13 

$50 stake = 208% flexi