Saturday Racing Tips Rosehill 28/09/24

It seems sure that the betting sites are going to be busy this weekend with the Golden Rose meeting at Rosehill the headline card on Saturday afternoon. We have three selections on the card, including a huge $31 Roughie which runs in race 10. There is some serious quality on show throughout the day so let’s get stuck into our three picks.

(Note: Odds provided by bet365)

Best of the Day

Rosehill Race 8 -

#1 Broadsiding

Win: $3.20
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Place: $1.55
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Next Best

Rosehill Race 9 -

#8 Bases Loaded

Win: $5.00
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Place: $2.25
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Roughie of the Day

Rosehill Race 10 -

#3 Sir Ravanelli

Win: $31.00
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Place: $8.00
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Rosehill Race 8 - James Squire Golden Rose (1400m)

Selections:
#1 Broadsiding (BEST BET) - $3.20
#4 Linebacker - $6.00
#3 Storm Boy - $4.80
#2 Traffic Warden - $4.00

BEST BET - #1 Broadsiding  - (BEST BET)
Absolutely beat them senseless when winning the J J Atkins on his most recent start. That was back in the middle of June and he has not been seen since. That is not the ideal prep for this, especially as he was well beaten first-up last season but that was his race debut so that might not be such an issue here. The Eagle Farm form is a standout in this field and a repeat is going to make him the one that they all have to beat. Like most of these, he is going to do better still this season, looking a hugely promising type for the Godolphin team. The top-rated in this level weights race so he is well suited to the conditions of this contest.

THE DANGER - #4 Linebacker
In front of Broadsiding over this track and distance in March, although the selection has improved hugely since. Was behind that rival the next time up at Randwick in the Group 1 Champagne over a longer trip than this. Ran on strongly from the back in the Group 2 Run To The Rose over 1200m at this track on the first start of this prep. The return to this distance is going to be a big plus for him and he should be able to strip a little fitter for this task.

VALUE BET - #3 Storm Boy
Looked like a monster two-year-old early on last prep and had won on his first start of this prep as well. Was only third last time out when in front of Linebacker but behind Traffic Warden. He made the running that day, the same that he had done when winning on his first start of the prep. Is probably still going to be better in the future but he is going to have to be if he is to get his head in front in this Group 1 contest.

Rosehill Race 9 - Canadian Club Shannon Stakes (1500m)

Selections:
#8 Bases Loaded (NEXT BEST) - $5.00
#1 Celestial Legend - $5.00
#14 Amor Victorious - $7.50
#2 Freedom Rally - $13.00

BEST BET - #8 Bases Loaded - (NEXT BEST)
Just run down late on in the Group 2 Theo Marks by Encap which is smart form. That was his first start of the season so should be able to step up on that run. That was over 1300m, rising to 1500m here which is going to be a big help given that his best form last season was over 1600m. He will appreciate the ground staying good, 2/4 with a second and a third on that ground but 0/5 when the surface has been soft or worse.

THE DANGER - #1 Celestial Legend
Below his best form when behind Bases Loaded in the Theo Marks. He is 0/4 first up so that can be excused fairly easily. Has a much better record second up, two wins in three starts so it would be no surprise if he makes a fair step forward. Won the Group 1 Doncaster at Randwick last April over 1600m on heavy ground so will appreciate this if it turns into a stiff test of stamina. Could do with the ground getting a touch softer but should be a big player.

VALUE BET - #14 Amor Victorious
Likes to be on the speed, third in a strong handicap over this track and distance last time out. Has two wins from three starts when second up so this looks like a good time to catch him. Gets blinkers added which could be an interesting factor given that he does enjoy getting on the speed so he could ensure that this is run at a solid pace which is going to help the pair above. Goes on any ground so has to be given plenty of place consideration.

Rosehill Race 10 - Rosehill Bowling Club Handicap (1100m)

Selections:
#11 Pharari  - $2.80
#8 Bonita Queen - $8.50
#3 Sir Ravanelli (ROUGHIE OF THE DAY) - $31.00
#15 Martini Mumma - $12.00

BEST BET - #11 Pharari
This is going to be a stiffer test for her but she has long looked like she is going to live up to her name. Showed last time out that she is not dependent on soft ground to show her best form which opens up plenty more opportunities for her. The winner of three of her last four starts, she has only had six in total so far in her career. Could be capable of being a good bit better than Bm78 class sooner rather than later, no surprise if she picks up black type this prep.

THE DANGER - #8 Bonita Queen
Three wins and three seconds in eight career starts, she has done well this prep with a couple of winning runs. Those have come in weekday contests so she is up in grade taking on a Saturday race, especially on a metro track. All of her three wins have come over this distance of 1100m so she is starting to become a trip specialist. Bjorn Baker is an exceptional placer of his sprint horses so the fact that he is happy to pitch her into this class could speak strongly for her chance. 

VALUE BET - #3 Sir Ravanelli
The early runs in a prep have been the time to catch him so far in his career. He has an excellent strike rate of 8/24 with seven of those wins coming during the first three runs of a prep. That is particularly notable when he is on his second start as he is here. Four second-up runs so far have yielded three wins and a second. That is hugely eye-catching when looking for a roughie pick so it is a bit of a surprise that he is available at the odds that he currently is. Was trapped wide on his first run of this prep so that is an easy run to excuse. Has two wins, a second and two thirds in eight runs in this class and can add to that excellent record.

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Jockey Of The Day – Tommy Berry

Tommy Berry is without a doubt one of the top hoops in the country on his day. He has not always been in the spotlight for the right reasons but the 34-time Group 1 winner is an outstanding jockey and has some very smart rides on the day, including a couple the horse racing bookmakers will want to see beaten. Berry has more than 1500 winners on the board so far in his career and that could easily be added to by a few on Saturday afternoon.

R1 - #15 - Monte Kate - $13.00
R2 - #18 - Trianon - $31.00
R3 - #5 - First Light - $9.00
R4 - #12 - Mare Of Mt Buller - $6.50
R5 - #1 - Bodyguard - $4.40
R6 - #14 - Cadetship - $16.00
R7 - #2 - Amelia’s Jewel - $3.00
R8 - #6 - Fearless - $41.00
R10 - #7 - Moonhaven - $23.00