Saturday Racing Tips Moonee Valley 28/12/24

The final weekend of 2024 is here and we are off to Moonee Valley for our final horse racing tips of the year. Although it is not one of the strongest cards that we have seen at the Melbourne track during the season, there are still some very interesting runners on the afternoon. Let’s get into it as we find the best picks on the betting sites.

(Note: Odds provided by bet365)

Best of the Day	Moonee Valley Race 6 1 - (Fickle)	Win: $2.50 Bet Now	Place: $1.5 Bet Now
Next Best	Moonee Valley Race 5 8 - (Mytemptation)	Win: $3.80 Bet Now	Place: $1.80 Bet Now
Roughie of the Day	Moonee Valley Race 1 - (Capulet)	Win: $11.00 Bet Now	Place: $3.40 Bet Now

Moonee Valley Race 5 - Josh Freake’s Bucks Handicap (1200m)

Selections:
#8 Mytemptation (NEXT BEST) - $3.80 (All prices taken from bet365)
#2 Intrepid Eagle - $7.50
#6 Nation State - $16.00
#11 Thailess - $5.00

BEST BET - #8 Mytemptation
Is perhaps drawn a touch wider than is absolutely ideal here but he is one of the runners on the card who is open to a huge amount of progression. He has only had two starts in his life, saluting in both at Bairnsdale and Caulfield Heath. This is going to be tougher for him as it is a step up in class but he is very much a blank canvas at present. He has won both starts with a touch more in hand than the bare margins might suggest and looks like an exciting type for the future.

DANGER - #2 Intrepid Eagle
Gained an overdue win at Caulfield Heath on his last start. His career record would suggest that he would be no good thing to follow that up with another win but he is generally a consistent type. He has not managed to get his head in front in seven attempts in a Bm70 handicap but he has been second in four of those and third in another. That suggests that he is a strong runner for those who like a Quinella or Trifecta bet but he may well find that the selection is too strong for him.

VALUE BET - #6 Nation State
Has been feast or famine in four starts this season so it is anyone's guess as to which Nation State pitches up here. He has not raced at Moonee Valley before but he is a prominent racer which suggests that this might be a track that suits him. He is a perfect 2/2 under jockey Beau Mertens and 2/10 for all other hoops so Mertens being back in the saddle has to be seen as a big plus for him. Wins this season have been over 1000m and 1300m so 1200m won’t be an issue here.

Moonee Valley Race 6 - Tour Edge Handicap (1000m)

Selections:
#1 Fickle (BEST BET) - $2.50
#8 Mighty - $7.00
#7 Soju - $21.00
#9 Takeko - $8.00

BEST BET - #1 Fickle
Is producing a strong level of form this season, improving each time she has hit the track. Her form has gone to a new level in her last two starts when Craig Williams has had the ride on her. The first of those was over this track and distance when she came home four and three-quarters of a length to the good over her rivals. That was a similar race to this one and although she has more on her plate here, she is more than capable of taking the ratings rise in her stride. She has only had seven starts in her life so it is easy to think that she is going to have stronger form still to come.

DANGER - #8 Mighty
Last raced in September which is a plus for her. Both career wins have come in a first-up situation and she has been pitched into some far deeper races than this one in her short career. Four of her 12 starts have come in black-type company so she will appreciate this level. Has a win and a third in three prior runs in a Bm70 so this is a level that she is very comfortable at. The only time that she was outside the first three was when she was fourth at this track when first-up. That is a slight concern for her chances but she is still a strong contender on the pick of her form.

VALUE BET - #7 Soju
Things didn’t quite fall right for her on her first start of this prep at Caulfield Heath but she was far from disgraced in third. She was fourth the only time that she had raced over this track and distance in the past. The winner was rated 61 that day but is now 75 so that run in March can be marked up a little bit. Would appeal a touch more if the forecast showers turned out to be much heavier than expected as she is 2/4 on soft and only 1/7 on good but she has a solid chance in any case.

Moonee Valley Race 8 - Drummond Club Handicap (2040m)

Selections:
#9 Zambezi Khan - $9.00
#3 Howlin Rain - $8.00
#1 Capulet (ROUGHIE OF THE DAY) - $11.00
#5 Mannerheim - $4.60

BEST BET - #9 Zambezi Khan
Runner-up in the SA Fillies Classic at Morphettville back in May over 2500m. Her two runs so far this prep have been over 1350m and 1500m so the step up to in excess of 2000m is going to be a big help to her. The second of those was her first run at this track, keeping going all the way to the line. Good ground suits her well and she is a perfect 2/2 when third up in the past so this could well be the time to catch her again. Every chance this has been a long-term plan to get her stretching her legs out in distance again.

DANGER - #3 Howlin Rain
Did well to win from the widest barrier at Seymour on his most recent start. That was the first time that Tim Stockdale had ridden him, retaining the mount here. Was only 1/15 in his career but arrives at Moonee Valley looking for a hat-trick of wins. Has a much kinder barrier to work from here in two, although he might need to be ridden a touch closer to the pace than is often the case. Being held up again will negate having that inside draw but in general, he is worth the step up in class.

VALUE BET - #1 Capulet
It was not until the last time, the 19th start of her career, that she tried this distance of 2000m for the first time. She went from the front that day so connections clearly had no stamina doubts and she rewarded them with a win in a very smart time. That was a Bm64 at Mornington so this is not only a better quality race but also a contest on a better track so she will have to show a little more again. However, now that connections have found the key to her, there might be more to come.

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Jockey of the Day - Craig Williams

There are plenty of favourites with the horse racing bookmakers for veteran hoop Craig Williams at Moonee Valley on Saturday. They include the ride on both our best bet and the next best. We are hugely invested in the jockey having a great afternoon to close out the last weekend of 2024 with a string of winners.

R1 - #8 - Lodbrok - $6.50
R2 - #1 - Neverenoughlego - $5.00
R4 - #1 - Just For Show - $2.70
R5 - #8 - Mytemptation - $3.80
R6 - #1 - Fickle - $2.50
R7 - #9 - Bon Mistress - $4.00
R8 - #6 - Pure Grunt - $7.50
R9 - #10 - Bold Soul - $5.00
R10 - #17 - Octrain - $16.00