It is the final Group 1 of the season on Saturday afternoon at Eagle Farm and the fillies and mares take centre stage for the Tattersall’s Tiara. Our best bet of the day runs in the feature as we look to close out the season with a strong showing in Queensland. We also look to take on the horse racing bookmakers with a roughie that has a strong chance if the returning headgear has the expected, positive effect.
(Note: Odds provided by bet365)
Selections:
#7 Knight’s Choice (NEXT BEST) - $4.60
#4 Serpentine - $6.00
#9 Young Werther - $5.00
#5 Spirit Ridge - $6.50
BEST BET - #7 Knight’s Choice
Producing some smart form this prep, second in the Q22 over 2200m at this track last time out. He was no match for the winner Fawkner Park on that occasion but this is an easier contest and he tends to win later in his preps. In the first three runs of his preps, he has a record of 0/9, runs after that he is 5/7 in subsequent starts. That is quite a record to bring to the table and he shapes as if this first attempt at 2400m could bring about a little more improvement from him which would be dangerous for all of her rivals.
DANGER - #4 Serpentine
Things didn’t really drop right for him in the Group 1 Doomben Cup last time out on ground that would probably have been a touch too soft for him. He drops to a Group 3 here where he has a record of 1-2-1 in five starts so that has to give him a chance at a level he copes well with. Saluted in both a Listed and a Group 3 contest in March over 2000m but this distance of 2400m probably suits him even better despite only having a single win over this distance. Conditions look suitable for him and he looks like going well.
VALUE BET - #9 Young Werther
A little over two lengths behind Knight’s Choice in the Q22 last time out. Had a wide enough trip in that contest so it can perhaps be marked up a touch and is another who might be able to find a touch more for this new trip. His last win came in the Australian Cup Prelude when he made all the running so it would be a little bit more interesting if he is reverting to those tactics as he was a little further back in the Q22 than he normally is.
Selections:
#14 Cottee - $8.00
#4 Charterhouse - $7.50
#3 Jimi Hendrix (ROUGHIE OF THE DAY) - $26.00
#1 Cepheus - $12.00
BEST BET - #14 Cottee
Very progressive in the spring, winning twice at this track. She gets in with a very light weight here, not beaten far in a similar contest over this track and distance last time out. She lost a good early position that day before running on again late so it is a run that can be rated higher. Given a smoother passage through here, she might be ready to make a breakthrough at this level and should be able to find a nice position early on from her middle barrier draw.
DANGER - #4 Charterhouse
Has two wins from four starts when third up as he is now so this could be the right time to catch him. Behind a couple of these in the Wayne Wilson last time out over this track and distance but given that he is just 1/6 second time up, it is easy enough to think that he is going to be better off here. Has had a couple of Listed wins in his career so far and another one here would not come as much of a surprise.
VALUE BET - #3 Jimi Hendrix
Ran a big race at this track on his Australian debut but he has been a long way below that level of form in two subsequent starts. On those two runs, it would be hard to make much of a case for him but there is one important difference here, the blinkers are back on. He won two of his five starts when wearing them in England, including the Royal Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot as well as finishing third in a Group 2 contest at that same track. If their return works as well now that they have been missing for a while, he might be able to make a big step up on that form.
Selections:
#1 Bella Nipotina (BEST BET) - $2.20
#8 C’est Magique - $7.00
#2 Semana - $15.00
#6 Bubble Rock $19.00
BEST BET - #1 Bella Nipotina
One of the toughest mares in training, she perhaps does not salute as often as one of her abilities should but she is a class act who has a huge amount of top Group 1 form that puts her on top of this field by a considerable margin. A draw out in 17 is not a plus for her but she exited the same barrier when she was second in the Stradbroke over this track and distance last time out and a repeat of that run should be enough in a weaker Group 1 on paper, back against only her own sex group.
DANGER - #8 C’est Magique
Joined Chris Waller and produced arguably the best run of her career when winning the Group 2 Dane Ripper. She has only run at this level twice in her life, runner-up in the Coolmore Stud in October 2022 in the most recent of those. The Dane Ripper was her first run at this track, stepping up to 1400m here with that contest over 1300m, the furthest distance that she has run over. She was right on the pace throughout on that occasion so should not have any issue with the longer distance.
VALUE BET - #2 Semana
Is a stable mate of the favourite and has some smart Group 1 form of her own this season. She was never a factor in the Stradbroke when she missed the break and had to challenge wide as a result. She was placed in both the Coolmore and the Queen of the Turf earlier in the autumn which is strong form for this level. This trip is ideal for her and granted a better exit from the barriers, she should be able to take a more prominent position which is going to be a big plus for her chance.
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There are seven rides in nine races for Blake Shinn on Saturday at Eagle Farm and they include a couple of favourites on the betting sites who look to have strong chances of saluting. The 36-year-old has more than 1850 winners on the board as he closes in on the 2000 mark, a total that he will be looking to get to next season. He should get a couple of winners closer this weekend given the strength of his book of rides.
R1 - #2 - Pure Paradise - $3.20
R2 - #5 - Heinous - $4.20
R3 - #16 - Nanagui - $26.00
R5 - #4 - Princess Rhaenys - $2.40
R6 - #9 - Young Werther - $5.00
R7 - #1 - Cepheus - $12.00
R9 - #8 - Ghaanati - $13.00
A couple of favourites and a big roughie make up our multi tip for Saturday with the potential payout well boosted with the middle leg being a fair size. We look to end the Group 1 races this season with style.
R6 - #7 - Knight’s Choice - PLC $6.00
R7 - #3 - Jimi Hendrix - PLC $1.95
R8 - #1 - Bella Nipotina - PLC $1.44
Total Odds = $16.85
$50 Stake = $842.40 Return!
Odds are provided by bet365, sign up for a new account here to get started.
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Eagle Farm Racecourse Trifecta Tip (R8)
1st: 1, 2, 6, 8
2nd: 1, 2, 6, 8
3rd: 1, 2, 6, 8
$50 stake = 208% flexi
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