Saturday Racing Tips - Caulfield 31/08/24

It is Memsie Stakes Day on The Heath and there is an excellent line-up for the Group 1 contest this season. It was won by Mr Brightside in 2023 and he is back to try and defend his crown against the likes of Pride Of Jenni. There is little doubt that this is going to be the race on Saturday afternoon that sees the most bets placed with the horse racing bookmakers. It is also the race where we have our Next Best on the card!  

(Note: Odds provided by bet365)

Selections:
#2 Duke Of Sessa  - $5.50
#12 Aramco - $4.20 
#6 Okita Soushi (ROUGHIE OF THE DAY) - $41.00 
#3 Young Werther - $7.50 

BEST BET - #2 Duke Of Sessa
There are a few showers forecast but as much as we hope that they are not too heavy for our roughie hope in the race, Ciaron Maher will be torn as the trainer of both. This gelding could do with a drop of rain just to take the sting out of the ground as he has shown his very best form on a soft surface. He copes fine with good and if it doesn't deteriorate, he is still the one that they have to beat, even on good. He got no luck at The Valley last time out, this track should play much more to his strengths. 

THE DANGER - #12 Aramco
One of the quickest improving horses in the country in 2024, he was running in Benchmark 70 races as recently as January 20, progressing to his current rating of 85. He is a six-year-old but he has only had 11 starts in his life so he has very few miles on the clock for one of his years. That could mean that there is still a little bit more improvement that the Chris Waller team can squeeze out of him. He has two wins and a second in the three starts that Damian Lane has been in the saddle as he is here. 

VALUE BET  - #6 Okita Soushi
The European import has his first run since finishing down the field for Joseph O’Brien in the 2023 Melbourne Cup. Ciaron Maher is now in charge of his campaigning and he has given the horse plenty of time to settle into his new surroundings. Maher does well with these types when he doesn’t rush them and the sound conditions at Caulfield will play perfectly to this horse's strengths. A Royal Ascot winner in June 2023, any sort of market move for him should be well noted. 

Selections:
#1 Mr Brightside (Next Best) - $2.70 
#7 Pride Of Jenni - $2.50 
#6 Antino - $6.00 
#5 Pinstriped - $13.00 

BEST BET - #1 Mr Brightside 
The winner of this race when first-up last year, he was not so good in the autumn when he was beaten on a regular basis by the re-opposing Pride Of Jenni. He carried all before him in the spring, however, so if he is going to get a win against that mare, then it is going to be this time of year when both of them are fresh. He has won three of his seven starts when first-up and most importantly is a perfect 5/5 when running over 1400m at Caulfield. 

THE DANGER - #7 Pride Of Jenni 
Took off in the autumn, quite literally in her races. Some of her front running displays were barely believable, able to maintain a ferocious gallop in her races. There is little doubt that on the form that she showed when beating Mr Brightside on a regular basis in the autumn that she is the superior performer this year. The massive concerns for her here is that this trip is a little on the short side for her, just 1/11 in her life over 1400m and her first time-up record. She has run seven times in this situation in the opening race of her prep and she is yet to win any. 

VALUE BET  - #6 Antino
Just behind Pride Of Jenni in a recent jump out at Cranbourne but that is all that he needs to get himself ready. He has an exceptional record first up, winning four of his five starts in this situation. It is interesting that connections are happy to throw him in with a pair of exceptional Group 1 winners here given that he has only run three times in this class and has not won any of them. Generally this would be beyond his capabilities but his record first up means that he needs to be given a huge amount of respect.  

Selections:
#2 Another Wil (BEST BET) - $2.70 
#11 Jennilala - $7.00 
#16 Snowman - $8.00 
#1 Here To Shock - $13.00 

BEST BET - #2 Another Wil 
Was one of the talking horses in the autumn, improving from winning a Benchmark 70 on February 10 to being sent off at odds of just $3.80 in the Group 1 Doncaster on April 6. It was a meteoric rise and while he was only seventh in that first attempt at the top table he was beaten less than 2.5 lengths so it is not like he was in any way disgraced. He was entered in the Memsie but connections have opted for this Bm100 instead and that decision can be rewarded with a winning start to his prep.  

THE DANGER - #11 Jennilala 
Unlike Pride Of Jenni who is in the same ownership, this mare has an exceptional record when she is on the first start of her prep. She has three wins and a second from four starts in this situation and this looks a suitable opportunity for her to add to her excellent stats. She is another who ran well in a Group 1 in the autumn when less than two lengths behind the winner in the Coolmore, Zougotcha. Declan Bates is 3/5 on her and is back in the saddle for the first time in three starts. 

VALUE BET  -  #16 Snowman 
Runner-up in a Group 2 at Randwick last October, this is only his second start since then. He came to hand quickly in the spring last year, splitting decisions with Riff Rocket in September. That level of form reads well in this contest and while he has only won once in four starts when first-up, his overall efforts entitle him to respect. 1400m is arguably a little on the short side for him but as a starting point for his season, it probably fits him well enough.  

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It is another strong book of rides at Caulfield for Kah. She will be on our best bet of the afternoon in the last, one that is well fancied on the betting sites. There are other strong chances on the way through the afternoon where she has a mount in every race from the third through to the final race on the card. 
 
R3 - #12 - Rise To It - $3.60 
R4 - #11 - Alder - $5.00 
R5 - #1 - Kallos - $4.40 
R6 - #8 - Let’sfacethemusic - $9.00 
R7 - #2 - Wrote To Arataki - $23.00 
R8 - #11 - Saint George - $15.00 
R9 - #6 - Antino - $6.00 
R10 - #2 - Another Wil - $2.70 

A big risk this week for the potential of a big reward. Our roughie is a huge price to get us started off in the Caulfield multi tip. If he is able to find his way into the frame then we should have very strong claims of landing the bet with the second and third selections both looking absolutely rock solid.

4 - #6 - Okita Soushi - PLC $9.50 
R9 - #1 - Mr Brightside - PLC $1.28 
R10 - #2 - Another Wil - PLC $1.65 

Total Odds = $20.06
$50 Stake = $1003.20 Return!

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Caulfield Racecourse Trifecta Tip (R9) 
 
1st: 1, 5, 6, 7 
2nd: 1, 5, 6, 7 
3rd: 1, 5, 6, 7 

$50 stake = 208% flexi