NBA 2024-25 MVP Winner Betting Preview – Odds, Tips & Predictions

The MVP Award is the most coveted individual accolade in the NBA regular season, perhaps only the Finals MVP outstripping it overall – though that probably depends on who you ask. Regardless of how you rank those two, it’s a significant award and one that elevates the historical standing of whoever wins it. For much of history, the MVP was won virtually exclusively by American players, but the influx of international talent has been swift and for years now, that talent has had exclusive ownership of the award. In 2019, Giannis Antetokounmpo became just the fifth international player to win it in over 60 years of history, and that kickstarted a run of six consecutive MVPs which went to players from outside of the United States – three to Nikola Jokic, two to Giannis and one to Joel Embiid.

Those internationals once again dominated the top of this market entering the season, but just a few weeks into the season, and after a couple of them slipped down the list at the expense of a couple of Americans, the pre-season order has been restored. The runaway top four favourites at the time of writing all hail from outside of the USA, three of them from Europe, with three-time winner Nikola Jokic establishing himself as the odds-on man to beat courtesy of an incredible run of play in an increasingly incredible career. Below, we take a look at the chances of him and the next few favourites in the race for this prestigious award.

Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets)

Nikola Jokic is the best player in the world and has been for a long time, and deservedly entered the season as favourite to win what would be his fourth MVP in just five years. But he drifted in the betting odds early, and if you read the last update of this page you would have seen our suggestion to jump on at what are quite possibly the longest odds he will be at all season. That suggestion remained at the last update even after his odds halved, and just a few weeks later those odds have halved once again to the point where he is now at less than $2 to win the award, even with nearly three-quarters of the season remaining. And it’s pretty easy to see why.

Jokic has been putting up absurd numbers for years, showcasing an almost historically unparalleled ability to manipulate opposing defences and get either teammates or himself basically any look that he wants, and he has taken that ability to another level in 2024-25. At the time of writing, his numbers are as follows; 32.3 points per game on 56.3% shooting from the field and 50.6% from three-point range, 13.6 rebounds, 10.2 assists and 1.8 steals. Over one ridiculous weekend in early December, he put up 56-16-8 and 48-14-8 over two legs of a back-to-back, helping to shorten some already very short odds for him to win this award. The Nuggets are still not exactly setting the world on fire, and some more consistency on the court from the team overall would further help what is already a very compelling MVP case. But while team performance is important, there is a point at which a player is so far ahead of the chasing pack that it becomes a little less relevant. Jokic is at that point, and with the Nuggets every chance of working their way up the standings as the season wears on, it may well prove very difficult to find any holes in his campaign.

Bet on Nikola Jokic to win the MVP @ $1.93 with Unibet

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Oklahoma City Thunder)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been the most consistent top-tier MVP threat in the betting, having entered the season as one of the favourites and having hardly fluctuated over the first few weeks. That’s no great surprise; the Canadian is one of the most consistent players in the league and has a remarkable habit of putting up virtually exactly the same numbers with alarming regularity. His numbers are ever so slightly down on last season, but it’s a very minor difference; he put up 30.1 per game last season and is at the time of writing averaging 29.8, though his field goal percentage is a little more reduced, having dropped from 53.5% to 50.8%. The rest of his numbers are virtually identical, and his Thunder sit on top of the Western Conference and are the clear favourite to win the West.  
 
Being in the top couple of players in the league and leading one’s team to top spot in the most competitive Conference would make for a pretty good MVP case most years, and will once again in 2024-25. The main question surrounding Gilgeous-Alexander is whether it's enough to knock off a couple of even more statistically dominant opposing players, in particular Nikola Jokic. By the end of the season, more than likely there will be at least a couple of players who, at least on paper, have outperformed the Thunder guard. But obviously numbers aren’t everything, and in his favour alongside his offensive performance will be the fact that he is an elite defensive player, and his team is one of the best in the league. He is also extraordinarily consistent and very durable, so the chances are that he will continue on his merry way for the rest of the season. If we were betting on a top three finish, Gilgeous-Alexander would be deservedly at nearly unbackable odds. But with Jokic and a couple of others playing at the level that they are, he might be destined for yet another second or third place finish this season. 

Bet on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to win the MVP @ $4.50 with PlayUp

Giannis Antetokounmpo (Milwaukee Bucks)

Giannis Antetokounmpo does pretty much the same thing every year, and 2024-25 appears to be no different. In fact, his season to date is arguably his best yet. At the time of writing, the Greek Freak is averaging a career-high 32.5 points per game, and doing it on an equal career-high 61.1% from the field. He’s also grabbing 11.6 rebounds and dishing out 6.2 assists per game, while continuing to be one of the most disruptive defensive players in the NBA. He is probably having a better season than he did in his two MVP seasons, but then one could argue that was the case the past few seasons too, when he hasn’t won.
 
Giannis has been the victim of a couple of things. The first of those is voter fatigue. With Antetokounmpo continuing to dish up the same thing year in year out, what was once so novel has become the norm, and there is no doubting that impacts voting. The second, more compelling, reason he hasn’t won the past few seasons is simply the rise of a couple of generational players, most notably Nikola Jokic. Had the Serbian been around and playing as he has been for the past few years back when Giannis won his MVPs, the Bucks’ star might not have any. But that’s not to denigrate Antetokounmpo. He is a completely dominant player at both ends of the floor and has been for years, and though he has a glaring flaw in the lack of a reliable jump shot, very rarely are opposing defences able to contain him. He was at longer odds a few weeks ago and looked like good value, and unsurprisingly he has shortened since. This feels like a year when he may well work himself back into the MVP discussion, and even having come in a little he could be decent value. The Bucks’ struggles certainly do not help him, but in a weak Eastern Conference they should be good enough to at least earn a top five or six case. He will be hard-pressed to catch Jokic, but there is every possibility that Antetokounmpo ends the season as the league’s leading scorer while shooting 60+%, grabbing around 12 rebounds, dishing out six assists, and being one of the best defenders in the game. That is a pretty compelling MVP case.

Bet on Giannis Antetokounmpo to win the MVP @ $9.00 with Unibet

Luka Doncic (Dallas Mavericks)

Luka Doncic has set a pretty high bar for himself over the past few years. Last season, the Slovenian averaged a ridiculous 33.9 points, 9.2 rebounds and 9.8 assists and led a relatively mediocre roster outside of he and Kyrie Irving to the NBA Finals. It’s testament to the quality of the top players in the league at the moment that even that performance wasn’t enough for him to be a realistic candidate in the MVP race, and having dropped a little by his very lofty standards early in this season his odds blew out into the double figures a few weeks ago. But after missing a few games at the end of November, Doncic appears to have returned to something nearing his best. In his first four games following that return, he averaged 31.3 points, 10.5 rebounds and 9.5 assists, with the Mavs winning all four of those games.

As ridiculous as those numbers are, they are not unsustainable for Doncic. He is more than capable of once again finishing the season averaging virtually a 30-point triple-double, and while numbers are not everything, those are some tough ones to ignore. That’s even more the case if the Mavericks can repeat something resembling their effort from last season, and end the regular season with a high seed in the West. But as with most players in this race, the main concern for Doncic will be the fact that the players he is competing against for the MVP are just so good. Most seasons, a 30-point triple-double average on one of the best teams in comfortably the better Conference would be a pretty difficult MVP case to ignore. But this year, however, there will be at least a couple of other players putting up some equally compelling cases. Doncic has some serious players to beat to win this award, but at the same time, so high is his ceiling that if he can continue his recent run of form and the Mavericks end up working their way up towards the Thunder in the Western Conference standings, he will shorten even further, and the $9 currently on offer for him to win the MVP might end up being looking like pretty long odds.

Bet on Luka Doncic to win the MVP @ $9.00 with Unibet

Jayson Tatum (Boston Celtics)

Tatum is a fantastic player, and through the early stages of the season his odds to win the MVP shortened quite significantly. There was some good reason for that; his Celtics were once again proving just how phenomenal a team they are, and he is their best player. But while he is undoubtedly one of the better players in the league, it was always going to be hard for him to compete with the likes of the above four. His ceiling is simply not at their level, and the 28.2 points, 8.9 rebounds and 5.7 assists that he is averaging at the time of writing is probably about as good as it is going to get for him. That’s not to denigrate those numbers; that is an incredibly strong season and on the best team in the league, is worthy of MVP consideration.

But Tatum has since drifted, with the outrageous play of Jokic, the improved performance of Jokic and the continued dominance of Antetokounmpo and Gilgeous-Alexander simply better than what Tatum can dish up. It’s difficult to say that without it sounding like a criticism of Tatum, but it’s really not. He’s a fantastic player and he has done a great job of taking a slightly reduced offensive role to enable the rest of his very gifted fellow starters to get fed as well. But he’s just not as good as the top end of international talent in the league at the moment, and particularly with them also being on good teams, the fact that the Celtics are the championship favourites and are a very good chance of ending the season with the best record in the league isn’t likely to be enough to see Tatum win this award. If things continue as they are currently, Tatum might pick up a few third place votes here and there and maybe even a second from those who think that he has been underrated over the past couple of seasons, but unless things change dramatically, it’s hard to see him earning more votes than all of the above names.

Bet on Jayson Tatum to win the MVP @ $17.00 with Unibet

Anthony Davis (Los Angeles Lakers)

Anthony Davis is yet another of the American group who seemed destined to catapult into MVP contention early in the year, only to quickly drop down the list as we near the end of the calendar year. His start to the season was phenomenal, with his first 15 games of the season yielding 30.1 points per game on 55.6% shooting from the field, 11.1 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.9 steals and 1.3 blocks. The Lakers were also very good in the early stages of the season, winning 10 of those first 15 games that their big man played in. But since then, things have gone downhill for the most spotlighted team in the league, and Davis’ season has mirrored the performance of his team. In the eight games following that hot start – which brings us to the current day – he averaged just 22.5 points per game on 47.6% shooting, with the Lakers winning just three of those games.

Most in the NBA world agree that the best version of Davis is one of the most dominant players in the league. Reaching that level on a consistent basis has been a struggle throughout the course of his career, with injury playing a significant role in that, though in fairness he has now been on the court and playing high level basketball for close to a season and a half. But for him to compete for the MVP, he will need to play at the level that he did for those first 15 games for the rest of the season, and probably even better. The Lakers, too, need to be better; if Davis is a 30-point, 12-rebound table on a team that makes the Play-In, that won’t get near the MVP in a season like this. He does at least have a very high ceiling, and it’s not completely out of the realms of possibility for him to go on a few extended runs of games in which he picks up 35+ points and 12+ rebounds more often than not, while dominating at the defensive end. That would obviously help the Lakers’ win/loss record, too, and could at least see his odds shorten for this award. For him to win it, though, it would take him playing the best basketball of his career for the rest of the season. He’s probably a better bet than some of the other rank outsiders in the field, but realistically it’s very difficult to see Davis going close in this season’s MVP race.

Bet on Anthony Davis to win the MVP @ $61.00 with Unibet

Anthony Edwards (Minnesota Timberwolves)

Just a few short weeks ago, Anthony Edwards was at around $10 to win the MVP. That felt a little short. Edwards is a quality young player and may well one day be the face of the league, but unless he took an enormous step forward in what is his fifth season in the NBA, he was never going to be able to compete with the top tier of contenders for this award. His form has dipped slightly over recent games and that has seen him blow out, but that has combined with the improved performance of Jokic and co to see Edwards left completely in the wake of those other MVP contenders. So far, this has been the best season of Edwards’ career from a scoring perspective, but still; he is putting up 26.4 points per game on 45.3% shooting (though his true shooting percentage should be up given he is taking a very high volume of three-pointers and hitting a career-high 42.7% of them) as well as 5.4 rebounds and 4.0 assists.

Those are solid numbers, but they wouldn’t be MVP-worthy most seasons, let alone now with the quality of top end talent in the league. Edwards has to become a more efficient scorer and a much better facilitator until he is genuinely in the MVP conversation, and he also hasn’t been helped by the fact that the Timberwolves have thus far struggled to rekindle the defensive intensity that saw them become one of the best teams in the league last season. They have begun to demonstrate some of that form in recent games, and if they do manage to work their way up the Western Conference standings it will help his case to some extent. But even if the Timberwolves somehow finished on top of the West, Edwards would still have needed a remarkable improvement in output to win this award. All of this sounds very negative about a 23-year-old who has already established himself as one of the better players in the league, but it’s not to say he isn’t a terrific player with the potential to be the best in the business. He absolutely is that, but for the time being he is a rung or two below the best of the best, and it would be an enormous surprise to see him re-establish himself as a genuine MVP contender this season.

Bet on Anthony Edwards to win the MVP @ $81.00 with Unibet

Stephen Curry (Golden State Warriors)

In LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry, we are in a golden era of superstars performing at an incredibly high level into their mid and late 30s (and in LeBron’s case, his 40s). All three of those are having good seasons even if they are not at the absolute peaks of their powers, and Curry finds himself – along with Durant and a host of others – a notch below the above seven in the MVP betting. He is at triple figures with most betting sites and for good reason – realistically it is very difficult to see him even going close to winning this award – but nonetheless he has had a really solid season on a Warriors’ team that, particularly early in the year, significantly outperformed expectations.

At the time of writing, Curry is only averaging 23.0 points per game – his lowest number in over a decade with the exception of the 2019-20 season in which he played just five games – but he is doing that on typically elite shooting numbers. From the field he’s at just 45.0%, but that’s to be expected when you take the volume of threes that he does, and he’s hitting those at 41.7% - a ridiculous rate when you consider both the quantity and difficulty of those shots. He’s also grabbing 5.3 boards and an impressive 6.6 assists, the latter of which is the highest he has averaged in close to ten years. The Warriors started the season like a house on fire, and when they found themselves right up the top of the Western Conference standings 15 games or so into the season it was inevitable that someone from the team would work their way up this list. Curry was always going to be that man, even if his numbers are a little down on previous seasons. The Warriors are still in a good position but have dropped off, and realistically are probably destined to be around the glut of teams in around the Play-In positions in the West. Even if Curry ups his output a little over the rest of the season it won’t be enough to challenge the top MVP contenders, so even at long odds you’d be best off avoiding him. But even if he’s not a true contender, he deserves plenty of credit for playing at the level that he is in his 16th NBA season.

Bet on Stephen Curry to win the MVP @ $101.00 with Unibet

Jayson Tatum is still hanging around, but unless something changes dramatically, this season’s fight for the MVP feels very much like a four-man race. Jokic is deservedly the odds on favourite and is going to be incredibly hard to beat – come season’s end, we may well be discussing his season as one of the greatest in league history. He was absolutely value over the past few weeks having drifted, at one stage, out to over $7, but while he would still be my pick it’s hard to justify betting on him at those odds with so much water to go under the bridge. Both Antetokounmpo and Doncic do look like decent value, and Giannis in particular could be shortening as the season wears on. He is, as he recently said, playing better than he did in his MVP seasons – in fact this might be the best season of his career, and after years of being overlooked for this award despite playing brilliant basketball, the narrative may gradually be shifting back towards one which focuses on him being underappreciated. To catch Jokic he will probably need the Serbian to slow down a little, but if that happens, the 32-13-6 splits Giannis could easily average while shooting over 60% from the field and delivering elite defence will create a compelling MVP case. He wouldn’t be my pick all things being equal, but in terms of value he looks like a decent pick.

NBA MVP awards by position

• Point guard - 11 
• Shooting guard - 8
• Small forward - 9
• Power forward - 10
• Center – 30

NBA MVP History

• 2023-24 - Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets)
• 2022-23 – Joel Embiid (Philadelphia 76ers) 
• 2021-22 - Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets)
• 2020-21 - Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets)
• 2019-20 - Giannis Antetokounmpo (Milwaukee Bucks)
• 2018-19 - Giannis Antetokounmpo (Milwaukee Bucks)
• 2017-18 - James Harden (Houston Rockets)
• 2016-17 - Russell Westbrook (Oklahoma City Thunder)
• 2015-16 - Stephen Curry (Golden State Warriors)
• 2014-15 - Stephen Curry (Golden State Warriors)
• 2013-14 - Kevin Durant (Oklahoma City Thunder)
• 2012-13 - LeBron James (Miami Heat)
• 2011-12 - LeBron James (Miami Heat)
• 2010-11 - Derrick Rose (Chicago Bulls)