The MVP Award is the most coveted individual accolade in the NBA regular season, perhaps only the Finals MVP outstripping it overall – though that probably depends on who you ask. Regardless of how you rank those two, it’s a significant award and one that elevates the historical standing of whoever wins it. For much of history, the MVP was won virtually exclusively by American players, but the influx of international talent has been swift and for years now, that talent has had exclusive ownership of the award. In 2019, Giannis Antetokounmpo became just the fifth international player to win it in over 60 years of history, and that kickstarted a run of six consecutive MVPs which went to players from outside of the United States – three to Nikola Jokic, two to Giannis and one to Joel Embiid.
That seems all but certain to continue this season. A couple of internationals in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic have established themselves as the almost unbackable favourites not even halfway into the season, while easily their biggest threat according to the odds is the Greek Freak in Giannis Antetokounmpo. But there is, of course, plenty of water to go under the bridge before the end of this season, so on this page we will take a look at the chances not just of those favourites, but of the chasing pack trying to give themselves any hope of catching them.
Nikola Jokic has been the best player in the world for years now, and somehow he has taken his game to another level this season. Having won three of the last four MVPs and finished second in the other, he has averaged around 25-27 points, 11-14 rebounds and 8-10 assists in each of those seasons, while generally shooting in the high 50%s from the field and mid-high 30%s from three-point range. This season, he is at the upper end in each of those categories and beyond what he has ever managed from a scoring perspective. The Serbian big man is putting up ridiculous numbers, more ridiculous than the ridiculous numbers we have come to expect from him, at the time of writing averaging 31.5 points per game on 55.4% shooting from the field and a wild 47.7% from three-point range, as well as 13.0 rebounds and 9.7 assists. That has him as the second best scorer in the league, pretty much the best three-point shooter in the league among those who have taken a reasonable number of shots, the third-best rebounder, and second in passing.
Jayson Tatum has long been a top ten player in the NBA, and probably pushing the top five for much of that time. But for all his talent, he has never been able to break into that absolute upper echelon occupied by the likes of Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and more recently Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Luka Doncic. Realistically that is probably still the case this season, but as the best player on the reigning champions and the team that most view as the best in the league, he was always going to get at least a little bit of MVP buzz.
Well this hasn’t taken long. We all know what the hype around Victor Wembanyama was prior to him entering the league last season – best prospect since LeBron if not better, a unicorn the likes of which we have never seen. An alien, even! As it turns out, that hype was all well and truly justified. At the age of 21 and less than a season and a half into his career, Wembanyama has already established himself as one of the best players in the league, and frighteningly, his scope for improvement is still absolutely enormous. His potential is basically limitless, and the player that he could be at the peak of his powers could very easily be something that we have never seen before. Of course, for the purpose of this season’s MVP award, we don’t care about what he could be – we care only about what he is. And while he is no doubt still a way behind the absolute best of the best, what he is currently is pretty damn good.
Up until a few months ago, Karl-Anthony Towns seemed destined to do what so few players do in the modern-day NBA and play out his career with the one franchise. But after nine years in Minnesota, he was stunningly traded to the Knicks on the eve of the season, a trade which Towns himself, to put it simply, did not want. But while he has not necessarily been renowned for his competitive nature over the course of his career, that trade appears to have ignited some sort of fire in the belly of the 29-year-old big man, because his first season in New York has to date been the best of his career. Towns took a few games to get going in his new colours, scoring more than 21 points just once in his first six games, but he has been fantastic since on a Knicks team which is currently pushing the Celtics for the best record in the East behind the Cavs.
There are a number of players currently defying Father Time in the NBA, chief among them the 40-year-old LeBron James, 36-year-old Stephen Curry, and 36-year-old Kevin Durant. None of them are at the absolute peak of their powers, but each is still contributing at an extremely high level and they all remain in the top 15-20 players in the NBA even this deep into their careers. Impressive as their feats are, they are all rank outsiders to even be considered for the MVP, but Durant is at the top of the trio as far as betting odds are concerned. More than a decade after he won the award, the Suns wing has had an injury-interrupted start to the season, but when he has been on the court he has been typically difficult to stop on offence.
