The MVP Award is the most coveted individual accolade in the NBA regular season, perhaps only the Finals MVP outstripping it overall – though that probably depends on who you ask. Regardless of how you rank those two, it’s a significant award and one that elevates the historical standing of whoever wins it. For much of history, the MVP was won virtually exclusively by American players, but the influx of international talent has been swift and for years now, that talent has had exclusive ownership of the award. In 2019, Giannis Antetokounmpo became just the fifth international player to win it in over 60 years of history, and that kickstarted a run of six consecutive MVPs which went to players from outside of the United States – three to Nikola Jokic, two to Giannis and one to Joel Embiid.
Those internationals entered the season once again the players to beat in 2024-25, with those three as well as Slovenian marvel Luka Doncic and Canadian Shai Gilgeous-Alexander the comfortable top five with NBA betting sites, though only a couple of weeks into the season things have already changed quite dramatically. For various reasons a couple of the aforementioned players have already slipped substantially in the betting, while names like Jayson Tatum, Anthony Edwards and Anthony Davis have thrown their hats into what is a very talented ring. Below, we take a look at each of their chances, as well as some of the players likely to be nipping at their heels.
It has seemed like a foregone conclusion that Luka Doncic will win at least one MVP – and very possibly more than that – during his career ever since he entered the league, but six seasons in he is still without one. Perhaps 2024/25 could be his year. The Slovenian was a finalist for the first time last season, having been likely just outside the top three many times prior, but ultimately finished third to Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. That was a pretty good indication of just how good the seasons of those two was, because Doncic averaged 33.9 points, 9.2 rebounds and 9.8 assists while leading his Mavericks to a season that nobody really expected out of them. Numbers are not everything and there is no denying the fact that he has a very high usage rate, but he hits those numbers with incredible efficiency given how lofty they are. Doncic is a fantastic facilitator, close to an unstoppable scorer, and a quality shooter – even though last year was the first that he actually hit a high percentage from three, given the difficulty and volume of those shots the 38.2% he managed in 2023/24 from long range is an impressive number.
If Tatum has been the biggest riser in the betting odds for the MVP award a couple of weeks into the season, Nikola Jokic’s drop-off in those odds has been one of the reasons why. He entered the year as a $4.60 second favourite to win what would be his fourth MVP in five seasons, but those odds have quickly nearly doubled to $7.50. Rather than being a product of any sort of slide in production for the Serbian marvel, however, that change is more of a product of Denver’s slow start to the season, and could very well be only a temporary rise in the odds – something which, of course, means there is a little bit of value about him. Jokic has done what he always does to start the season – in fact, his numbers are even better than usual, which is really saying something. Through the Nuggets’ first six games he averaged 29.8 points on 56.0% shooting (including 59.3% from three – obviously unsustainable but nonetheless impressive) as well as 12.3 rebounds and 9.8 assists. Those are ridiculous, clearly MVP level numbers, so for him to have drifted to nearly double his season-opening odds makes what is currently on offer for him to win mighty tempting. 
Anthony Davis has been at various points throughout his career been lauded as one of the best players in the league, and maligned as an overrated, injury prone waste of money, but after a really good 2023-24 season, he is looking set for perhaps the best season of what has already been a very good career at the ripe old age of 31. LeBron James continues to defy all logic by remaining one of the better players in the league at nearly 40, but Davis needs to be, as James has re-iterated for years, the dominant force on this team, and that is exactly how he’s playing early in the season. He scored at least 29 points in five of the Lakers’ first six games, shooting at least 48% from the floor in each of those games while also averaging 12.2 rebounds. It helps that he’s also one of the premiere defenders in the league, and while steals and blocks don’t always directly correlate to defensive impact, an average of 1.8 and 2.2 in those categories respectively are indicative of his efficacy at that end of the floor. 
Giannis Antetokounmpo has been the biggest drifter in MVP betting early in the season, basically swapping places with Tatum having entered the season at $7 before tripling out to $21 within the space of a fortnight. The main reason for that is the performance of the Bucks. They struggled mightily to start the season, losing five games in a row after opening with a win, with a couple of those losses coming in particularly disappointing fashion. The Giannis-Lillard experiment is not going at all to plan, and something clearly needs to change if this team is to compete at the top of the Eastern Conference like their talent suggests that they should be. But like many things in the NBA world, the public reaction to their struggles has been a little too swift. It’s a long, long season and they have time to turn things around, and if they do Giannis will, as he has been for years, be right in the mix for the MVP award. 
The odds start to balloon a little from here on in, and for good reason. With so many players who would probably be odds on favourites to win the MVP award in bygone eras, it’s an extremely tough conversation for others to put their name into. Jalen Brunson is one sitting just outside of legitimate MVP candidacy; no doubt a star of the league, but clearly not at the level of some of the above names. He is the best player on a Knicks team which is trying to establish themselves as the main contender in the Eastern Conference to the Celtics, and if they can do that it will be in no small part due to his performance. The diminutive guard is as crafty as anyone in the league, and like he did last year should average close to 30 points and six assists on good shooting percentages. 
