NBA 2024-25 Rookie of the Year (ROY) Winner Betting Preview – Odds, Tips & Predictions

After one of the highest quality battles for Rookie of the Year in recent memory last season, battled out between Victor Wembanyama and Chet Holmgren, the 2024-25 race is not quite living up to the high standards set by its predecessor. But while the quality of the rookies is not particularly high at all this season, the race is at least an intriguing one. Jared McCain leapt into odds on favouritism with a strong run of form, though he did look way too short even had he stayed healthy, and when he suffered a long-term injury it through this market into disarray. A new order has now been established headlined by Spurs’ guard Stephon Castle, and below we take a look at the chances of him and the next few players on the list.

Stephon Castle (San Antonio Spurs)

Stephon Castle has, in my view, been overs in this market for quite some time, even before McCain got injured. Unfortunately I cannot claim to have foreseen that injury, but even without it Castle would likely have continued to shorten as the season wore on, and with McCain out he has quickly jumped from a $7 third-favourite to a nearly odds-on favourite. And for good reason, too. Castle is not setting the world on fire but he is playing good solid basketball and has been putting up decent numbers ever since about eight games into the season. At the time of writing he is averaging 11.7 points (admittedly on poor shooting percentages), 2.6 rebounds and 3.9 assists, but those numbers are trending upwards – bearing in mind that he averaged less than 6 points, 2.5 rebounds and 2 assists in his first eight games. After that slow start, Castle was moved into the starting lineup and excelled with the added responsibility. Unfortunately he was sent back to the bench after he missed a game in mid-December, and with the Spurs actually boasting a little bit of depth now it’s difficult to know whether he will remain there, or return to the starting line-up. Regardless, he looks set to play around 25 minutes per game and potentially up to 30 or so if he does start, and should be able to put up some decent numbers in that time. It’s not shaping up as the kind of season that would win many Rookie of the Year races, but this incarnation of the race is a very slow one. Castle was a far better bet back when he was at closer to $10, even with McCain in the fray, but he unequivocally looks like the man to beat now.

Bet on Stephon Castle to win the Rookie of the Year Award at $2.40 with Unibet 

Yves Missi (New Orleans Pelicans)

Yves Missi has come from nowhere in the Rookie of the Year race, benefiting to an extent both from the dearth of really high-quality talent in this class, and the incredible list of injuries that the Pelicans have had to deal with this season and which have resulted him getting more minutes than he would have otherwise. The Belgian big man was the 21st pick in last season’s draft, but since just a few games into the season he has been starting most games and playing anywhere from 20-30 minutes – with that number trending upwards in recent games. He certainly has not been setting the world on fire, but he has been an okay player for a team that is really struggling, averaging 9.2 points, 8.5 rebounds and 1.2 blocks up until the time of writing. Those aren’t exactly mind-boggling stats, but if he does end up the season averaging a double-double in around 30 minutes per game, it could put him in the mix. Missi does not exactly profile as a superstar and there will likely be numerous players in this class who have better careers than he does, but he has established himself as an NBA level player and has done a decent job in a difficult role for a struggling team. A few big rebounding games lately and a couple of bigger scoring ones suggest he might have some room to boost his stats this season, too, and if he does he might be right in the mix for this award. But more than likely he will end the year with around a 9 or 10-point and 8 or 9-rebound average, so for him to win he would really need the likes of Castle and a couple of others to struggle for the rest of the year.

Bet on Yves Missi to win the Rookie of the Year Award at $3.50 with Unibet 

Dalton Knecht (Los Angeles Lakers)

Dalton Knecht has certainly had his moments this season. He has demonstrated that he has the capacity to be an elite shooter in this league, and flashes of work particularly in transition have shown that he is more than just that, with the ability to get to the rack and make simple enough plays off the dribble, too. He catapulted into this conversation when he scored 64 points in two games in mid-November, while a couple of 20-point games in a row at the end of that month added further to his growing portfolio. But even with McCain’s injury, Knecht’s odds have drifted. Those big games have been few and far between and there is a big gap between them and the rest, and after a number of quiet games in a row he has recently been shunted back to the bench and is playing a lot fewer minutes than he was a few weeks ago. His first seven games in December yielded just one in which he scored more than 6 points, and scoring aside he is not doing all that much else. That kind of output isn’t nearly enough to win the Rookie of the Year award, even in a class like this. His ability to get on a heater and score heavily means that Knecht is certainly capable of putting together some big stretches of scoring and if he gets his tail up over an extended stretch, he could get himself back in this conversation. What seems more likely, however, is a season off the bench in which he has a lot more single-figure scoring games than not, but in which he puts together a few streaky performances here and there. Knecht is drifting for a reason, and though he is a bit of a tough one to pick given his erratic scoring this season, he seems destined for a role on the Lakers which will make it really tough for him to compete for this award.

Bet on Dalton Knecht to win the Rookie of the Year Award at $6.00 with Unibet 

Zaccharie Risacher

Risacher was by no means a standout number one pick prior to the last draft. It’s certainly easy to see why he did go at that number – he’s got athletic ability in spades and can theoretically do a bit of everything at both ends of the floor – but while the Hawks are giving him every chance to blossom as a starter getting decent minutes, he has struggled thus far at the NBA level. Though he has had his moments, there is no denying the raw numbers; at the time of writing, the Frenchman is averaging 10.9 points per game on 39.7% shooting from the floor and 27.4% shooting from three-point range, as well as 3.4 rebounds and 1.2 assists. To put it kindly, that is not very good. He’s certainly not the first and will not be the last rookie to struggle to adapt at the top level, but regardless, nothing he has done so far this season suggests that he will be near the conversation for Rookie of the Year. His minutes have been fairly consistent on the Hawks and with undeniable talent, the scope for him to improve as the season wears on is certainly there, but equally, with the Hawks actually starting to play well they may decide to limit his minutes if his production continues to be as limited as inefficient as it has been to date. In a normal rookie year he would be nowhere near this conversation, but even in 2024-25 he would need a huge turnaround to be a chance of winning this award.

Bet on Zaccharie Risacher to win the Rookie of the Year Award at $9.00 with Unibet

Zach Edey (Memphis Grizzlies)

For a time earlier in the season, Zach Edey was the favourite for this award, with his seeming guarantee of good minutes at centre on the Grizzlies and potential to average a decent double-double looking likely to keep him among the favourites all season. But despite a decent start to life in the NBA, he fell out of the starting lineup in favour of a smaller lineup with Jaren Jackson Jr and Brandon Clarke in the front court, then suffered an injury which saw him sidelined for 12 games. That unsurprisingly saw him slide way down this list, though in his first game back he impressed with 13 points and 10 rebounds in 24 minutes to remind us not to forget about his prospects. Edey clearly has work to do having missed nearly half of the season in the lead-up to Christmas, but it is, of course, a very long season, and if he can avoid any other extended stints on the sideline, his recent 12-game absence will not seem nearly as significant by the end of the season as it does right now. Edey’s minutes are far from guaranteed on a team with plenty of frontcourt options, but when he has actually been on the floor he has arguably been the best-performed rookie this season to date. The 7’4” big man cannot be counted out just yet. If he plays well enough, he will force Taylor Jenkins to give him decent minutes, and if he gets those then he will give the Grizzlies plenty of production. At the time of writing he is averaging 11.3 points and 7.1 rebounds, but that’s in just 20 minutes per game. If he can get up to 25 or so and average close to a 15-point double-double, he could put his name in the mix, and at $13 looks like one outsider that is certainly worth considering.

Bet on Zach Edey to win the Rookie of the Year Award at $13.00 with Unibet

What a funny old race for the Rookie of the Year this one is. It’s undeniably not a very impressive class so far, and the injury to the one man who has really exceeded expectations in Jared McCain has thrown a huge spanner in the works. That has seen Castle shorten into comfortable favouritism, but even at relatively short odds he does look like a decent pick. Each of Missi, Knecht and Risacher is having seasons that really aren’t worthy of a Rookie of the Year and will only be genuine chances if Castle falters and no one else really puts their hands up, and I certainly wouldn’t be looking at any of them. In terms of longer odds outsiders, Edey looks like the best bet, with his recent injury seeing him balloon out to odds which look pretty juicy considering his capacity to put up solid numbers. At this stage, I’d still be looking at Castle as the way to go even at short odds, but if you’re after some value, Edey should be your man.

• The top pick has secured the Rookie of the Year award 5 times in the last 10 seasons.
• Forwards and centers (PF/C) have seen limited success in recent NBA ROY history, with only 5 victories in the past 20 seasons.
• In this century, only one Rookie of the Year winner (Malcolm Brogdon, 36th pick in 2016) was drafted outside the lottery.
• In 16 out of the last 20 seasons, the Rookie of the Year has been selected among the Top 5 picks.

Last 10 NBA ROY Winners: