NBA 2024-25 Rookie of the Year (ROY) Winner Betting Preview – Odds, Tips & Predictions

After one of the highest quality battles for Rookie of the Year in recent memory last season, battled out between Victor Wembanyama and Chet Holmgren, the 2024-25 race is not quite living up to the high standards set by its predecessor. But what it lacks in quality, it is more than making up for in intrigue. This market has been incredibly volatile this season, with the odds swinging wildly almost from week to week. That is probably inevitable given that no one is exactly having an otherworldly season – all it takes is a strong few games from one candidate for them to fly up the rookie rankings, and vice versa when a player hits a form slump. Zach Edey went from favouritism to seemingly out of contention after an injury, but he has flown back up the list and is now odds on to win it, while Stephon Castle has slipped after establishing himself as the favourite just a few weeks ago. Below, we take a look at the chances of the favourites as it currently stands – though the way things are going, the situation could be vastly different within a few days!

Zach Edey (Memphis Grizzlies)

Zach Edey entered the season as the favourite to win this award – albeit not by much – and it was easy to see why. He was predicted to slot straight into the Grizzlies’ starting centre role, and at 22 is more developed than plenty of his fellow rookies. He’s also 7’4” and pretty good. His start to the season was solid without being spectacular, but an injury in mid-November saw him miss almost a month of action and his odds balloon out as a result. In all he missed 12 games, but in a season in which no one is really putting their hand up to win this award, that is relatively easy to overcome if he plays at a high level. And since returning, he has. He is still not absolutely solidified in the starting lineup but is starting more often than not, and regularly scoring 10-15 points and close to 10 rebounds. He has given glimpses of what he is capable of with a couple of big games, too, most notably a 21-point, 16-rebound performance against the Raptors on Boxing Day, and a 25-point, 12-rebound, 4-block effort against the Grizzlies a month earlier. If Edey stays fit and healthy there is no reason he won’t continue to put up close to a double-double average, which may well be enough to win this award this season. But favouritism has been a poisoned chalice in this market so far this season. Edey hasn’t exactly put a huge gap on his competitors for Rookie of the Year, so while his favouritism at this point in time is justified, at odds-on to win it, he doesn’t look like great value.

Bet on Zach Edey to win the Rookie of the Year Award at $2.30 with Unibet 

Alexandre Sarr (Washington Wizards)

In a season like this, simply being on the floor for a decent number of minutes can be enough to get a player in the ROTY mix, and with Alexandre Sarr getting close to 30 minutes per game as the Wizards starting centre, that’s exactly what’s happened. The number two pick from the 2024 draft wasn’t exactly setting the world on fire over the first 20 or so games but his minutes have not waned, and unsurprisingly he has only been getting better with the exposure at the top level. At the time of writing, the Frenchman is averaging 12.1 points on not great shooting, 6.5 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 1.6 blocks per game, but in recent times his numbers have been far better. Through the four games surrounding New Year’s Eve, he scored at least 18 points three times, while he also grabbed at least 10 rebounds in two of those and 5 assists in a couple as well. Sarr is essentially Victor Wembanyama-lite – an athletic 7’2” centre with the potential to be a dominant defensive player who can shoot and potentially do a whole lot more than that offensively. Of course, there have been plenty of such players who have failed in the big league, but the Wizards would have to be happy with what Sarr has produced so far this season. He hasn’t always looked comfortable, but he is getting increasingly so, and that improvement bodes well for his chances in the Rookie of the Year race. There is no reason he can’t average something like 15 points, 8 rebounds and 3 assists to go with a couple of blocks per game for the rest of the season, and that would likely get him right in the mix for this award. With his apparent guarantee of good minutes and the fact that he is trending very much in the right direction from a form perspective, Sarr has turned himself into a decent value bet to win this award.

Bet on Alexandre Sarr to win the Rookie of the Year Award at $3.30 with Unibet 

Yves Missi (New Orleans Pelicans)

Rounding out the top three favourites for the 2024-25 Rookie of the Year is yet another centre, though Yves Missi entered the league with a lot less expectation than his fellow big men. The 21st pick in last year’s draft, Missi has benefited from the Pelicans’ ridiculous injury list, specifically the continued absence of Zion Williamson, in the place of whom he is playing regularly over 30 minutes per game. His output has not been phenomenal in most areas by any means; he does not get all that involved on offence and averages less than 10 points per game, but his athleticism and competitiveness has been on full show on the offensive glass. Though he only averages a little over 8 boards per game, nearly half of those have come at the offensive end of the floor, putting him right up there with the likes of Walker Kessler, Ivica Zubac, Domantas Sabonis and Jakob Poeltl as the best at it in the league. As the year wears on he is getting more minutes, too, and his production, while still relatively limited, is certainly improving, with his assist and block numbers also starting to look relatively good. Missi does not have the talent of either Edey or Sarr, but he is getting the most opportunity out of all of them. If Williamson ever returns, that will all change and he won’t likely stand much of a chance in this market, but if Zion remains off the court then Missi will likely continue to get good minutes. He’s not going to set the world on fire, so if he’s to win this award it will depend on this rookie class continuing to struggle, but with the minutes he’s getting he will at least be in the conversation. Given his relatively limited ceiling this season compared to some other candidates, however, he doesn’t look like the best value in the market by any means.

Bet on Yves Missi to win the Rookie of the Year Award at $6.00 with Unibet 

Jaylen Wells (Memphis Grizzlies)

Jaylen Wells certainly hasn’t set the world on fire in his rookie year, but he has been getting consistent minutes on a very good Grizzlies team, and that has to count for something. The versatile small forward is averaging 11.7 points per game and not all that much else, but he is shooting 44.7% from the floor and 38.3% from three-point range – neither of which is all that good relative to the league overall, but numbers that are a lot better than most other rookies who aren’t making their mark purely from within a couple of feet of the basket. He’s also demonstrated his explosive scoring ability with brilliant performances on a couple of occasions, most notably when he had 30 points against the Kings early in January on 11-16 shooting from the field and an incredible 8-9 from long range. Wells is not afraid of shooting and there is no reason to think that he won’t continue to take 10 or more shots most nights while playing close to 30 minutes, and if he can put in a few more performances like the above then he may be there or thereabouts in this market come season’s end. He’s been a bargain pick up for the Grizzlies, who selected him at pick 39 in last year’s draft, but while he has outperformed expectations and is in a weak rookie class, he’s not really doing enough at the moment even to win this year’s edition of the award. On a team with plenty of scoring options, it’s unlikely he’ll improve his numbers dramatically over the remainder of the year either, so even in the absence of many quality candidates this season, Wells probably won’t be winning the Rookie of the Year award.

Bet on Jaylen Wells to win the Rookie of the Year Award at $7.10 with Unibet

Stephon Castle (San Antonio Spurs)

A couple of months ago, Stephon Castle was at a little under $10 to win this award. That looked like value to me, and lo and behold he came in to outright favouritism within a few weeks with Edey absent through injury. Unfortunately, however, things have changed once again – as they are doing regularly this season! Castle was playing an important role as a starter for the Spurs, but the return of Jeremy Sochan has seen him shunted back to the bench. He has still been pretty productive in that role, but he’s just not getting nearly the minutes that he was and as a result is not putting up numbers that will be enough to win this award. Plenty see Castle, the 4th pick in last season’s draft, as one of the most talented players in this rookie class, and from a per 36-minute perspective he has been just about as good as anyone. The main issue is his minutes, or lack thereof. If there is an injury to anyone in the starting lineup of the Spurs other than Wembanyama, Castle could very easily be the man to replace them, and if that happens then he will very possibly provide as much production as any other rookie in the league. Obviously we do not want to bank on an injury, but that in itself is reason enough to see him as a bit of value. But Castle also has the potential to perform at a level off the bench which forces the hand of the coaching staff and results in more than the 15-20 minutes per game that he is currently getting. Castle easily has the potential to win this award, he simply needs to get the minutes to do so. That may not happen, but given his ceiling, he looks like a much better bet than, as an example, Jaylen Wells or even Yves Missi.

Bet on Stephon Castle to win the Rookie of the Year Award at $9.00 with Unibet

This is about as tough a players’ award market as there is this season, with the odds chopping and changing every other day courtesy of the relatively low level of play from this season’s rookie class. Of course, that does open up the door for a little bit of value, though actually finding it is another question entirely. Because of how many changes there have been in this market I would be loathe to bet on a favourite purely because, based on how the season has played out so far, they may very well not be favourite for long. One player who has fluctuated as much as nearly anyone and who now may present decent value is Stephon Castle. He came into relatively short-priced favouritism a few weeks ago but has ballooned back out due to a decrease in minutes, but he’s recently been thrown back into the starting lineup and his time on the floor appears to be on a slight increase. If that continues, he is more than capable of putting up the numbers required to win this year’s Rookie of the Year award, and at $9.00 he looks like the best value on the board.

• The top pick has secured the Rookie of the Year award 5 times in the last 10 seasons.
• Forwards and centers (PF/C) have seen limited success in recent NBA ROY history, with only 5 victories in the past 20 seasons.
• In this century, only one Rookie of the Year winner (Malcolm Brogdon, 36th pick in 2016) was drafted outside the lottery.
• In 16 out of the last 20 seasons, the Rookie of the Year has been selected among the Top 5 picks.

Last 10 NBA ROY Winners: