NBA Expert Tips and Best Bets | March 6

Nine games will take place across the NBA on Wednesday, with highlights across the day including a Celtics vs Cavaliers clash which could easily be a preview of the Eastern Conference Semi-Finals or even Finals, and a Suns vs Nuggets game which has the same potential in the West. The value kicks off early with a rare underdog line bet, before a couple of good value player props round out some of the best bets for the day. Check them out below.  

Hornets +8.5 | $1.90 with GetSetBet 

As their 15-46 record would suggest, the Hornets aren’t a great team, but they’re not as bad as many probably think. Even with Lamelo Ball out for an extended period they have remained relatively competitive in most games, and though they are losing a lot more often than they win, they also haven’t often been blown out for more than a month when they’re playing basically anyone except for the Bucks. In their past 13 games, they’ve only lost one game against anyone other than Milwaukee by more than the line of 8.5 set by betting sites for this game. Admittedly, there have been three of those losses to the Bucks, but the Magic are not the Bucks and in nine of their other ten matches in that time they’ve either won or lost by a close margin. What’s more, neither the Magic nor the Hornets are particularly high-scoring teams, with the over/under for this game set at a very low 208.5. The Magic have also struggled mightily on the road this year – while they’re an impressive 21-8 in Orlando, their record away from home is a comparatively dismal 14-18. That’s not to say that the Hornets will win this game, but in what will likely be a low-scoring affair they should be able to at the very least keep it closer than the 8.5-point line. 

Alperen Sengun under 5.5 assists | $2.12 with BlueBet 

It’s not often that I take an under, and particularly one related to a player I enjoy watching as much as Sengun, but the Rockets are playing their offence through him less and he’s getting fewer assists as a result. NBA betting sites, however, haven’t quite adjusted enough to the change, and the result is what looks like a really good value under. Sengun is an excellent passing big man, but even over the season he averages 4.9 dimes per game, which makes the under 5.5 at over $2 look pretty juicy. For quite a while now, however, his numbers have been even lower than that. Just once in his past six games has he had more than four assists, and on that occasion he had six, just sneaking over this line. Going back even further, for the past 11 games he hasn’t had more than six. That’s a pretty extended run of being either under or, worst case, just barely over this number. He’s also going to be playing against a guy called Victor Wembanyama who, if you’ve watched, you’ve probably noticed has pretty long arms and will make it pretty hard for Sengun to do what he wants to with ball in hands as a result. To me this line should probably be at 4.5, and it certainly shouldn’t be substantially shorter odds for him to go over as opposed to under. This looks like one of the better bets on the board for the day. 

Luka Doncic to record a triple-double | $3.00 with PlayUp 

We will end with a longer odds value selection, but one which based on recent form should probably be closer to even money than the $3 or more you can get with it with some betting agencies. Luka Doncic has averaged close to a triple-double for years, but at the moment he is on a streak of them and appears very well placed to continue that trend against the Pacers. Against the Sixers in his last outing, he put up 38-11-10 for what was his third consecutive TD, having also got there in his previous two games against first the Raptors and then the Celtics. What’s more, in two of his three games before that, he was just one rebound shy of achieving the feat and got to double-figure assist numbers pretty easily. That makes it three triple doubles in a row and five of six games in which he’s been within a single stat of getting there, which makes these odds pretty juicy. Making this bet even more enticing is the fact that the Mavericks are playing against the Pacers. Indiana has certainly not been the historically high scoring team that they have been for so long this season, but they still generally play pretty fast-paced games. With the line set at 246.5 total match points there should be plenty of assist opportunities for Doncic, while the breakneck speed at which these teams will likely play will also present lots of chances for rebounds, of which he should snare plenty. Over the course of the entire 2023/24 season, these odds are pretty reasonable for Doncic to record a triple double, but the way he has been playing lately combined with the matchup against the Pacers, they look very generous.