NBA Expert Tips and Best Bets | June 7

The NBA Finals are here, and while the Eastern Conference winner is, as everyone expected all season long, the Boston Celtics, few expected it to be the Dallas Mavericks who came out of the West. The Nuggets have been viewed throughout the season as easily the best chance of matching it with what is an extremely talented starting five for the Celtics, but they were knocked out in the Conference Semis by an impressive Timberwolves team – who were subsequently beaten comprehensively by the Mavericks. Boston will deservedly enter this series as favourites, but the Mavericks will have the best player in the series and the way they have been playing, are capable of causing a stir. Below, we take a look at our best bets for Game 1 of the series.  

Celtics -6.5 @ $1.91 | GetSetBet 

It’s hard to ignore just how impressive the Mavericks have been throughout the course of these playoffs, knocking off the Clippers, Thunder and then the Timberwolves since the postseason began. Even more difficult to ignore, however, is the fact that the Celtics have lost just five games on their home court all year. The most talented starting five in the league went 37-4 at TD Garden throughout the course of the regular season, and that form has by and large continued into the playoffs. They somewhat randomly lost Game 2 of their First Round series at home against the Heat, but they won their other three home games in that series by an average of more than 26 points. A similar trend emerged against the Cavs in the Conference Semis; they lost Game 2 at home of that series two, but won their other two games in Boston by 25 and 15 points. Finally, against the Pacers they needed just a couple of home games in what ended up being a sweep, winning the first in overtime and then the second comfortably by 16 points. The Mavericks are playing really well and with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving on the floor anything can happen, but there is no denying how hard it is to stop the Celtics on their home court. With Kristaps Porzingis set to return and give them a full roster to choose from, they can kick off the series on a positive note with a solid win. Certainly don’t expect a blowout, but the home side should be able to cover the line set by betting sites in Game 1. 

Over 214.5 total match points @ $1.89 | BlueBet 

It’s not uncommon in big games for it to become a whole lot more difficult to get buckets, and final scores often end up being lower throughout the playoffs than they might be in the regular season. Still, the match points total set by NBA betting sites for this series opener looks too low. Of course, nerves play a big role throughout the NBA Finals and are probably particularly rife in Game 1, but that hasn’t proven to have too big of an impact on scoring in recent years, with the opening game of the Finals yielding less than 214 points just once since 2017. Maybe that’s not entirely relevant given that these two teams haven’t been playing against one another in those series, but the recent history between the two of them suggests that there is plenty of margin for their respective defences to tighten up and this game still to go past the points total. The first time they met this season yielded 229 points, while the second time they hit 248 courtesy of a Celtics onslaught, so it would take a big regression from those numbers for this over to fail to hit. There will be a lot of good defensive players on the floor, particularly for the Celtics, but with Doncic, Irving, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown out there to name just a few, there is plenty of scoring capacity too. In the playoffs these two teams’ offensive ratings sit at 119.6 for the Celtics and 115.2 for the Mavericks, both very solid numbers, and if they play with anything close to that offensive potency then this game should cover the 214.5-point line relatively comfortably.

Celtics -2.5 first quarter line @ 1.87 | PlayUp 

Clearly in the first quarter there is a lot more scope for variance than there is over the course of the full 48 minutes, but nonetheless this looks like a sound bet given how these two teams have performed in first quarters during the playoffs. The Celtics have been dominant early in games so far this postseason, in their 14 games to date putting up a first quarter offensive rating of 123.7 and a first quarter defensive rating of just 108.4 for a net first quarter rating of 15.3 (meaning they outscore their opponents by 15.3 points per 100 possessions in first quarters). The Mavericks, meanwhile, have tended to come out of the blocks really slowly. Despite boasting a 12-5 record in the playoffs, they have a negative net rating in first quarters, with a defensive rating of 111.5 and an offensive rating of just 107.8 – nearly 8 points less than their overall offensive rating in the playoffs. That doesn’t bode particularly well for their ability to start this series off well. Granted, as mentioned, a first quarter is just 12 minutes of play and really anything can happen – Doncic, for example, could go off for 20 points in it as he did a couple of games ago and ruin this entire bet. But the law of averages would suggest that, based on how they have each been performing early in games, the Celtics should be able to come out of the gates strongly and open up a lead heading into the first break. Particularly with an intimidating home crowed behind them, they can start this game on a positive note, as they have been doing throughout the playoffs, and win the opening quarter by at least three points.