NBA Expert Tips and Best Bets | Nov 7

After a day off for the US Election, the NBA returns on Thursday, Australia time, with a big 12 game slate which will involve all but six of the league’s teams. And there are plenty of interesting games among them, too; early in the day we get a repeat of the 2022 finals when the Celtics host the Warriors, while later in the day the Cavaliers head to New Orleans to take on the Pelicans, the Grizzlies host the Lakers, and in the game of the day, the Thunder head to Denver to take on the Nuggets. Below, we take a look at three of the best bets that we have sussed out for the day’s action.

Celtics -7.5 | $1.87 with QuestBet

The Celtics covering the line has helped to make us a bit of dough so far this season, and why not keep following a winning formula. Just a couple of seasons ago, the Warriors knocked off the Warriors to win their fourth championship in the modern era, but since then it’s safe to say that things have changed fairly significantly. Klay Thompson is now in Dallas, and while Steph Curry is still being Steph Curry and Draymond Green is still, well, around, this baton is gradually being passed to the new generation. The Celtics, meanwhile, are the best team in the league by some margin after winning last year’s championship in a canter, and they have shown that they are once again the team to beat so far this season. They have won seven of their first eight games, and most of those they have won easily. They are coming off a 30-point win over the Hawks a couple of days ago, and of their seven wins this season only one of them has come by less than ten points. Despite that, the line for this game has been set at just 7.5 by NBA betting sites. Granted the Warriors have been solid to start the year and look like having a decent crack at making the postseason, and granted the Celtics haven’t had the toughest fixture to start the season. But they have still faced a couple of good teams in the Knicks and the Bucks – even if the Bucks have struggled to start the year – and they beat them by 23 and 11 points respectively. There have only been a couple of games in which the Celtics have been challenged so far this season, and they look capable of beating most teams by double figure margins without breaking into too much of a sweat. Particularly with Curry only in his second game back from injury, the Celtics are well placed here to rack up yet another comfortable victory, and cruise past the line set by betting sites.

Anthony Davis to score 30+ points | $1.96 with PlayUp

Anthony Davis has been a hard man to trust over the course of his career courtesy largely of injury, but also due to what has often been perceived as inconsistent effort on his part. To an extent that is unfair – he has been a brilliant player when fit and played a pivotal role in the Lakers’ 2020 championship, but it has at times been true that his aggressiveness, particularly on offence, has waxed and waned a little at times during his career. That has not been the case this season. He has come out of the blocks like the dominant player which he has always been capable of being, taking a step forward after an uncharacteristically consistent 2023-24 season both in terms of availability and performance. He started the season with 36 points and 16 rebounds against the best defence in the business in the Timberwolves, and has not looked back since. Through seven games, Davis is averaging 32.6 points on 57.1% shooting to go with 11.7 rebounds, 3.0 assists and his typically elite defence, but for the purpose of this game we are focusing on the points. Davis has surpassed the 30-point number five times in his seven games this season, so odds on looks like good value for him to do it again. What’s more, he will be coming up against rookie Zach Edey. Edey is a potentially really good defender and player overall and had by far his best game yet in the big league in his last outing, putting up a 25-point double-double with four blocks, but prior to that he had been struggling, with fouling as well as some general struggles resulting in him playing limited minutes. He and Jay Huff have been sharing the load at centre, and while they both do have some ability, Davis’ 12 years of experience, incredible talent and elite form should see him having a major impact on this game. He’s been really aggressive offensively virtually every night this season, and there is no reason to think he won’t do that once again this game and pass the 30-point mark for the sixth time in eight games.

Thunder -6.5 | $1.90 with Unibet

The masses are jumping off the Nuggets thick and fast to start the season, with a slow start to the season having many questioning whether they have enough support surrounding Nikola Jokic to once again challenge for the title. Jamal Murray being out certainly doesn’t help, which he will be for this game as he remains in concussion protocol. The Thunder have had no such problems. After skyrocketing into contention last season, this prodigiously talented young roster was widely expected to take yet another step forward in 2024-25, and the early signs are that they have done exactly that. They have been simply dominant to start the season, and as it stands are one of just two undefeated teams in the league, the other being the Cleveland Cavaliers. But it’s not just the fact that they have been winning that has been impressive; it has been the nature of those victories. The Thunder have won all seven of their games by at least 12 points, for an average winning margin of an incredible 17.2 points. They haven’t had the toughest fixture so far, but they have beaten some solid teams in that time, knocking off the Magic by 16 points in their latest outing, and perhaps most impressively, the Nuggets by 15 points in the season-opener. That was in Denver, too, where the Nuggets are historically a much better team, so back in Oklahoma City there is no reason to expect the Thunder will not once again win this one relatively easily. I’m not one of those jumping on the Nuggets’ back and expect them to be right up towards the top of the Western Conference later in the season, but as of right now the gap between the two is significant, particularly with Murray out. Jokic will have to carry a massive load in this game, and though he is as capable of anyone in the world of beating a team like the Thunder all on his own, the depth of talent across these two teams is vastly different, and so are their form lines. Everything points to a comfortable Thunder win here, and they should be able to cover the 6.5 point line reasonably comfortably.