NBA Expert Tips and Best Bets | Nov 8

After a huge 12-game slate the day prior, things will quieten down in the NBA for the last day of the working week in Australia. Just three games are scheduled for Friday, all kicking off at midday AEDT. It’s not a particularly interesting trio of games, with the Bulls hosting the Timberwolves, the Spurs taking on the Trail Blazers in San Antonio, and the Jazz heading to Milwaukee to face the Bucks, but fortunately for us, the quality of the games – or lack thereof – doesn’t necessarily have anything to do with whether we can find any value. Below, have a look at our three best bets for the day’s action.

Bulls under 110.5 total points | $1.88 with QuestBet

The Bulls are not a particularly talented offensive team. They have some decent offensive players, but things haven’t been working in Chicago for a while now and even with a few changes in the off-season to key personnel, they are not exactly going to be leading league in offensive efficiency this season. They have admittedly put up a few big scores early in the season – 133 against the Bucks, 126 against the Grizzlies and 126 against the Jazz – but those numbers have masked the grim reality that their offensive rating is the third worst in the league. That their total scores don’t look all that bad on paper is a product primarily of the fact that they have been playing at a pace of 106.19 possessions per game, easily the highest in the league and an unsustainable rate – an early season outlier which will soon correct itself. The Timberwolves, meanwhile, were last season the best defensive team in the league by some margin, and there is no reason to think that they won’t be once again in 2024-25. Certainly they made a couple of major changes in the off-season, but losing Karl-Anthony Towns isn’t exactly going to be hugely detrimental to their defence, while the addition of Donte DiVincenzo brings another tenacious guard/wing defender into the mix. They haven’t been quite as stifling to start the season as they were last year, but the season is young and in their last game, that defensive prowess which so defined them last year was back in spades as they held the Hornets to just 93 points. Putting all those numbers, stats and trends aside, the equation here is simple – the Timberwolves are a brilliant defensive team, and the Bulls are a pretty shoddy offensive one. The 110.5-point line set by betting sites does not suggest as much. Coming off a 99-point effort against a far inferior defensive team in the Mavericks, the Bulls will likely just inch their way into triple figures if they get there at all in this one, and the 110.5-point line should be pretty safe.

Under 218.5 total match points | $1.88 with PlayUp

In an uninspiring slate of games, this is probably the least interesting of them all, with a couple of the worst teams in the West going head to head in San Antonio. If it weren’t for Victor Wembanyama there would be a serious lack of talent in this game, but even with him on the floor there is not a whole lot of reason to be particularly excited about this game. To put it plainly, these are two bad offensive teams. At this early stage of the season, the Trail Blazers rank 25th in the league in offensive efficiency, scoring just 108.9 points per 100 possessions. Don’t expect that to change much, either – last year they scored 107.6 points per 100 possessions over their 82 games, good for second last in the league. And the Spurs, at least so far this season, are even worse. The team that was bottom five in offensive efficiency last year brought the experience of Chris Paul across in the hope that it would unlock even more of this young roster’s talent – or more specifically, that of Wemby. Maybe it will help, but it’s safe to say that some growing pains are evident. Though they have picked up a couple of nice wins, the offence of this team has been unimpressive – worse even than that of the Blazers. They are ranked fourth last in the league for offensive rating at 106.2, and it’s easy to see why when you look at their roster. This game does not exactly shape up as a shootout. The Spurs’ last game went over the 218.5-point total set by NBA betting sites, but none of their six prior did, while four of the last five Blazers games have gone under it too. Offence has been a struggle for both of these teams so far this season, which suggests that we could be in for a low-scoring affair in San Antonio.

Under 230.5 total match points | $1.90 with Unibet

The Bucks desperately need a win and have a great opportunity to get one against the worst performing team in the league to date; well, the worst performing alongside themselves- they are both sitting at 1-6, one in line with expectations, the other not so much. But Giannis Antetokounmpo sat out last game with an adductor strain and is questionable for this one, making it really difficult to get a gauge on how this game will play out. The Bucks should be able to get the job done regardless, but the line will change substantially depending on whether he plays or not, so with that in mind we are going to focus on the total instead. Obviously this is impacted to some extent by Giannis’ presence or absence, but a lot less so than the line, and if Antetokounmpo is there, while he will obviously boost the offensive of the Bucks he will also boost their defence and the match total line probably won’t change much, if at all, with most betting agencies. The thinking here, basically, is that neither of these teams has been particularly potent on offence, and in general both of their games have been going below this line. The Jazz, in fact, have the worst offence in the league by some margin at this point in the season with a paltry offensive rating of 102.5, and though they have conceded some big scores, their games have been going below this game’s line more often than not. That wasn’t the case last game while the game before was right around the number, but their four games prior to that all saw 213 points or fewer scored. The Bucks, meanwhile, have played in five consecutive games with less than 231 points scored, and even if a couple have been close, that is some compelling evidence. Basically, these two teams are struggling offensively and going under this total – often well under – a lot more often than not, so bring them together and you have a good recipe for another under.