NBA Expert Tips and Best Bets | Nov 9

The NBA will take its first day off of the season on Wednesday, the 8th of November Australia time, to encourage people to vote on Election Day. That means that the following day will see a huge slate of games which will include 24 of the 30 teams in the league, offering up plenty of opportunity to find some value. Below, we take a look at three of the best bets to take place on Thursday this week. 

Under 235.5 total match points |$1.90 @ BlueBet  

The Cavaliers and the Thunder are two of the more exciting young teams in the NBA, but the total match points line for this game is set too high. Cleveland is a defensive minded team, as evidenced by the fact that they led the league in defensive rating last season, conceding just 109.9 points per 100 possessions. This season hasn’t been much different to date; they’ve had a couple of games in the high 230s against the frisky Pacers, but none of their other four games have surpassed 227 total points and a couple of them have been significantly under that. Rarely will they play a game that goes over this total, and OKC are a relatively middle of the road teams in terms of total points scored for and against. They’ve had a couple of really high scoring games in a row, but none of their first five games of the season saw more than 236 points scored. Importantly, they’ve already played the Cavaliers, and that game resulted in just 213 points. There is plenty of space for this to be a higher scoring game than that one was and still go under this total, making the under 235.5 total match points a great bet. 

Over 228.5 total match points | $1.90 @ PlayUp 

This is another points total which looks a little off, largely because of the Bucks’ propensity to put up a score. They’ve been a good scoring team for a long time, and this season the acquisition of Damian Lillard means that they have the ability to be one of the best offenses in the business. There have been some very evident growing pains early, but their offense has certainly begun to show some flashes, and perhaps more importantly for this bet they’re also conceding big numbers. The Pistons aren’t exactly the team most likely to capitalise on that, but their games have seen at least 226 points scored three times in a row. The Bucks, meanwhile, have played in five games which have seen at least 236 points scored – they’ve played just six. All signs point to this one going over, meaning the over 228.5 total match points looks a good tip. 

Miami Heat to win outright | $2.02 @ GetSetBet

The Grizzlies have struggled mightily early in the season in the absence of their star point guard Ja Morant, losing their first six games – a couple of them by hefty margins and a couple of others against teams that may not win a lot of games this season. They finally got off the mark in game number seven, but a 12-point win over the Trail Blazers shouldn’t get anyone in Memphis too excited. Despite that, they enter this game against the Heat as favourites – in my view, unjustifiably so. The Heat also had their issues to start the season, losing four of their first five, but they’ve got back on track with a couple of wins, including one against the Lakers. They’re a well-oiled machine that has been playing together for a number of years and made the NBA Finals just last season – even if that belied their form throughout the course of the regular season – and against a Ja Morant-less Grizzlies team, they should be favourites. As a result, they look like great value at $2.02 to win this game outright.