NBA Expert Tips and Best Bets | Nov 13

The newly named Emirates NBA Cup – formerly known as the In-Season Tournament – kicks off on Wednesday Australia time, with eight games set to kick it off over the course of the day. A quick refresher – these games still count towards each team’s regular season record, but there is a little added incentive with wins also counting towards the in-season tournament. Our day of betting kicks off when the Hornets head to Orlando to face a Magic team which has been playing really well in the absence of Paolo Banchero thanks in no small part to Franz Wagner, while our later bets focus on the Suns knocking off the Jazz comfortably, and Paul George continuing his facilitatory ways for the Sixers against the Knicks. Take a look at our three best bets of the day below.

Franz Wagner over 24.5 points | $1.85 with PlayUp

With Paolo Banchero out for a reasonably long period of time, Franz Wagner has been forced to step up for the Orlando Magic, and so far, he is doing a pretty damn good job of it. That’s no great surprise – Wagner is really talented and has played a major role in the Magic’s ascent up the Eastern Conference standings, and after a slightly slow start to life as his team’s number one option, he has grown rapidly into the role. Wagner is being significantly more aggressive on offence, in each of his last three games taking at least 18 shots – and that’s having played relatively limited minutes in the past two of them courtesy of blowout wins for his team. He has scored 28, 27 and 23 points in those three games, but those numbers belie how well he has really played. The 28-point performance came in a full game against the Pacers in which he played 39 minutes, but against the Pelicans he scored his 27 points in just 32 minutes, while last game against the Wizards, he had 23 points with minutes still to go in the third quarter. With the Magic up by a long way though – thanks in no small part to his efforts – he was not required for the rest of the game. In other words, had Wagner played even some of the last quarter he would almost certainly have flown past the 24.5-point line set for him in this game by betting sites. The Magic are expected to win this game against the Hornets, but the line is at only 6.5, so it’s relatively unlikely that Wagner will once again not be required in the final quarter. Based on how well he has been scoring of late, anything close to a full game should be more than enough to see him cruise past this line.

Suns -3.5 | $1.88 with QuestBet

Kevin Durant is out for at least a couple of weeks for the Suns, and there is no denying how significant his absence is. But the Suns are not exactly short on options to fill in for him offensively. This is one of the most talented offensive teams in the league, led – behind Durant – by Devin Booker, while Bradley Beal is more than capable of playing a larger offensive role than what he typically has for the Suns. Prior to Durant’s injury they had been one of the best performed teams in the league to start the season, boasting an 8-1 record after nine games, and lo and behold they lost their second of the year in Durant’s first game out. But that was not exactly a sign that they are no good without him. The Suns were playing a pretty solid Kings team, and that game went to overtime. As expected, Booker stepped up with 12 assists, while Beal had a season-high 28 points. They are a worse team without Durant, no doubt, but they are still a playoff-calibre side, something which certainly cannot be said for their opponent on Wednesday. The Jazz are coming off a one-point win over the Spurs, but that was just their second victory for the season. By and large they have struggled immensely, with the mish-mash roster of reasonable but not all that good players which scraped its way to 31 wins last season really struggling so far this year. Despite all of that, the Suns are only relatively slight favourites for this game. With Durant this would likely be a double-figure line, but in his absence NBA betting sites appear to have this pegged as a nearly 50-50 battle. That should not be the case. The Suns are still a much better team, and even on the road should have no problems disposing of a very mediocre Utah Jazz.

Paul George over 4.5 assists | $2.05 with Unibet

Injuries have wreaked havoc with the Sixers season to date, with Joel Embiid and Paul George absent for the first few games. George returned a few games ago, and lo and behold Tyrese Maxey subsequently injured his hamstring, leaving George to run the show on offence. Against the Knicks, Joel Embiid will return, giving the Sixers, once again, two-thirds of their Big Three. Embiid’s presence will drastically change the way that they play and a lot of their offence will go through him even in his first game back, though he will likely be on a minutes restriction. But whether he is there or not, Paul George will have the ball in his hands as a facilitator a lot more than he would if Maxey were playing. So far, that has been palpable from a statistical perspective; in George’s first two games of the season, in which Maxey played, he had 2 and then 4 assists. In the two games since without Maxey, George has had 8 and 9 assists. Clearly he is playing an entirely different role, but betting agencies have not really adjusted, setting his assists line for this game at just 4.5. Embiid being back does admittedly mean the ball will be out of George’s hands a little more than it has been the last two games, but nonetheless he will be operating essentially as a point guard and should again be looking at six assists or more. In fact, having a crack at 6+ or even 8+ assists for a lot more value would not be an unreasonable move, but purely because of the uncertainty that Embiid’s return brings with it, we are going to play it a little more safe and stick with the 4.5 assists. Regardless, with the ball in his hands plenty, George should be again picking up at least five assists, and potentially quite a few more than that.