NBA Expert Tips and Best Bets | Dec 13

After a couple of days of NBA Cup quarterfinal action, normal transmission resumes in the NBA tomorrow with three regular old games. They are not exactly thrillers; the Heat host the Raptors to tip things off, before the Celtics host the Pistons and the Pelicans host the Kings. But no thrillers does not equal no value. We have still managed to suss out what we think are some decent bets, and you can take a look at each of them below.

Heat -10.5 | $1.88 with QuestBet

The Heat are, all of a sudden, absolutely humming. Their season has been an indifferent one to date, but over the past three games they have found their best form of it yet. They have won each of those games, but it isn’t just the fact that they have been winning which is impressive – it’s how, and against whom, they have been doing it. They started out by beating the Lakers by a casual 41 points, while their last two victories have come by ten points against the Suns and nine points against the Cavaliers, two very capable teams. All of those wins have come at home, where the Heat have been a better team all season; while they have a -2.6 net rating on the road, that is way up at +5.9 at home. The Raptors, meanwhile, have been playing reasonably of late – though they have lost three in a row, the last two have been close ones to good teams in the Knicks and Mavericks. But all those losses have come at home, and the Raptors’ struggles – which currently see them sitting second last in the Eastern Conference with a 7-18 record – are substantially worse on the road. While they have a relatively respectable 6-7 record at home – and that’s after three losses in Toronto in succession – the Raptors have a woeful 1-11 record away from home, a road record better only than the Pelicans. So while they haven’t been playing all that badly, expect the Raptors to struggle in their first game outside of Toronto for well over a week, particularly against a Heat team in some hot form playing on a home court at which they are increasingly turning into something of a fortress. The Heat should have no problems picking up a win here, and should be able to cover the admittedly hefty line set by NBA betting sites.

Celtics -12.5 | $1.90 with Unibet

We continue on in a similar vein here with another bet for a hot home town favourite to win big. The Celtics currently sit in 2nd spot in the Eastern Conference Standings behind the Cavaliers, but they are the red-hot favourites to win this season’s championship after doing so last season without seeming to get out of second gear. They don’t need to be playing at their absolute best just yet and certainly are not, but they are still winning a lot more than they are losing, and generally doing so comfortably. The reigning champs have won seven of their last nine games, and of those wins just one of them has come by less than nine points. The Pistons, meanwhile, have actually proven themselves to be a pretty plucky young team this season and appear to have some chance of giving themselves an outside shot at making the playoffs. But as with most young teams, consistency has proven a little bit of an issue. Though they are coming off a very impressive win over the Knicks, they lost their three previous games by at least 10 points and have lost three of their last six games by at least 15. When they lose, they have a tendency to lose big, and they have been doing that plenty of late, even if they have mixed a couple of good wins in there too. One of those recent defeats was at the hands of the Celtics in Boston and came by ten points – less than the line set for this game by betting sites, but the Celtics were leading that game by 15 by the first break and the same margin after three quarters, only to allow the Pistons to sneak back to ten by the end of the game. Therein lies the major problem with a bet like this – the Celtics might be easily capable of covering this line, but there is always the prospect of a backdoor cover once they take their foot off the gas. But given how regularly the Pistons have been losing by more than this number, virtually even money for them to do so against the best team in the business on their own home floor looks like solid value.

Kings over 118.5 total match points | $1.85 with PlayUp

The logic here is pretty simple; the Kings offence is absolutely humming at the moment, while the Pelicans are giving up plenty of points. Let’s start with Sacramento. Admittedly it’s a small sample size, but they have been absolutely dominant over the past two games, putting up at least 140 points in each of them. Those sort of numbers haven’t been the norm for them, but they have still been scoring solidly for a few games now, with four of their last five totals being at least 120 points – over the line set for them for this game against the Pelicans, who have been giving up big totals virtually every game. New Orleans are a little hard to get a handle on given how many injuries they have had and the fact that their team has subsequently been changing quite drastically from week to week, but regardless of their lineup they have been conceding relatively big totals every game. In fact, the Pelicans have now conceded at least 118 points in seven consecutive games. That does not bode particularly well for a team which has the sixth best offensive rating over the course of the season at 116.3, and who over the last five games is leading the league comfortably in that metric with an enormous offensive rating of 126.9. Both of these teams play at a relatively average pace so there won’t necessarily be an inordinate number of offensive possessions for the Kings to score with, but they should be getting the ball in the bucket with a great deal of efficiency. Their tail is flying high at the minute after a couple of phenomenal offensive performances in a row, and up against a very leaky Pelicans’ defence they should be able to put up a big total and surpass the line set by betting agencies.