NBA Expert Tips and Best Bets | Jan 15

Seven games will take place across the NBA on Wednesday, the first group of which kicks off at 10am AEDT when the Cavaliers host the Pacers, and the Sixers host the Thunder. The second of those will see our first bet of the day with a prop on a player cast into a new role as the result of injuries, before we follow that up with another player prop on one of the league’s best, and round out our best bets of the day with a line bet in the Nuggets vs Mavericks game. Take a look at all of our reasoning below.

Paul George to get 8+ rebounds @ $2.50 with PlayUp

Paul George has made no secret that he’s not particularly fond of the current role that he’s playing with the Sixers. It’s certainly not by design that he’s playing essentially as a centre, with injuries to both Joel Embiid and Andre Drummond forcing the team to play a lot smaller than they otherwise would. George called the role ‘boring’, but he’s done a reasonable job at it, and the most notable byproduct of it has been, unsurprisingly, an uptick in rebounding. For the season, he averages 6 per game – right around his career average – but with a lot less size on the floor he has been forced to do a lot more work under the glass than he normally would in recent times, and that has seen him pick up 9, 11 and 10 rebounds in his last three games. NBA betting sites have adjusted his odds very slightly – he is even money to get over 6.5 rebounds per game, slightly ahead of his season average. But the difference in his rebounding numbers is much more dramatic than that in reality. Both Embiid and Drummond swallow up rebounds like they’re going out of fashion, and their absence invariably means the numbers of the smaller players on the court goes up. With George standing at 6’8” and with a near 7’0” wingspan, he is one of the first candidates to expend a little more energy on the glass. As long as the Sixers’ two centres remain off the court, he will likely be required to do more rebounding, and realistically his numbers during that time will probably hover around 8 or 9 rather than the 6.5 that betting agencies have him pegged for. This change in role opens up the door for a lot of value, and now is the time to strike before his odds get adjusted.

Devin Booker over 7.5 assists @ $1.90 with Unibet

Devin Booker has been one of the most consistent high-level players in the NBA for a number of seasons now, but so far in 2024-25 he has failed to reach the lofty standards he has set for himself. He’s playing virtually exactly the same role and his usage has not changed, but his points are down more than two per game because, basically, his shots just aren’t going in as often – he’s shooting just 43.7% from the field and 33.7% from three-point range. But over the past few games, his confidence appears to be returning, and not just in the way he is shooting. Booker has managed 30 or more points in three of his last four games, so we certainly toyed with the points over, but what he has been doing well for even longer than that is facilitating. Booker averages 6.9 assists per game so far this season – exactly the same as what he averaged last season – but that number is up to just under 9 per game in the seven games since he has returned from injury. In that time, Booker has managed at least 8 dimes six out of seven times, but despite that his line is set at 7.5. Granted that is above his season average, but having got there six out of the last seven games he appears like a good shot of getting there again given he is clearly spending an increased amount of time on the ball in that time – unsurprising given that Bradley Beal’s move to the bench has coincided with that uptick in Booker’s numbers. What’s more, Booker will likely be hounded by one of the best defenders in the league in Dyson Daniels in this game. This was one of the primary reasons we avoided going on the points over for this one, but it could counterintuitively have a positive impact on his assist numbers. Booker will still spend plenty of time on the ball, but Daniels will make it difficult for him to get off good looks, and Booker will likely be looking to facilitate a little more than usual. Having already passed this number in all but one game this season, that added reason for Booker to play a facilitatory role in this game makes this an even better bet.

Nuggets -4.5 @ $1.89 with QuestBet

Neither the Mavericks nor the Nuggets boasts the most well-rounded roster in the league, with each of them heavily reliant on their top-end talent. Fortunately, both of them have plenty, the Mavericks in the form of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, the Nuggets in the form of the best player in the world in Nikola Jokic. Unfortunately for the Mavericks, however, Doncic has been out for a while and will remain that way for a few more weeks, while Irving is questionable for this game. Unsurprisingly, they have struggled in Doncic’s absence, and while they managed to snare an unexpected big win over the Lakers without either of their backcourt stars, it’s hard to see that continuing. Without Irving as well as Doncic, this is not a particularly good team, and even with Irving out there the results have not been very flattering. The Nuggets, meanwhile, are in a nice vein of form which has seen them work their way up the Western Conference standings. They now find themselves in 4th spot on the back of seven wins from their last ten games, while they have also won four of their last five – the only loss during that time coming against perhaps the best team in the league in the Celtics. The Nuggets also just beat the Mavericks by 11 points in Dallas in a strangely topsy turvy game with a whole lot of lopsided quarters, but in the last of them the Nugs showed how much better than the injury-ravaged Mavs they are by outscoring them 33-12. Don’t expect that kind of dominance throughout the course of this game, but Denver should still be able to do enough to win their second in a row against Dallas by comfortably more than the line set for this game by betting sites.