NBA Expert Tips and Best Bets | February 16

Friday, Australia time, is set to be a pretty quiet day on the NBA front, with only three games scheduled. First, the Bucks head to Memphis to take on the undermanned Grizzlies, before the Jazz host the Warriors and then the Blazers host the Timberwolves to round out the day’s action. Three games, of course, means one tip per game to get to our three best bets of the day – check them out below. 

Bucks -10.5  | $1.97 with BlueBet 

The Grizzlies have had a really rough run with injury this season, and are currently being forced to play a team which is nowhere near their best available. For a time they did a pretty good job of remaining competitive and to an extent they still are, but there is no ignoring the fact that they had lost nine games on the trot prior to their most recent outing against the Rockets on Thursday. Each of those losses has been by at least six points and the last six of them have been by at least eight points, numbers which are only marginally below the line set for this game against a team which is a lot better than many of the sides which have beaten them of late. The Bucks are coming off a stinker of a performance against the Heat and have had a few difficulties of late, but it’s still going to be Giannis Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard and co facing off against Jaren Jackson Jr and….Vince Williams Jr? This difficult period is actually a good opportunity for the Grizzlies’ youngsters to get some NBA playing time and some of them look like they could be players, but the team they’re fielding at the moment isn’t capable of winning too often and will significantly less talented than the Bucks. What’s more, Memphis will be on the second leg of a back to back, and as a young team that is not usually a recipe for a strong performances. This looks like a great spot for the Bucks to get their confidence back after a bad game against the Heat, and they can blow past this line for an easy win. 

Warriors to win outright  | $1.87 with GetSetBet 

The Warriors and the Jazz are right alongside one another in the Western Conference standings. That’s unexpected – the Warriors would not have expected to experience the drop that they have this season while the Jazz have outperformed everyone’s expectations. But the Warriors, despite the drop off of a couple of their older stars, are beginning to find the right balance of youth and experience and actually play some pretty decent basketball. The Jazz, in contrast, have not quite been playing the cohesive, team-oriented basketball which has seen them play so well at times this year. Prior to their matchup against the Clippers on Thursday, which still hasn’t finished at the time of writing, the Warriors had won five games on the trot. The Jazz, meanwhile have lost five of their last seven, including their most recent game against, of all teams, the Warriors, which they lost by a whopping 22 points. Despite that result, which though more significant than expected was indicative of the way the two teams have been playing of late, betting agencies have this one pegged as a pretty even game. Certainly the fact that this will be the second leg of a back to back for the Warriors plays a role in that, but it’s worth repeating that they just beat this team by 22 points. They probably won’t do that again, but even having played against a really good team the day prior, Golden State should be favourites in this game, and at close to even money they look like really good value. 

Rudy Gobert over 14.5 total match points | $1.90 with PlayUp 

There is some pretty simple logic which I am applying to this one. Rudy Gobert is never a focal point of any offence he plays in, but he is one of the most efficient finishers in the league – not too difficult when most of your shots are from within one-foot – and of late, his teammates have been getting him enough looks to consistently go over the line set for him by NBA betting sites. In each of his last three games he has scored at least 16 points, while that run also extends to six of his last seven games. He isn’t passing it by a huge margin – he’s never going to be a guy to put up 25 or 30 points – but we don’t need him to. He is consistently getting nine or ten looks per game as well as a handful of free throws, and that is typically enough to get him over this points total. What’s more, the Trail Blazers interior defence is not exactly league-leading – Deandre Ayton is no, well, Rudy Gobert on defence, and the 55.1 points per game that the Blazers allow in the paint is the fifth most in the league. This is exactly the kind of team that Gobert should excel against, and combining that with the fact that he is in an extended run of strong scoring form means that this looks like a really solid bet to round out the day.