NBA Expert Tips and Best Bets | Nov 17

After a big slate of games on Thursday Australia time, the NBA world will take a collective breath on Friday with just a couple of games taking place over the course of the day. That means there is invariably a little bit less opportunity for value, but it also means that we can delve a little bit deeper into the odds to find three of the best bets for the day. 

Over 242.5 Total Match Points | $1.90 @ BlueBet

The total points line for this game is set very high, but so it should be. The Pacers, in particular, have been a surprise packet so far this season in terms of their offense, putting up some huge numbers and leading the league in offensive rating at a huge 121.2 points per 100 possessions eight games into the season. The Bucks, meanwhile, have had some growing pains with their new look offense but are still putting up solid numbers and find themselves in the top ten in the league for offensive rating. What’s more, both these teams have been hot trash at the defensive end. For the Bucks, that probably won’t last, even if they will be worse at that end of the floor with Jrue Holiday gone and Damian Lillard replacing him, but they’re certainly struggling at the moment. And for the Pacers, big opposition scores are likely to be a fixture of the season. Four of their last five games have seen 249 points or more points scored, while the Bucks have hit at least 235 in all but one of their games this season. It might be a high line, but all signs point to the over 242.5 total match points being a good bet. 

Dejounte Murray Over 2.5 Threes Made | $2.20 @ PlayUp 

Dejounte Murray hasn’t exactly been renowned for his three-point shooting over his career, only once shooting over 34.4% from beyond the arc excluding his rookie season in which he played just 38 games. But this season, or at least in the last few games, he’s looked like a new man from deep. After hitting just 1 of 11 attempts in his first three games, the rangy Hawks guard has hit 14 in his last four games at a 50% clip, hitting at least three on three of those four occasions. Clearly at some point, Murray will regress to the mean; he’s not going to hit half of his threes for the rest of his season, and history would suggest he’s likely to be closer to the mid-30s in that regard. For the time being, however, clearly he is feeling good from deep, and this is not a bet about what he will shoot from out there for the rest of the season. Sometimes these bets are as simple as riding the hot hand, so that is exactly what we are doing in betting on Dejounte Murray to make over 2.5 three-pointers against the Magic. 

Bucks -3.5 | $1.90 @ GetSetBet 

The Pacers have started the season strongly with five wins from their opening eight games, but it remains a little early to get too excited about them just yet. Their offense has no doubt been impressive, with their offensive rating leading the league, but they’ve put up big numbers against a couple of average teams, and against the only contender they’ve played so far – the Celtics – they were absolutely hammered, going down 155-104. The Bucks, meanwhile, haven’t fired on all cylinders yet with their new look team, and yet they’ve still won five of their first seven including their last three. This season, they will almost certainly be a legitimate championship contender, while a best-case scenario for the Pacers will likely see them simply challenging for a playoff spot. There is a big gap between these two teams even if it hasn’t been as evident as it ultimately likely will be early in the season, which has opened the door for a Bucks line of -3.5 which looks pretty juicy.